The Relationship of the Between Food Insecurity, External Debt Stock and Import: Quantile Regression Analysis

Year 2019, , 494 - 507, 22.01.2019

Atilla Ahmet Uğur , Demet Özocaklı

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.446418

Abstract

In the world increasing awareness of food insecurity has been of
great importance for underceveloped and developing countries. In recent years
these countries have made little progress in reducing food insecurity. External
debt stocks and food imports of these countries have been an upward trend
during the same period. In this study impact of long term external debt and
food imports to merchandise imports on food security was tested with Quantile
Regression Method for period 2000-2015 and 50 underdeveloped and developing
countries which have undernourishment prevalence. Quantile Regression Method
reveals the whole picture by taking the entire distribution of the dependend
variable though the determined quantiles contrary to the mean estimation
methods. As a result of the analysis, it has been revealed that the increase in
the long term external debt stock and food imports to merchandise imports
reduced food insecurity in food insecure countries especially. This result is
thought to be consistent with expectations.

Keywords

Food Insecurity, External Debt Stock, Food Import

Gıda Güvencesizliği, Dış Borç Stoku ve İthalat İlişkisi: Kantil Regresyon Analizi

Abstract

Dünyada farkındalığı artan gıda güvencesizliği az gelişmiş ve
gelişmekte olan ülkeler için büyük önem arz etmektedir. Son yıllarda bu ülkeler
gıda güvencesizliğini azaltma yönünde az da olsa ilerleme kaydetmiştir. Bu
ülkelerin gıda ithalatı ve dış borç stoku aynı dönem içerisinde artış trendi
içerisine girmiştir. Bu çalışmada uzun dönem dış borç stoku ve gıda ithalatının
mal ithalatına oranının gıda güvencesizliğine etkisi 2000-2015 dönemi ve 50
yetersiz beslenme yaygınlığına sahip az gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülke için
Kantil Regresyon Yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Kantil Regresyon Yöntemi ortalama
tahmin yöntemlerinin aksine belirlenen kantiller yoluyla bağımlı değişkenin tüm
dağılımını ele alarak tüm resmi ortaya çıkartmaktadır. Yapılan analiz sonucunda
uzun dönem dış borç stoku ve gıda ithalatının mal ithalatına oranındaki artışın
gıda güvencesizliğini genellikle daha gıda güvencesiz ülkelerde daha çok
azalttığı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu sonucun beklentilerle uyumlu olduğu
düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

Gıda Güvencesizliği, Dış Borç Stoku, Gıda İthalatı

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