İklim değişikliği çağında Türkiye'de plaj turizminin sürdürülebilirliği

Year 2025, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 213 - 223

İlknur Zeydan , Özgür Zeydan

https://doi.org/10.31822/jomat.2025-10-2-213

Abstract

Turizm, iklim değişikliğine karşı savunmasızdır. Türkiye önde gelen turizm destinasyonlarından biridir. Deniz, güneş ve kum üçlüsüne dayanan plaj turizmi, Türkiye'deki ana turizm türüdür. Bir destinasyondaki iklimsel konfor, turizmin çekiciliği açısından önemlidir. İklim değişikliğinin turizmi nasıl etkileyeceğinin bilinmesi turizm sektörünün sürdürülebilirliği açısından çok önemlidir. Bu nedenle, günümüz ve gelecekteki iklim koşullarını doğru değerlendirebilmek için iklim indekslerinin plaj turizmine uygulanması turizmin sürdürülebilirliği açısından çok önemlidir. Bu çalışmada, iklim değişikliğinin plaj turizmi üzerindeki etkisini belirlemek için Turizm için İklim Endeksi (CIT) uygulanmıştır. CIT özellikle plaj turizmi için tasarlanmıştır. Veriler Copernicus İklim Değişikliği Servisi'nden (C3S) toplanmıştır. Hem tarihsel gözlemler hem de gelecekteki iklim projeksiyonları kullanılmıştır. Sera gazı salınımı yapan ülkelerin net sıfır hedefleri göz önünde bulundurularak sadece Temsili Konsantrasyon Yolları (RCP) 4.5 senaryosu uygulanmıştır. CIT haritalarını görselleştirmek için Panoply yazılımı kullanılmıştır. Türkiye'de plaj turizminin geleceği yakın (2021-2040), orta (2041-2060) ve geç yüzyıl (2081-2100) için değerlendirilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, Akdeniz ve Ege kıyılarının yaz aylarında plaj turizmi için uygun olmaya devam edeceği gösterilmiştir. Yüzyılın sonlarında, ısınan sıcaklıklar nedeniyle Akdeniz kıyılarında ideal koşullar kabul edilebilir düzeye kayabilir. Öte yandan, Karadeniz kıyılarının CIT puanları daha düşük olacak ve RCP 4.5 senaryosu altında bu bölgenin sadece bir kısmı kabul edilebilir iklim koşullarına sahip olacaktır. Marmara Bölgesi çevresindeki kıyı şeridi, Ege ve Karadeniz kıyıları arasında bir geçişi temsil edecektir.

Keywords

Sahil Turizmi, İklim Değişikliği, Turizm İçin İklim Endeksi (CIT), Sürdürülebilirlik, Türkiye

Sustainability of beach tourism in Türkiye in the era of climate change

Abstract

Tourism is vulnerable to climate change. Türkiye is one of the leading tourism destinations. Beach tourism, based on the trio of sea, sun, and sand, is the main type of tourism in Türkiye. Climatic comfort in a destination is important for tourism attractiveness. Knowing how climate change will affect tourism is very important for the sustainability of the tourism sector. Therefore, applying climate indices to beach tourism in order to accurately evaluate climate conditions today and in the future is very important for the sustainability of tourism. In this study, to determine the impact of climate change on beach tourism the Climate Index for Tourism (CIT) is applied. CIT is specifically designed for beach tourism. Data is gathered from the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). Both historical observations and future climate projections are used. Considering the net zero targets of greenhouse gas emitter countries, only Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 scenario is implemented. Panoply software is used to visualize CIT maps. The future of beach tourism in Türkiye is evaluated for near (2021-2040), mid (2041-2060) and late-century (2081-2100). As a result, it has been shown that the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts will continue to be suitable for beach tourism in the summer. In the late century, due to warming temperatures, ideal conditions may shift to acceptable on the Mediterranean coasts. On the other hand, the CIT scores of the Black Sea shores will be lower and only part of this region will have acceptable climatic conditions under the RCP 4.5 scenario. The coastlines around the Marmara Region will represent a transition between the Aegean and Black Sea coasts.

Keywords

beach tourism, climate change, climate index for tourism (CIT), sustainability, Türkiye

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