A Theoretical and Conceptual Perspective on Macroeconomic Uncertainty in the Framework of Coronomic Crisis

Year 2022, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 16 - 31, 30.06.2022

Deniz Macit

Abstract

Although the literature on research examining the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic has developed rapidly, quantitative evidence for the effects of uncertainty on economic activity is still limited. The main purpose of this study is to examine the current literature by considering macroeconomic uncertainty in the context of Covid-19 and to synthesize the findings from the studies. Since the pandemic is still an ongoing process, the literature is growing rapidly, and therefore, it is hoped that it will facilitate studies investigating the links of Covid-19 with the economy by examining and synthesizing the main findings of the studies. The general scope of the study is to define the theoretical and conceptual framework for uncertainty, to examine the empirical literature before and after Covid-19 on the measurement of macroeconomic uncertainty as a qualitative research. According to the research results in the relevant literature, there is an expectation that economic units adopt a "wait and see" attitude, as the pandemic reduces confidence in economic activity and markets. The uncertainty created by Covid-19 significantly affects the economy and monetary policy management through various macroeconomic channels. It has been revealed that increasing uncertainty leads to permanent decreases in employment, price instability, deterioration in exchange rates and economic stagnation.

Keywords

Covid-19 Pandemic, Coronomic, Uncertainty, Macroeconomic Uncertainty, Monetary Policy

Koronomik Kriz Çerçevesinden Makro İktisadi Belirsizliğe Teorik ve Kavramsal Bir Bakış

Abstract

Covid-19 pandemisinin ekonomik sonuçlarını inceleyen araştırmalara yönelik literatür hızla gelişse de belirsizliğin ekonomik aktivite üzerindeki etkilerine yönelik kanıtlar henüz sınırlı sayıdadır. Bu çalışmanın temel amacı makroekonomik belirsizliği Covid-19 bağlamında ele alarak güncel literatürü incelemek ve çalışmalardan ortaya çıkan bulguları sentezlemektir. Pandeminin henüz devam eden bir süreç olmasından dolayı literatür hızla büyümektedir ve bu nedenle araştırmaların temel bulgularının incelenerek, sentezlenmesiyle Covid-19’un ekonomi ile bağlantılarını araştıran çalışmalarda kolaylık sağlaması umulmaktadır. Çalışmanın genel kapsamı belirsizliğe ilişkin teorik ve kavramsal çerçevenin tanımlanması, nitel bir araştırma olarak makroekonomik belirsizliğin ölçümüne ilişkin Covid-19 öncesi ve sonrası ampirik literatürün incelenmesidir. İlgili literatürdeki araştırma sonuçlarına göre pandemi ekonomik aktiviteye ve piyasalara olan güveni azalttığı için iktisadi birimlerin “bekle ve gör” tutumunu benimsedikleri bir beklenti söz konusudur. Covid-19’un yarattığı belirsizlik, çeşitli makroekonomik kanallar aracılığıyla ekonomiyi ve para politikası yönetimini önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Artan belirsizliğin istihdamda kalıcı düşüşlere, fiyat istikrarsızlıklarına, döviz kurlarında bozulmalara ve ekonomik durgunluklara yol açtığı ortaya konmuştur.

Keywords

Covid-19 Pandemisi, Koronomik, Belirsizlik, Makroekonomik Belirsizlik, Para Politikası

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