Research Article
Year 2018,
Volume: 13 Issue: 49, 68 - 78, 31.01.2018
Abstract
Bu çalışmanın amacı, işsizlik ve ekonomik büyüme
arasındaki ters ilişkiyi açıklayan Okun yasasının Mısır için geçerliliğinin
test edilmesidir. Çalışmada bu amaca ulaşmak için 1970-2016 yılları arasındaki
işsizlik ve milli gelir verileri kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak Okun tarafından
ortaya konan model regresyon yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmiş, Okun
katsayısı tespit edilmiştir. Daha sonra, değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik
ilişkisinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla Granger Nedensellik testi uygulanmıştır.
Yapılan analiz sonucunda, Okun tarafından belirtilen şekilde katsayının işareti
negatif bulunmuş ancak katsayı yasa da belirtilenden çok düşük çıkmıştır.
İkinci aşamada yapılan nedensellik testinde de iki değişken arasında ilişki
bulunamamıştır. Sonuç olarak, katsayı Okun Yasasına uygun olarak negatif çıkmış
olsa da, hem nedensellik analizi sonucu dikkate alındığında hem de tarihsel
süreç göz önünde bulundurulduğun da Mısır için Okun yasasının iktisadi olarak
geçerli olamayacağı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
Keywords
References
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Ari, Ayşe. 2016. “Türkiye’deki Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisinin Analizi: Yeni Bir Eşbütünleşme Testi.” Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 4 (2). http://www.siyasetekonomiyonetim.org/index.php/seyad/article/view/412. Arshad, Zeeshan. 2007. “The Validity of Okun’s Law in the Swedish Economy.” Stockholm: Stockholm University. Attfield, Clifford L. F., and Brian Silverstone. 1997. “Okun’s Coefficient: A Comment.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 79 (2): 326–29. doi:10.1162/003465397556692. ———. 1998. “Okun’s Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables.” Journal of Macroeconomics 20 (3): 625–37. doi:10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00076-7. Ball, Laurence, Davide Furceri, Daniel Leigh, and Prakash Loungani. 2016. “Does One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun’s Law.” http://unassumingeconomist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/cross-country-evidence-on-okun-sep-2016-paris-workshop-draft-with-tables-and-charts.pdf. Bargawi, Hannah. 2014. “Economic Policies, Structural Change and the Roots of the ‘Arab Spring’ in Egypt.” Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 10 (3): 219–246. doi:10.1515/rmeef-2014-0034. BARIŞIK, Salih, Emrah İsmail ÇEVİK, and Nüket KIRCI ÇEVİK. 2010. “Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşımı.” Maliye Dergisi, no. 159 (Temmuz-Aralık): 88–102. Beaton, Kimberly. 2010. “Time Variation in Okun’s Law: A Canada and U.S. Comparison.” Bank of Canada Working Paper. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp10-7.pdf. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. 2004. “The Relationship between Output and Unemployment: Evidence from Greek Regions*.” Papers in Regional Science 83 (3): 611–20. doi:10.1111/j.1435-5597.2004.tb01928.x. Coen, Robert M., and Bert G. Hickman. 2006. “An Econometric Model of Potential Output, Productivity Growth, and Resource Utilization.” Journal of Macroeconomics 28 (4): 645–64. doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.01.002. Durech, Richard, Alexandru Minea, Lavinia Mustea, and Lubica Slusna. 2014. “Regional Evidence on Okun’s Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia.” Economic Modelling 42 (October): 57–65. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.039. El-Megharbel, Nihal. 2008. “The Impact Of Recent Macro And Labor Market Policies On Job Creation In Egypt.” In Egyptian Economy : Current Challenges and Future Prospects, edited by Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, 179–200. Cairo: The American University in Cairo Press. Elshamy, Hany. 2013. “The Relationship Between Unemployment and Output in Egypt.” Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, World Congress on Administrative and Political Sciences, 81 (Supplement C): 22–26. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.06.381. Eser, Burcin Yılmaz. 2014. “Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Unemployment: The Turkish Case. 9 (18): 26–47. Fouquau, Julien. 2008. “Threshold Effects in Okun’s Law: A Panel Data Analysis.” Economics Bulletin 5 (33): 1–14. Göçer, İsmet. 2015. “Okun Yasası: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama.” Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi 1 (1): 1–12. Hamia, Mohamad A. Abou. 2016. “Jobless Growth: Empirical Evidences from the Middle East and North Africa Region.” Journal for Labour Market Research 49 (3): 239–51. doi:10.1007/s12651-016-0207-z. Ikram, Khalid. 2006. The Egyptian Economy, 1952-2000 : Performance, Policies, and Issues. London ; New York: Routledge. Izyumov, Alexei, and John Vahaly. 2002. “The Unemployment–Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun’s Law Apply?” Economics of Planning 35 (4): 317–31. doi:10.1023/A:1024441219635. Lee, Jim. 2000. “The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence from OECD Countries.” Journal of Macroeconomics 22 (2): 331–56. doi:10.1016/S0164-0704(00)00135-X. Loría, Eduardo, and Leobardo de Jesús. 2007. “The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence from Mexico. A Quarterly Validation, 1985.1–2006.4.” http://www.economia.unam.mx/profesores/eloria/PDFs/Articulos/the_robustness_of-okuns_law.pdf. Malec, Karel, Shereen Gouda, Elena Kuzmenko, Daryoush Soleimani, Helena Řezbová, and Petra Šánová. 2016. “GDP Development and Employment in Egypt (2000-2013).” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 6 (1): 199–206. Moosa, I. 2008. “Economic Growth and Unemployment in Arab Countries: Is Okun’s Law Valid?” Journal of Development and Economic Policies 10 (2): 7–24. Moosa, Imad A. 1997. “A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun’s Coefficient.” Journal of Comparative Economics 24 (3): 335–56. doi:10.1006/jcec.1997.1433. ———. 1999. “Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun’s Coefficient A Structural Time Series Approach.” International Review of Economics & Finance 8 (3): 293–304. doi:10.1016/S1059-0560(99)00028-3. Okun, Arthur M. 1962. “‘Potential Gnp: Its Measurement and Significance.’” In Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, 89–104. Petkov, Boris. 2008. “The Labour Market and Output in the UK – Does Okun’s Law Still Stand?” Bulgarian National Bank. http://www.bnb.bg/bnbweb/groups/public/documents/bnb_publication/discussion_2008_69_en.pdf. Prachowny, Martin F. J. 1993. “Okun’s Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 75 (2): 331–36. doi:10.2307/2109440. Silverstone, Brian, and Richard Harris. 2001. “Testing for Asymmetry in Okun’s Law: A Cross-Country Comparison.” Economics Bulletin 5 (2): 1–13. Tatoğlu, Ferda Yerdelen. 2011. “The Long and Short Run Effects between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Europe,” January. http://openaccess.dogus.edu.tr/handle/11376/280. Villaverde, José, and Adolfo Maza. 2009. “The Robustness of Okun’s Law in Spain, 1980–2004.” Journal of Policy Modeling 31 (2): 289–97. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2008.09.003. Viren, Matti. 2001. “The Okun Curve Is Non-Linear.” Economics Letters 70 (2): 253–57. Weber, Christian E. 1995. “Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun’s Coefficient: A New Approach.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 10 (4): 433–45. doi:10.1002/jae.3950100407. World Bank. 2016. “Egypt, Arab Rep. | Data.” Accessed January 29. http://data.worldbank.org/country/egypt-arab-republic.
Year 2018,
Volume: 13 Issue: 49, 68 - 78, 31.01.2018
Abstract
References
- Abdih, Yasser. 2011. “Closing the Jobs Gap.” Finance & Development 48 (2): 36–39. Adanu, Kwami. 2005. “A Cross-Province Comparison of Okun’s Coefficient for Canada.” Applied Economics 37 (5): 561–70. AfDB, and OECD. 2008. African Economic Outlook 2008. Paris: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. http://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/content/book/aeo-2008-en. Akay, Hülya Kanalıcı, Nejla Adanur Aklan, and Mehmet Çinar. 2016. “TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİNDE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME VE İŞSİZLİK.” Yönetim ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi 14 (1): 209–26. Alissa, Sufyan. 2007. “The Political Economy of Reform in Egypt: Understanding the Role of Institutions.” Carnegie Papers 5. Washington, D.C: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. http://carnegieendowment.org/files/cmec5_alissa_egypt_final.pdf. Ari, Ayşe. 2016. “Türkiye’deki Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisinin Analizi: Yeni Bir Eşbütünleşme Testi.” Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi 4 (2). http://www.siyasetekonomiyonetim.org/index.php/seyad/article/view/412. Arshad, Zeeshan. 2007. “The Validity of Okun’s Law in the Swedish Economy.” Stockholm: Stockholm University. Attfield, Clifford L. F., and Brian Silverstone. 1997. “Okun’s Coefficient: A Comment.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 79 (2): 326–29. doi:10.1162/003465397556692. ———. 1998. “Okun’s Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables.” Journal of Macroeconomics 20 (3): 625–37. doi:10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00076-7. Ball, Laurence, Davide Furceri, Daniel Leigh, and Prakash Loungani. 2016. “Does One Law Fit All? Cross-Country Evidence on Okun’s Law.” http://unassumingeconomist.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/cross-country-evidence-on-okun-sep-2016-paris-workshop-draft-with-tables-and-charts.pdf. Bargawi, Hannah. 2014. “Economic Policies, Structural Change and the Roots of the ‘Arab Spring’ in Egypt.” Review of Middle East Economics and Finance 10 (3): 219–246. doi:10.1515/rmeef-2014-0034. BARIŞIK, Salih, Emrah İsmail ÇEVİK, and Nüket KIRCI ÇEVİK. 2010. “Türkiye’de Okun Yasası, Asimetri İlişkisi ve İstihdam Yaratmayan Büyüme: Markov-Switching Yaklaşımı.” Maliye Dergisi, no. 159 (Temmuz-Aralık): 88–102. Beaton, Kimberly. 2010. “Time Variation in Okun’s Law: A Canada and U.S. Comparison.” Bank of Canada Working Paper. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/wp10-7.pdf. Christopoulos, Dimitris K. 2004. “The Relationship between Output and Unemployment: Evidence from Greek Regions*.” Papers in Regional Science 83 (3): 611–20. doi:10.1111/j.1435-5597.2004.tb01928.x. Coen, Robert M., and Bert G. Hickman. 2006. “An Econometric Model of Potential Output, Productivity Growth, and Resource Utilization.” Journal of Macroeconomics 28 (4): 645–64. doi:10.1016/j.jmacro.2005.01.002. Durech, Richard, Alexandru Minea, Lavinia Mustea, and Lubica Slusna. 2014. “Regional Evidence on Okun’s Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia.” Economic Modelling 42 (October): 57–65. doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2014.05.039. El-Megharbel, Nihal. 2008. “The Impact Of Recent Macro And Labor Market Policies On Job Creation In Egypt.” In Egyptian Economy : Current Challenges and Future Prospects, edited by Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, 179–200. Cairo: The American University in Cairo Press. Elshamy, Hany. 2013. “The Relationship Between Unemployment and Output in Egypt.” Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, World Congress on Administrative and Political Sciences, 81 (Supplement C): 22–26. doi:10.1016/j.sbspro.2013.06.381. Eser, Burcin Yılmaz. 2014. “Ekonomik Büyüme ve İşsizlik İlişkisi: Türkiye Örneği.” The Relationship Between Economic Growth and Unemployment: The Turkish Case. 9 (18): 26–47. Fouquau, Julien. 2008. “Threshold Effects in Okun’s Law: A Panel Data Analysis.” Economics Bulletin 5 (33): 1–14. Göçer, İsmet. 2015. “Okun Yasası: Türkiye Üzerine Bir Uygulama.” Uluslararası Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi 1 (1): 1–12. Hamia, Mohamad A. Abou. 2016. “Jobless Growth: Empirical Evidences from the Middle East and North Africa Region.” Journal for Labour Market Research 49 (3): 239–51. doi:10.1007/s12651-016-0207-z. Ikram, Khalid. 2006. The Egyptian Economy, 1952-2000 : Performance, Policies, and Issues. London ; New York: Routledge. Izyumov, Alexei, and John Vahaly. 2002. “The Unemployment–Output Tradeoff in Transition Economies: Does Okun’s Law Apply?” Economics of Planning 35 (4): 317–31. doi:10.1023/A:1024441219635. Lee, Jim. 2000. “The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence from OECD Countries.” Journal of Macroeconomics 22 (2): 331–56. doi:10.1016/S0164-0704(00)00135-X. Loría, Eduardo, and Leobardo de Jesús. 2007. “The Robustness of Okun’s Law: Evidence from Mexico. A Quarterly Validation, 1985.1–2006.4.” http://www.economia.unam.mx/profesores/eloria/PDFs/Articulos/the_robustness_of-okuns_law.pdf. Malec, Karel, Shereen Gouda, Elena Kuzmenko, Daryoush Soleimani, Helena Řezbová, and Petra Šánová. 2016. “GDP Development and Employment in Egypt (2000-2013).” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues 6 (1): 199–206. Moosa, I. 2008. “Economic Growth and Unemployment in Arab Countries: Is Okun’s Law Valid?” Journal of Development and Economic Policies 10 (2): 7–24. Moosa, Imad A. 1997. “A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun’s Coefficient.” Journal of Comparative Economics 24 (3): 335–56. doi:10.1006/jcec.1997.1433. ———. 1999. “Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun’s Coefficient A Structural Time Series Approach.” International Review of Economics & Finance 8 (3): 293–304. doi:10.1016/S1059-0560(99)00028-3. Okun, Arthur M. 1962. “‘Potential Gnp: Its Measurement and Significance.’” In Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section of the American Statistical Association, 89–104. Petkov, Boris. 2008. “The Labour Market and Output in the UK – Does Okun’s Law Still Stand?” Bulgarian National Bank. http://www.bnb.bg/bnbweb/groups/public/documents/bnb_publication/discussion_2008_69_en.pdf. Prachowny, Martin F. J. 1993. “Okun’s Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates.” The Review of Economics and Statistics 75 (2): 331–36. doi:10.2307/2109440. Silverstone, Brian, and Richard Harris. 2001. “Testing for Asymmetry in Okun’s Law: A Cross-Country Comparison.” Economics Bulletin 5 (2): 1–13. Tatoğlu, Ferda Yerdelen. 2011. “The Long and Short Run Effects between Unemployment and Economic Growth in Europe,” January. http://openaccess.dogus.edu.tr/handle/11376/280. Villaverde, José, and Adolfo Maza. 2009. “The Robustness of Okun’s Law in Spain, 1980–2004.” Journal of Policy Modeling 31 (2): 289–97. doi:10.1016/j.jpolmod.2008.09.003. Viren, Matti. 2001. “The Okun Curve Is Non-Linear.” Economics Letters 70 (2): 253–57. Weber, Christian E. 1995. “Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun’s Coefficient: A New Approach.” Journal of Applied Econometrics 10 (4): 433–45. doi:10.1002/jae.3950100407. World Bank. 2016. “Egypt, Arab Rep. | Data.” Accessed January 29. http://data.worldbank.org/country/egypt-arab-republic.
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Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | January 31, 2018 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2018 Volume: 13 Issue: 49 |