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ABD Doları ve AVRO Döviz Kurlarının Nümerik Desen Analizi

Year 2015, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 215 - 226, 31.12.2015

Murat Engin Akkaş

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, ABD Doları/TL ve AVRO/TL döviz kurlarının nümerik desenleri

1.1.2003-31.12.2014 dönemine ait veriler ile analiz edilmiştir. Döviz kurlarının analizi için

Newcomb-Benford Kanununun ikinci basamak referans dağılımı kullanılmıştır. Çalışmanın

sonucunda, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2010 ve 2014 yıllarında ABD Doları/TL’nin ve 2005, 2006, 2007,

2009 ve 2012 yıllarında AVRO/TL’nin nümerik desenlerinin Newcomb-Benford Kanununun

ikinci basamak referans dağılımına uygun olduğuna ilişkin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçlar

bulunmuştur.

Keywords

Newcomb-Benford Kanunu Döviz Kurları Ki-Kare Testi Kuiper Testi Öklid Uzaklığı

References

  • Abrantes-Metz, R., Villas-Boas, S. ve Judge, G. (2011). Tracking the Libor Rate, Applied Economics Letters, 18 (10): 893-899.
  • Aggarwal, R. ve Lucey, B. (2007). Psychological Barriers in Gold Prices?, Review of Financial Economics, 16 (2007): 217–230.
  • Akkaş, M. E. (2007). Denetimde Benford Kanununun Uygulanması, Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9 (1): 191-206.
  • Alali, F. ve Romero, S. (2013). Benford’s Law: Analyzing a Decade of Financial Data, Journal of Emerging Technologies in Accounting, 10 (1): 1-39.
  • Archambault, J. ve Archambault, M. (2011). Earnings Management Among Firms During The Pre-Sec Era: A Benford's Law Analysis, Accounting Historians Journal, 38 (2): 145-170.
  • Benford, F. (1938). The Law of Anomalous Numbers, Proceedings of American Philosophical Society, 78 (1): 551-572.
  • Boztepe, E. (2013). Benford Kanunu ve Muhasebe Denetiminde Kullanılabilirliği, LAÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4 (1): 73-83.
  • Carrera, C. (2015). Tracking Exchange Rate Management in Latin America, Review of Financial Economics, 25 (2015):35-41.
  • Cengiz, E. (2012). Hile Risklerinin Tespitinde Benford Analizi: Vaka Çalışması, MÖDAV, 3 (2012): 111-129.
  • Cho, W. ve Gaines B. (2007). Breaking the (Benford) Law, The American Statistician, 61 (3): 218- 223.
  • Ciaponi, F. ve Mandanici, F. (2014). Using Digital Frequencies To Detect Anomalies in Receivables and Payables: An Analysis of the Italian Universities, Journal of Economic and Social Development, 2 (1): 86-108.
  • Cleary, R. ve Thibodeau, J. (2005). Applying Digital Analysis Using Benford’s Law to Detect Fraud: The Dangers of Type I Errors, Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 24 (1): 77- 81.
  • Clippe, P. ve Ausloos, M. (2012). Benford’s Law and Theil Transform of Financial Data, Physica A, 391 (2012): 6556–6567.
  • Çalış, Y., Keleş, E. ve Engin, A. (2014). Hilenin Ortaya Çıkartılmasında Bilgi Teknolojilerinin Önemi ve Bir Uygulama, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 93-108.
  • Çinko, M. (2014). BIST-100 Getirileri Dağılımının Benford Kanunu ile Testi, Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting, 1 (3) 184-191.
  • De Ceuster, M., Dhaene, G. ve Schatteman, T. (1998). On the Hypothesis of Psychological Barriers in Stock Markets and Benford’s Law, Journal of Empirical Finance, 5 (1): 263-267.
  • Deckert, J., Myagkov M. ve Ordeshook, P. (2011). Benford’s Law and the Detection of Election Fraud, Political Analysis, 19 (3): 245–268.
  • Donaldson R. ve Kim, H. (1993). Price Barriers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28 (3): 313-330.
  • Dorfleitner, G. ve Klein, C. (2009). Psychological Barriers in European Stock Markets: Where are They, Global Finance Journal, 19 (1): 268–285.
  • Durtschi, C., Hillison, W. ve Pacini, C. (2004). The Effective Use of Benford's Law to Assist in Detecting Fraud in Accounting Data, Journal of Forensic Accounting, 5 (1): 17-34.
  • Dündar, U. (2014). Kamu Mali Denetiminde Istatistiksel Bir Yaklaşim: Benford Yasası, 29.
  • Türkiye Maliye Sempozyumu, Antalya, 126-137.
  • Gava, A. ve Vitiello, L. (2014). Inflation, Quarterly Balance Sheets and the Possibility of Fraud: Benford’s Law and the Brazilian Case, Journal of Accounting – Business & Management, 21 (1): 43-52.
  • Giles, D. E. (2007). Benford’s Law and Naturally Occurring Prices in Certain ebaY Auctions, Applied Economics Letters, 14 (1): 157–161.
  • Gonzalez-Garcia, J. ve Pastor, G. (2009). Benford's Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality. IMF Working Papers, 1-20.
  • Guan, L., Lin, F. ve Fang, W. (2008). Goal-Oriented Earnings Management: Evidence from Taiwanese Firms, Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 44 (4): 19-32.
  • Günnel, S. ve Todter, K. (2007). Does Benford’s Law Hold In Economic Research And Forecasting. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series, 1-32.
  • Hill, T. (1996). A Statistical Derivation Of The Significant-Digit Law, Statistical Science, 10(1):354- 363.
  • Holz, C. A. (2014). The Quality of China's GDP Statistics, China Economic Review, 30 (2014): 309- 338.
  • Johnson, G. ve Weggenmann, G. (2013). Exploratory Research Applying Benford’s Law To Selected Balances in The Financial Statements Of State, Governments, Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 17 (3): 31-44.
  • Karavardar, A. (2014). Benford’s Law and an Analysis in Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST), International Journal of Business and Management, 9 (4): 160-172.
  • Lanza, R., B. (2001). Review of the DATAS® Statistical Analysis Tool, Journal of Forensic Accounting, I (2000): 291-296.
  • Lin, F. ve Wu, S. (2014). Comparison of Cosmetic Earnings Management for the Developed Markets and Emerging Markets: Some Empirical Evidence from the United States and Taiwan, Economic Modelling, 36 (2014): 466–473.
  • Lin, F. ve Wu, S. (2015). Applying Digital Analysis to Investigate the Relationship between Corporate Governance and Earnings Management: An Empirical Analysis of Publicly Listed Companies in Taiwan, Contemporary Management Research, 11 (3): 209-222.
  • Lu, F. L. ve Giles, D., E. (2010). Benford’s Law and Psychological Barriers in Certain Ebay Auctions, Applied Economics Letters, 17 (1): 1005–1008.
  • Mebane, W. ve Klaver, J. (2015). Election Forensics: Strategies versus Election Frauds in Germany, Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago. Michalski, T. ve Stoltz, G. (2013). Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence That They Might, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95 (2): 591–616.
  • Newcomb, S. (1881). Note on the Frequency of the Use of Digits in Natural Numbers, American Journal of Mathematics, 4 (1): 39-40.
  • Nigrini, M. J. (1996). A Taxpayer Compliance Application of Benford’s Law, The Journal of the American Taxation Association, 18 (1): 72-91.
  • Nigrini, M. J. (1999). I've Got Your Number, Journal of Accountancy, 187 (1): 79-83.
  • Özer, G. ve Babacan, B. (2013). Benford’s Law and Digital Analysis: Application on Turkish Banking Sector, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4 (1): 29-41.
  • Petucci, S. D. (2005). Benford’s Law: Can It Be Used to Detect Irregularities in First Party Automobile Insurance Claims?, Journal of Economic Crime Management, 3 (1): 1-35.
  • Pinkham, R. (1961). On The Distribution of the First Significant Digits, Annals of Mathematical Statistic, 32 (1): 1223-1230.
  • Rauch, B., Göttsche, M., Brähler, G. ve Kronfeld, T. (2014). Deficit Versus Social Statistics: Empirical Evidence for the Effectiveness of Benford’s Law, Applied Economics Letters, 21(3): 147–151.
  • Roukema, B. (2014). A First-Digit Anomaly in the 2009 Iranian Presidential Election, Journal of Applied Statistics, 41 (1): 164-199.
  • Skousen, C., Guan, L. ve Wetzel, T. (2004). Anomalies and Unusual Patterns in Reported Earnings: Japanese Managers, Round Earnings, Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 15 (3): 212-234.
  • Thomas, J. K. (1989). Unusual Patterns in Reported Earnings, The Accounting Review, 64 (4): 773- 787.
  • Tödter, K. (2009). Benford’s Law as an Indicator of Fraud in Economics, German Economic Review, 10 (3): 339–351.
  • Uyar, A. ve Uzuner, M. T. (2014). Benford Yasasının Sermaye Piyasasında Faaliyet Gösteren Aracı Kurumların Konsolide Bilançolarına Uygulanması, Trakya University Journal of Social Science, 16 (1): 87-97.
  • Uzuner, M. T. (2014). Benford Yasasının Borsa İstanbul’da İşlem Gören Bankaların Konsolide Bilançolarına Uygulanması, Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5 (10): 73-82.
  • Yanık, R. ve Samancı T. (2013). Benford Kanunu ve Muhasebe Verilerinde Uygulanmasına Ait Kamu Sektöründe Bir Uygulama, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17 (1): 335-348.
  • Yıldırım, H. ve İnel, M. (2012). Muhasebe Denetiminde Örnekleme Tekniklerinin Değerlendirilmesi Üzerine Bir İnceleme, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 32 (1): 261- 276.

Year 2015, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 215 - 226, 31.12.2015

Murat Engin Akkaş

Abstract

References

  • Abrantes-Metz, R., Villas-Boas, S. ve Judge, G. (2011). Tracking the Libor Rate, Applied Economics Letters, 18 (10): 893-899.
  • Aggarwal, R. ve Lucey, B. (2007). Psychological Barriers in Gold Prices?, Review of Financial Economics, 16 (2007): 217–230.
  • Akkaş, M. E. (2007). Denetimde Benford Kanununun Uygulanması, Gazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9 (1): 191-206.
  • Alali, F. ve Romero, S. (2013). Benford’s Law: Analyzing a Decade of Financial Data, Journal of Emerging Technologies in Accounting, 10 (1): 1-39.
  • Archambault, J. ve Archambault, M. (2011). Earnings Management Among Firms During The Pre-Sec Era: A Benford's Law Analysis, Accounting Historians Journal, 38 (2): 145-170.
  • Benford, F. (1938). The Law of Anomalous Numbers, Proceedings of American Philosophical Society, 78 (1): 551-572.
  • Boztepe, E. (2013). Benford Kanunu ve Muhasebe Denetiminde Kullanılabilirliği, LAÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4 (1): 73-83.
  • Carrera, C. (2015). Tracking Exchange Rate Management in Latin America, Review of Financial Economics, 25 (2015):35-41.
  • Cengiz, E. (2012). Hile Risklerinin Tespitinde Benford Analizi: Vaka Çalışması, MÖDAV, 3 (2012): 111-129.
  • Cho, W. ve Gaines B. (2007). Breaking the (Benford) Law, The American Statistician, 61 (3): 218- 223.
  • Ciaponi, F. ve Mandanici, F. (2014). Using Digital Frequencies To Detect Anomalies in Receivables and Payables: An Analysis of the Italian Universities, Journal of Economic and Social Development, 2 (1): 86-108.
  • Cleary, R. ve Thibodeau, J. (2005). Applying Digital Analysis Using Benford’s Law to Detect Fraud: The Dangers of Type I Errors, Auditing: A Journal of Practice & Theory, 24 (1): 77- 81.
  • Clippe, P. ve Ausloos, M. (2012). Benford’s Law and Theil Transform of Financial Data, Physica A, 391 (2012): 6556–6567.
  • Çalış, Y., Keleş, E. ve Engin, A. (2014). Hilenin Ortaya Çıkartılmasında Bilgi Teknolojilerinin Önemi ve Bir Uygulama, Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, 93-108.
  • Çinko, M. (2014). BIST-100 Getirileri Dağılımının Benford Kanunu ile Testi, Journal of Economics, Finance and Accounting, 1 (3) 184-191.
  • De Ceuster, M., Dhaene, G. ve Schatteman, T. (1998). On the Hypothesis of Psychological Barriers in Stock Markets and Benford’s Law, Journal of Empirical Finance, 5 (1): 263-267.
  • Deckert, J., Myagkov M. ve Ordeshook, P. (2011). Benford’s Law and the Detection of Election Fraud, Political Analysis, 19 (3): 245–268.
  • Donaldson R. ve Kim, H. (1993). Price Barriers in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 28 (3): 313-330.
  • Dorfleitner, G. ve Klein, C. (2009). Psychological Barriers in European Stock Markets: Where are They, Global Finance Journal, 19 (1): 268–285.
  • Durtschi, C., Hillison, W. ve Pacini, C. (2004). The Effective Use of Benford's Law to Assist in Detecting Fraud in Accounting Data, Journal of Forensic Accounting, 5 (1): 17-34.
  • Dündar, U. (2014). Kamu Mali Denetiminde Istatistiksel Bir Yaklaşim: Benford Yasası, 29.
  • Türkiye Maliye Sempozyumu, Antalya, 126-137.
  • Gava, A. ve Vitiello, L. (2014). Inflation, Quarterly Balance Sheets and the Possibility of Fraud: Benford’s Law and the Brazilian Case, Journal of Accounting – Business & Management, 21 (1): 43-52.
  • Giles, D. E. (2007). Benford’s Law and Naturally Occurring Prices in Certain ebaY Auctions, Applied Economics Letters, 14 (1): 157–161.
  • Gonzalez-Garcia, J. ve Pastor, G. (2009). Benford's Law and Macroeconomic Data Quality. IMF Working Papers, 1-20.
  • Guan, L., Lin, F. ve Fang, W. (2008). Goal-Oriented Earnings Management: Evidence from Taiwanese Firms, Emerging Markets Finance & Trade, 44 (4): 19-32.
  • Günnel, S. ve Todter, K. (2007). Does Benford’s Law Hold In Economic Research And Forecasting. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper Series, 1-32.
  • Hill, T. (1996). A Statistical Derivation Of The Significant-Digit Law, Statistical Science, 10(1):354- 363.
  • Holz, C. A. (2014). The Quality of China's GDP Statistics, China Economic Review, 30 (2014): 309- 338.
  • Johnson, G. ve Weggenmann, G. (2013). Exploratory Research Applying Benford’s Law To Selected Balances in The Financial Statements Of State, Governments, Academy of Accounting and Financial Studies Journal, 17 (3): 31-44.
  • Karavardar, A. (2014). Benford’s Law and an Analysis in Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST), International Journal of Business and Management, 9 (4): 160-172.
  • Lanza, R., B. (2001). Review of the DATAS® Statistical Analysis Tool, Journal of Forensic Accounting, I (2000): 291-296.
  • Lin, F. ve Wu, S. (2014). Comparison of Cosmetic Earnings Management for the Developed Markets and Emerging Markets: Some Empirical Evidence from the United States and Taiwan, Economic Modelling, 36 (2014): 466–473.
  • Lin, F. ve Wu, S. (2015). Applying Digital Analysis to Investigate the Relationship between Corporate Governance and Earnings Management: An Empirical Analysis of Publicly Listed Companies in Taiwan, Contemporary Management Research, 11 (3): 209-222.
  • Lu, F. L. ve Giles, D., E. (2010). Benford’s Law and Psychological Barriers in Certain Ebay Auctions, Applied Economics Letters, 17 (1): 1005–1008.
  • Mebane, W. ve Klaver, J. (2015). Election Forensics: Strategies versus Election Frauds in Germany, Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago. Michalski, T. ve Stoltz, G. (2013). Do Countries Falsify Economic Data Strategically? Some Evidence That They Might, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 95 (2): 591–616.
  • Newcomb, S. (1881). Note on the Frequency of the Use of Digits in Natural Numbers, American Journal of Mathematics, 4 (1): 39-40.
  • Nigrini, M. J. (1996). A Taxpayer Compliance Application of Benford’s Law, The Journal of the American Taxation Association, 18 (1): 72-91.
  • Nigrini, M. J. (1999). I've Got Your Number, Journal of Accountancy, 187 (1): 79-83.
  • Özer, G. ve Babacan, B. (2013). Benford’s Law and Digital Analysis: Application on Turkish Banking Sector, Business and Economics Research Journal, 4 (1): 29-41.
  • Petucci, S. D. (2005). Benford’s Law: Can It Be Used to Detect Irregularities in First Party Automobile Insurance Claims?, Journal of Economic Crime Management, 3 (1): 1-35.
  • Pinkham, R. (1961). On The Distribution of the First Significant Digits, Annals of Mathematical Statistic, 32 (1): 1223-1230.
  • Rauch, B., Göttsche, M., Brähler, G. ve Kronfeld, T. (2014). Deficit Versus Social Statistics: Empirical Evidence for the Effectiveness of Benford’s Law, Applied Economics Letters, 21(3): 147–151.
  • Roukema, B. (2014). A First-Digit Anomaly in the 2009 Iranian Presidential Election, Journal of Applied Statistics, 41 (1): 164-199.
  • Skousen, C., Guan, L. ve Wetzel, T. (2004). Anomalies and Unusual Patterns in Reported Earnings: Japanese Managers, Round Earnings, Journal of International Financial Management and Accounting, 15 (3): 212-234.
  • Thomas, J. K. (1989). Unusual Patterns in Reported Earnings, The Accounting Review, 64 (4): 773- 787.
  • Tödter, K. (2009). Benford’s Law as an Indicator of Fraud in Economics, German Economic Review, 10 (3): 339–351.
  • Uyar, A. ve Uzuner, M. T. (2014). Benford Yasasının Sermaye Piyasasında Faaliyet Gösteren Aracı Kurumların Konsolide Bilançolarına Uygulanması, Trakya University Journal of Social Science, 16 (1): 87-97.
  • Uzuner, M. T. (2014). Benford Yasasının Borsa İstanbul’da İşlem Gören Bankaların Konsolide Bilançolarına Uygulanması, Finansal Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 5 (10): 73-82.
  • Yanık, R. ve Samancı T. (2013). Benford Kanunu ve Muhasebe Verilerinde Uygulanmasına Ait Kamu Sektöründe Bir Uygulama, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17 (1): 335-348.
  • Yıldırım, H. ve İnel, M. (2012). Muhasebe Denetiminde Örnekleme Tekniklerinin Değerlendirilmesi Üzerine Bir İnceleme, Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 32 (1): 261- 276.
There are 51 citations in total.

Details

Journal Section Articles
Authors

Murat Engin Akkaş

Publication Date December 31, 2015
Published in Issue Year 2015 Volume: 5 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Akkaş, M. E. (2015). ABD Doları ve AVRO Döviz Kurlarının Nümerik Desen Analizi. Karabük Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 5(2), 215-226.
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