COVID-19 PANDEMİSİNİN TURİZM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: BORSA İSTANBUL TURİZM ENDEKSİ ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Year 2020, , 71 - 86, 31.10.2020

Yasemin Korkut , Mert Eker , Feyyaz Zeren , Remzi Altunışık

https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.774557

Cited By: 2

Abstract

11 Mart 2020 itibariyle pandemi olarak ilan edilen Covid-19 Coronavirüs salgınının tüm sektörleri etki altına aldığı piyasalarda kabul edilen bir gerçektir. Bu çalışmada Covid-19’un en çok etki altına aldığı sektörlerden biri olan turizm üzerindeki etkisinin ortaya konması amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda Covid-19 günlük vaka ve Covid-19 günlük ölüm sayılarının Borsa İstanbul Turizm Endeksi (BIST Turizm) üzerindeki etkisi ARDL sınır testi vasıtasıyla incelenmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda hem vaka hem de ölüm sayıları bazında Covid-19’un turizm ile eşbütünleşik bir yapıya sahip olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönemli katsayı tahminleri sonucunda Covid-19’un BIST Turizm endeksinde yer alan firmaların hisse senedi fiyatlarını negatif yönlü olarak etkilediği anlaşılmaktadır. Öte yandan uzun dönemli katsayı tahminleri yapıldığında, söz konusu ilişkinin pozitif yönlü olduğu görülmüştür. Buna göre normalleşme süreci sonrasında turizm firmalarının hisse senedi fiyatlarında toparlanmaların gerçekleştiği görülmektedir. Söz konusu bulgular, pandemi sonrası turizm sektöründeki toparlanmaların giderek artacağına işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Covid-19, Pandemi, BIST Turizm Endeksi, Turizm Ekonomisi, ARDL Sınır Testi

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON TOURISM: AN APPROACH ON BORSA İSTANBUL TOURISM INDICES

Abstract

The fact that the Covid-19 Coronavirus epidemic, which was declared as a pandemic as of March 11, 2020, affects all sectors is an accepted fact in all markets. In this paper, it is aimed to reveal the effect of Covid-19 on tourism, which is one of the sectors that are most affected. Accordingly, the effect of Covid-19-daily cases and Covid-19 daily deaths on the Borsa Istanbul Tourism Index (BIST Tourism) was examined through the ARDL bound test. As a result of the analysis, it has been determined that Covid-19 has a structure that is cointegrated with tourism in terms of both case and death numbers. As a result of the short-term coefficient estimates, it is understood that the stock prices of the companies in Covid-19's BIST Tourism index affect negatively. On the other hand, when long term coefficient estimates are made, it is seen that the relationship is positive. Accordingly, after the normalization process, it is seen that the stock prices of tourism companies recovered. These findings indicate that the recovery in the tourism sector will increase after the pandemic.

Keywords

Covid-19, Pandemic, BIST Tourism Index, Tourism Economy, ARDL Bound Test

References

• Acar, Y. (2020). Yeni koronavirüs (covid-19) salgını ve turizm faaliyetlerine etkisi. Güncel Turizm Araştırmaları Dergisi 4 (1), 7-21. doi: 10.32572/guntad.703410
• Bakar, N. A. & Rosbi, S. (2020). Effect of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) to tourism industry. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science (IJAERS) 7 (4), 189-193. doi: 10.22161/ijaers.74.23
• Brahmbhatt, M. & Dutta, A. (2008). On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks. The World Bank. doi: 10.1596/1813-9450-4466
• Chinazzi, M., Davis, J. T., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., Piontti, A. P., Mu, K., Rossi, L., Sun, K., Viboud, C., Xiong, X., Yu, H., Halloran, M. H., Longini Jr., I. M. & Vespignani, A. (2020). The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Science 368 (6489), 395–400. doi: 10.1126/science.aba9757
• Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., Kim, D. & Perron, P. (2009). GLS-Based unit root tests with multiple structural breaks both under the null and the alternative hypotheses, Econometric Theory 25 (6), 1754-1792. doi: 10.1017/S0266466609990326
• Covid-19 Canlı İstatistik Portalı, www.worldometers.info, Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2020
• Çelik, M. S. & Koç, R. (2019). Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki uçak krizinin Borsa İstanbul (BIST) turizm ve enerji şirket hisselerine etkisi üzerine bir event study analizi. Niğde Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi 1 (1). 1-15.
• Çoban, B. Firuzan, E. & Oğuzhan, A. (2018). Farklı varyanslık ve yapısal kırılmalar altında ekonomik büyüme ile turizm ilişkisinin incelenmesi, Trakya Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 20 (1), 319-337. doi: 10.26468/trakyasobed.382258
• Davies, S. E. (2013). National security and pandemics. Erişim tarihi: 26.07.2020, https://www.un.org/en/chronicle/article/national-security-and-pandemics
• Dünya Sağlık Örgütü,DSÖ (2020a). SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome). Erişim Tarihi: 03.05.2020, https://www.who.int/ith/diseases/sars/en/
• Dünya Sağlık Örgütü, DSÖ (2020b). Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Erişim Tarihi: 02.05.2020, https://www.who.int/westernpacific/emergencies/covid-19
• Dünya Sağlık Örgütü, DSÖ (2020c). WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard. Erişim Tarihi: 02.05.2020, https://covid19.who.int/
• Dünya Turizm Örgütü (2020). Impact assessment of the Covid-19 outbreak on international tourism. Erişim Tarihi: 03.07.2020, https://www.unwto.org/impact-assessment-of-the-covid-19-outbreak-on-international-tourism
• Edmunds, J. & Gay, N. (2006). Integrating epidemiological and economic modeling: The data nexus. In R. D. Smith, N. Drager & M. Hardimann (Eds.), The rapid assessment of the economic impact of public health emergencies of international concern (Chapter 8). Oxford University Press.
• Fernandes, N. (2020). Economic effects of coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) on the world economy. SSRN:https://ssrn.com/abstract=3557504
• Ghosh, S. (2020). Asymmetric impact of COVID-19 induced uncertainty on inbound Chinese tourists in Australia: insights from nonlinear ARDL model. Quantitative Finance and Economics 4 (2), 343-364. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2020016
• Gössling, S., Scott, D. & Hall, C. M. (2020). Pandemics, tourism and global change: a rapid assessment of COVID-19. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1-20. doi: 10.1080/09669582.2020.1758708
• Harvey, D. I., Leybourne, S. J. & Xiao, B. (2008). A powerful test for linearity when the order of integration is unknown. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics 12 (3), 1-22. doi: 10.2202/1558-3708.1582
• Hoque, A., Shikha, F. A., Hasanat, M. W., Arif, I. & Hamid A. B. A. (2020). The effect of coronavirus (COVID-19) in the tourism industry in China. Asian Journal of Multidisciplinary Studies 3 (1), 52-58.
• Im, K. S., Lee, J. & Tieslau, M. A. (2014). More powerful unit root tests with non-normal errors. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt (pp. 315-342). New York: Springer.
• Investing.com Portföy Yönetimi Portalı, www.tr.investing.com, Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2020
• Kamuyu Aydınlatma Platformu (2020). Endeksler. Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2020, https://www.kap.org.tr/tr/Endeksler Kalyankar, M. D. & Patil, P. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 pandemic on the tourism sector. Purakala (UGC Care Journal) 31 (8), 611-617.
• Karabulut, G., Bilgin, M. H., Demir, E. & Doker, A. C. (2020). How pandemics affect tourism: international evidence. SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3579530
• Karim, W., Haque, A., Anis, Z. & Ulfy, M. A. (2020). The Movement Control Order (MCO) for COVID-19 crisis and its impact on tourism and hospitality sector in Malaysia. International Tourism and Hospitality Journal 3 (2), 1-7.
• Kasare, K. S. (2020). Effects of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on tourism industry of India. Studies in Indian Place Names (UGC Care Journal) 40 (35), 362-365.
• Keogh-Brown, M. R. & Smith, R. D. (2008). The economic impact of SARS: how does the reality match the predictions?. Health policy 88 (1), 110-120. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2008.03.003
• Lee, J. & Strazicich, M.C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review Economics and Statistics 85 (4), 1082–1089. doi: 10.1162/003465303772815961
• McCall, B. (2020). COVID-19 and artificial intelligence: protecting health-care workers and curbing the spread. The Lancet Digital Health 2 (4), 166-167. doi: 10.1016/S2589-7500(20)30054-6
• Qiu, W., Rutherford, S., Mao, A. & Chu, C. (2017). The Pandemic and its impacts. Health, Culture and Society 9 (10), 1-11. doi: 10.5195/HCS.2017.221
• Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J. (2001), Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationship. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16 (3), 289–326. doi: 10.1002/jae.616
• Ramelli, S. & Wagner, A. F. (2020). Feverish stock price reactions to covid-19. Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper No. 20-12, 1-57.
• Sağlık Bakanlığı (2020a). Covid-19 Rehberi. Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2020, https://covid19bilgi.saglik.gov.tr/tr/covid-19-rehberi.html
• Sağlık Bakanlığı (2020b). Türkiye’de Güncel Durum. Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2020, https://covid19bilgi.saglik.gov.tr
• Smith, R. D. (2006). Responding to global infectious disease outbreaks: Lessons from SARS on the role of risk perception, communication and management. Social Science & Medicine 63 (12), 3113-3123. doi:10.1016/j.socscimed.2006.08.004
• Şahin, E., Konak, F. & Karaca, S. S. (2017). Türkiye ve Rusya arasındaki “uçak krizinin” Borsa İstanbul gıda, içecek ve turizm endeksleri üzerine etkisi. Business and Economics Research Journal 8 (3), 473-485. doi: 10.20409/berj.2017.61
• Şenol, Z. & Zeren, F. (2020). Coronavirus (Covid-19) and stock markets: The effects of the pandemic on the global economy. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 7 (4), 1-16.
• Tan, W., Zhao, X., Ma, X., Wang, W., Niu, P., Xu, W. & Wu, G. (2020). A novel coronavirus genome identified in a cluster of pneumonia cases—Wuhan, China 2019− 2020. China CDC Weekly 2 (4), 61-62. doi: 10.46234/ccdcw2020.017
• Türkiye Seyahat Acentaları Birliği (2020). Turizmin Ekonomideki Yeri. Erişim Tarihi: 08.05.2020, https://www.tursab.org.tr/istatistikler/turizmin-ekonomideki-yeri
• Verikios, G., Sullivan, M., Stojanovski, P., Giesecke, J. & Woo, G. (2015). Assessing regional risks from pandemic influenza: A scenario analysis. The World Economy. 1-31. doi: 10.1111/twec.12296
• Zeren, F. & Hizarcı, A. (2020). The impact of COVID-19 coronavirus on stock markets: evidence from selected countries. Muhasebe ve Finans İncelemeleri Dergisi 3 (1), 78-84.
• Zhang, D., Hu, M. & Ji, Q. (2020). Financial markets under the global pandemic of COVID-19. Finance Research Letters. doi: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101528
• Zivot, E. & Andrews, W.K. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil-price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10(3), 251-270. doi: 10.2307/1391541