Konya Apa Barajı Havzasında Meteorolojik ve Hidrolojik Kuraklık Trend Analizi

Year 2023, Volume: 13 Issue: 1, 151 - 163, 30.06.2023

Türker Tuğrul , Mehmet Ali Hınıs

Abstract

Bir baraj havzası yönetiminde yağış ve akım parametreleri ile kuraklık değerlendirilmesi önemli bir yere sahiptir. Bu parametrelerdeki
değişimlerin tespit edilmesi gelecekle ilgili su kaynaklarının planlamasına katkıda bulunacaktır. Bu çalışmada Konya Kapalı Havzası
sınırları içerisinde bulunan Apa Barajı havzasına ait yağış ve akım verilerinin ve bu verilere bağlı elde edilen iki adet kuraklık indisinin
(Normalleştirilmiş Yağış İndisi (NYİ) ve Akım Kuraklık İndisi (AKİ)) trend analizi yapılmıştır. Kuraklık indislerinde 3, 6, 9 ve 12 aylık
yağış toplamlarına karşılık gelen indisler kullanılmıştır. Trend analizinde parametrik olmayan Mann-Kendall (MK), Spearman’s Rho
ve Yenilikçi Şen Trend Yöntemi (YŞTY) kullanılarak istatistiksel anlamda verilerde değişim olup olmadığı ve değişim trendinin hangi
yönde olduğu araştırılmıştır.
Trend analizinden elde edilen sonuçlar değerlendirildiğinde YŞTY’den edilen bulgularda tüm verilerde (yağış, akım, NYİ ve AKİ)
artan trendlerin, MK’den elde edilen bulgularda NYİ6, NYİ9 ve NYİ12’de (α=0.01 anlamlılık seviyesinde) artan trend, NYİ3 ve
AKİ12’de (α=0.10 α=0.05 anlamlılık seviyesinde sırasıyla) artan trend bulunmuş diğer verilerde trend anlamlı bulunmamıştır.
Spearman’s Rho testinde ise NYİ6, NYİ9 ve NYİ12’de (α=0.01 anlamlılık seviyesinde) artan trend bulunmuş, diğer verilerde trend
anlamlı bulunmamıştır. Yağış ve akım verilerinde; MK ve Spearman’s Rho testlerinde trend tespit edilemezken, YŞTY’de bütün
verilerde artan trendin meydana geldiği belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

Trend analizi, Kuraklık, Yağış, Yenilikçi Trend Analizi, Mann-Kendall, Spearman’s Rho, Baraj yönetimi

Supporting Institution

Aksaray Üniversitesi

Project Number

2022-010

Thanks

Bu çalışma gerçekleşmesinde, katkıda bulunan Aksaray Üniversitesi BAP Koordinasyon Birimine teşekkür ederiz.

Trend Analysis of Meteorological and Hydrological Drought at Apa Dam (Konya) Basin

Abstract

Evaluation of precipitation and flow parameters and drought are essential in the management of a dam basin. Determining the changes
in these parameters will contribute to the planning for the future of water resources. In this study, trend analysis of precipitation and
flow data of the Apa Dam basin located in the boundaries of Konya Closed Basin and two drought indices namely Standardized
Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI), obtained based on these data were performed. In the drought indices,
indices for the corresponding to the precipitation totals of 3, 6, 9 and 12 months were used. In trend analysis, non-parametric Mann-
Kendall (MK) test, Spearman’s Rho test and Innovative Trend Methods (ITA) were used to investigate whether there was a statistical
change in the data and in which direction the change trend was.
The results of trend analysis revealed that there is an increasing trend in all data in the findings obtained from ITA and increasing
trend in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α=0.01 significance level in the findings obtained from MK and increasing trend in SPI3 and SDI
12 in α=0.10 α=0.05 significance level respectively, but the trend was not statistically significant in other data. In Spearman’s Rho test,
on the other hand, an increasing trend was found in SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12 in α=0.01 significance level. However, the trend was not
statistically significant in other data.

Keywords

Trend analysis, Drought, Precipitation, Innovative Trend Analysis, Mann-Kendall, Spearman’s Rho, Dam management

Project Number

2022-010

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