1988-2017 Dönem Aralığı İçin Türkiye’de Mali Sürüklenme Etkisinin İncelenmesi ve Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2019, Volume: 14, 1 - 17, 27.03.2019

Selçuk Çağrı Esener , Burak Darıcı , Umutcan Memo

Abstract

Bu çalışmada daha önce sınırlı düzeyde akademik çalışmada ele alınmış bir olgu olan mali sürüklenme fenomeninin Türkiye ekonomisindeki durumu irdelenmiştir. Çeyrek asrı aşkın bir dönemi kapsayan analizlerde gelir vergisi, enflasyon ve büyüme değişkenleri arasındaki etkileşim önce tarihi gerçeklikleriyle ayrı ayrı ele alınmış; ardından birbirleri üzerindeki olası izdüşümleri tablolar vasıtasıyla sorgulanmaya çalışılmıştır. Konu özelinde teori, tarihçe ve yorumun bir bütün halinde değerlendirilmeye gayret edildiği görece kapsamlı bu çalışmada; son 30 yıl içerisinde yaşanan krizler ve bunların maliye ve iktisat politikalarına etkileri de göz ardı edilmemiştir. Bu gelişmeler kimi zaman borç, bankacılık, döviz ve finansman açığı şemsiyesi altında veya ulusal ya da uluslararası krizler başlığı ile isimlendirilip analiz edilse dahi, çalışmamız özelinde yalnızca, ihtiyari (iradi) maliye politikalarının sonraki yıl üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerine odaklanılmıştır. Çalışmada, bir otomatik stabilizatör olarak gelir vergisi tarife müdahalelerinin takip eden yıl verileri üzerinde istenilen etkiyi yaratamadığının en görünür olduğu yıllar 1988, 1994, 1999, 2009 ve 2012 olmuştur. Bu yıllardan özellikle sonuncusunun herhangi bir iktisadi kırılma dönemine isabet etmemesi (kriz ya da doğal afet gibi) dikkat çekicidir. Çalışmanın sonuç kısmında, çeşitli tespitler yanı sıra politika yapıcılara mali sürüklenmeden kaçınmaya yönelik önerilere de yer verilmiştir.

Keywords

Mali Sürüklenme, Gelir Vergisi Tarifeleri, Enflasyon, Maliye Politikası

Investigating and Analysing the Effects of Fiscal Drag for the Period of 1988-2017 in Turkey

Abstract

In this study fiscal drag phenomena, which has limitedly been discussed in academic level, was analyzed for the Turkish economy. In the analyzes including more than a quarter of a century, the interaction between income tax, inflation and growth variables were first reviewed separately with their historical backgrounds; then the possible projections between each other were tried to be questioned by using the tables. In this relatively comprehensive study in which theory, history and interpretation were evaluated as a whole, the crises in the last 30 years and their effects on fiscal and economic policies have not been ignored. Even though these events were sometimes named under the debt, banking, foreign currency and finance deficit, or entitled national or international crises, we focused only on the negative effects of voluntary (voluntary) fiscal policies on the following year. In the study, it was observed that the required effect of the income tax tariff interventions as an automatic stabilizer on the following year data was the least visible in the years 1988, 1994, 1999, 2009 and 2012. It is conspicuous that none of these years, particularly the last one, does not overlap with any economic break (crisis, natural disaster, etc.). In conclusion section of the study, besides our findings, some suggestions to policymakers for avoiding fiscal drag were made.

Keywords

Fiscal Drag, Income Tax Tariffs, Inflation, Fiscal Policy

References

• Agapitos, G. 1987. The Measurement of Fiscal Drag of the Personal Income Tax: The Case of Greece, 1972-1986. SPOUDAI-Journal of Economics and Business, 37(1-2), 99-112.
• Aktan C. C. 2002. Yoksullukla Mücadele Stratejileri, Kavramlar Sözlüğü. Ankara: Hak-İş Federasyonu Yayınları.
• Alexander, W. Robert J. 1997. Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence From a Growth Equation. Applied Economics, 29(2), 233-238.
• Aydın, M. ve Tan, S. 2016). Political Economy of Taxation. London: Ijopec Publication.
• Barro, R. J. 1995. Inflation and Economic Growth (No. w5326). National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Barro, R. J. and Sala-i-Martin 1995. Economic Growth. New York: McGraw Hill.
• Bishop, M. 2013. Economics: An A-Z Guide. London: The Economist.
• Blanchard, O., 2004. Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil, NBER Working Papers, No.10389.
• Blanchard, O. 2006. Macroeconomics. New Jersey: Pearson Prentica Hall.
• Brownlee, W.E. 2004. Federal Taxation in America. Cambridge: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Cambridge University Press.
• Bruno, M., & Easterly, W. 1996. Inflation and Growth: in Search af A Stable Relationship. Federal reserve Bank of st. louis Review, 78(May/June 1996).
• Clotfelter, C. T. 1984. Tax Cut Meets Bracket Creep: the Rise and Fall of Marginal Tax Rates, 1964-1984. Public Finance Quarterly, 12(2), 131-152.
• Council of Economic Advisers 1962. Economic Report of the President. Washington: USA Government Printing Office.
• Crane, S. E., ve Nourzad, F. 1986. Inflation and Tax Evasion: An Empirical Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 217-223
• David, D., Pedro, G. P., ve Paula, H. E. 2005. Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth: A New Panel-Data Approach. https://mpra.ub.unimuenchen.de/38225/1/MPRA_paper_38225.pdf , Erişim Tarihi: 07.09.2018.
• Edizdoğan, N. ve Çetinkaya, Ö. 2012. Vergilerin Ekonomik Analizi. Bursa: Dora Yayıncılık.
• Eğilmez, M. 2016. Kamu Maliyesi. İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi.
• Fratianni, M., Spinelli, F., 2001. Fiscal Dominance and Money Growth in Italy: The Long Record, Explorations in Economic History, 38, 252-272.
• Fuenmayor, A., Granell, R., Higón-Tamarit, F. J., ve Sanchis, J. A. 2005. Inequality Effects of Inflation: The'Bracket Creep'Effect in the Spanish Income Tax System. LINEEX Working Paper No. 08/05.
• Gelir İdaresi Başkanlığı (GİB). http://www.gib.gov.tr/, Erişim Tarihi: 04.09.2018.
• Heinemann, F. 2001. After The Death Of Inflation: Will Fiscal Drag Survive?. Fiscal Studies, 22(4), 527-546.
• Immervoll, H. 2005. Falling Up The Stairs: The Effects of “Bracket Creep” on Household Incomes. Review of Income and Wealth, 51(1), 37-62.
• International Monetary Found (IMF). International Financial Statistics Data, https://www.imf.org/en/Data, Erişim Tarihi: 02.09.2018.
• Kormendi, R., and Meguire, P. 1985. Macroeconomic Determinants of Growth: Cross-Country Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 16(2), 141-163.
• Levy, H., Nogueira, J. R., Siqueira, R. B. D., Immervoll, H., ve O'Donoghue, C. 2010. Simulating the Impact of Inflation on the Progressivity of Personal Income Tax In Brazil. Revista Brasileira de Economia, 64(4), 405-422.
• Mallik, G., and Chowdhury, A. 2001. Inflation and Economic Growth: Evidence from Four South Asian Countries. Asia-Pasific Deveoplopment Journal, 8(1), 123-135.
• Mankiw N. G. 2003. Principles of Economics. Melbourne: Cengage Learning Australia.
• Messere, K. 2000. 20th Century Taxes And Their Future. International Fiscal Documentation, 54(1), 2-29.
• Nelson, Rebecca M. 2018. Venezuela’s Economic Crisis: Issues for Congress. Washington D.C.: Library of Congress, Congressional Research Service.
• OECD. Database. https://data.oecd.org/, Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2018.
• OECD. Tax Database. http://www.oecd.org/tax/tax-policy/tax-database.htm, Erişim Tarihi: 24.08.2018.
• Pamuk, Ş. 2017. Türkiye’nin 200 Yıllık İktisadi Tarihi. İstanbul: Türkiye İş Bankası Kültür Yayınları.
• Prammer D. ve Reiss, L. 2015. Impact of Inflation on Fiscal Aggregates in Austria. Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), 1, 27- 41.
• Rosen, H. S. 2002. Public Finance. New York: McGraw-Hill.
• Saez, E. 2003. The Effect of Marginal Tax Rates on Income: A Panel Study of ‘Bracket Creep’. Journal of Public Economics, 87(5-6), 1231-1258.
• Sung-Kyu, L. E. E. 2009. The Effect of Fiscal Drag on Tax Revenue and Tax Burden. Presented at the Public Choice Annual Meeting, October.
• Şener, O. 2008. Kamu Ekonomisi. Ankara: Seçkin Yayıncılık.
• Tanner, E., Ramos, A., 2002. Fiscal Sustainability and Monetary Versus Fiscal Dominance: Evidence From Brazil, 1991-2000, IMF Working Papers, No. 02/5.
• Tanzi V. 1978. Inflation, Real Tax Revenue, and the Case for Inflationary Finance: Theory with an Application to Argentina. Staff Papers-International Monetary Fund, 25, 417- 451.
• World Bank, World Devolopment Indicators (WDI), http://databank.worldbank.org/data/source/world-development-indicators, Erişim Tarihi: 25.08.2018.