BALKAN ÜLKELERİNDE İŞSİZLİK HİSTERİSİ VE DOĞAL ORAN HİPOTEZİNİN GEÇERLİLİĞİ: AMPİRİK BİR DEĞERLENDİRME

Year 2017, Volume: 8 Issue: 16, 295 - 317, 29.12.2017

Özgür Koçbulut Süleyman Bolat

Abstract

Çalışma, 7 Balkan ülkesinde doğal oran
hipotezi ve işsizlik histerisi yaklaşımlarının geçerliliğini 2004:1-2016:1
döneminde çeyreklik verilerle ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleri ile test
etmektedir. Histerisi etkisi işsizlik serisinin birim kök içermesiyle
belirlenirken, doğal oran hipotezinin ise serinin durağan olması ile
açıklanmaktadır. Çalışmanın analizinde kullanılan yöntem, Breuer vd. (2002)
tarafından kullanılan SURADF panel birim kök testi; Pesaran (2007) tarafından
geliştirilen CADF panel birim kök testi ve son olarak yapısal kırılmalara izin
veren Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2005) tarafından geliştirilen panel KPSS
(PANKPSS) testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgular, işsizlik
serilerinin SURADF, CADF ve PANKPSS test sonuçlarına göre incelenen tüm
ülkelerde durağan olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, Balkan ülkelerinde
geçici şokların işsizlik oranları üzerinde kalıcı etkilere yol açmadığını ve
doğal oran hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

İşsizlik Histerisi, Balkan Ülkeleri, Panel Birim Kök Analizi.İşsizlik Histerisi

References

• Apergis, N. (2005). An Estimation of the Natural Rate of Unemployment in Greece, Journal of Policy Modeling, 27(1), 91-99.
• Arestis, P., & Mariscal, I.B-F. (1999). Unit Roots and Structural Breaks in OECD Unemployment, Economics Letters, 65(2), 149-156.
• Arestis, P., & Mariscal, I.B-F. (2000). OECD Unemployment: Structural Breaks and Stationary, Applied Economics, 32(4), 399-403.
• Arı, A., Zeren, F., & Özcan, B. (2013). Doğu Asya ve Pasifik Ülkelerinde İşsizlik Histerisi: Panel Veri Yaklaşımı, Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B. Dergisi, 35(2), 105-122.
• Baltagi, B.H. (2008). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (Fourth Edition). West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
• Blanchard, O.J., & Summers, L.H. (1986). Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem, NBER Working Paper Series, Macroeconomics Annual, 1-78.
• Blanchard, O.J., & Summers, L.H. (1987). Hysteresis and Unemployment, European Economic Review, 31(1-2), 288-295.
• Bolat, S., Tiwari, A.K., & Erdayı, A.U. (2014). Unemployment Hysteresis in the Eurozone Area: Evidences from Nonlinear Heterogeneous Panel Unit Root Test, Applied Economics Letters, 21(8), 536-540.
• Breuer, B., Mcnown, R., & Wallace, M. (2002). Seriesspecific Unit Root Test with Panel Data, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 64(5), 527-546.
• Brunello, G. (1990). Hysteresis and the Japanese Experience: A Preliminary Investigation, Oxford Economic Papers, 42(3), 483-500.
• Camarero, M., & Tamarıt, C. (2004). Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of Unemployment: New Evidence for OECD Countries, Economics Letters, 84(3), 413-417.
• Camarero, M., Carrıon-i Silvestre, J.L., & Tamarit, C. (2008). Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence Using Stationarity Panel Tests with Breaks, Review of Development Economics, 12(3), 620-635.
• Carrion-i Silvestre, J.L., Barrio-Castro, T.D., & Lopez-Bazo, E. (2005). Breaking the Panels: An Application to the GDP Per Capita, Econometrics Journal, 8(2), 159-175.
• Chang, T., Lee, K-C., Nieh, C-C. & Wei, C-C. (2005). An Empirical Note on Testing Hysteresis in Unemployment for Ten European Countries: Panel SURADF Approach, Applied Economics Letters, 12(14), 881-886.
• Chang, T., & Lee, C-H. (2011). Hysteresis in Unemployment for G-7 Countries: Threshold Unit Root Test, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 14(4), 5-14.
• Chang, M-J., & Su, C-Y. (2014). Hysteresis versus Natural Rate in Taiwan’s Unemployment: Evidence from the Educational Attainment Categories, Economic Modelling, 43(C), 293-304.
• Cheng, K.M., Durmaz, N, Kim, H., & Stern, M.L. (2012). Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate of US Unemployment, Economic Modelling, 29(2), 428-434.
• Cheng S-C., Wu, T-P., Lee, K-C., & Chang, T. (2014). Flexible Fourier Unit Root Test of Unemployment for PIIGS Countries, Economic Modelling, 36(C), 142-148.
• Chou, H-C., & Zhang, Y-C. (2012). Unemployment Hysteresis in G20 Countries: Evidence from Non-linear Panel Unit-Root Tests, African Journal of Business Management, 6(49), 11887-11890.
• Christopoulos, D.K., & Leon-Ledesma, M.A. (2007). Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries: What do we Really Know about it?, Journal of Economic Studies, 34(2), 80-89.
• Cuestas, J.C., Gil-Alana, L.A., & Staehr, K. (2011). A Further Investigation of Unemployment Persistence in European Transition Economies, Journal of Comparative Economics, 39(4), 514-532.
• Çevik, E. I., & Dibooglu, S. (2013). Persistence and Non-Linearity in US Unemployment: A Regime-Switching Approach, Economic Systems, 37(1), 61-68.
• Friedman, M. (1968). The Role of Monetary Policy, American Economic Review, 58(1), 1-17.
• Furuoka, F. (2015). Unemployment Hysteresis in the "Nordic Kitten": Evidence from Five Estonian Regions, Panoeconomicus, 62(5), 631-642.
• Garcia-Cintado, A., Romero-Avila, D., & Usabiaga, C., (2015). Can the Hysteresis Hypothesis in Spanish Regional Unemployment be Beaten? New Evidence from Unit Root Tests with Breaks, Economic Modelling, 47(C), 244-252.
• Gomes, F., & Silva, C.G. (2008). Histeresis vs. Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil and Chile, Applied Economics Letters, 15(1), 53-56.
• Gözgör, G. (2012). Hysteresis in Regional Unemployment Rates in Turkey, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(9), 175-181.
• Gustavsson, M., & Osterholm, P. (2006). Hysteresis and Non-linearities in Unemployment Rates, Applied Economics Letters, 13(9), 545-548.
• Güloglu, B., & İvrendi, M. (2010). Output Fluctuations: Transitory or Permanent? The Case of Latin America, Applied Economics Letters, 17(4), 381-386.
• Güloğlu, B., & İspir, M.S. (2011). Doğal İşsizlik Oranı mı? İşsizlik Histerisi mi? Türkiye İçin Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi, Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2), 205-215.
• Güris, B., Tiftikçigil, B.Y. & Tiraşoğlu, M. (2017). Testing for Unemployment Hysteresis in Turkey: Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests, Quality & Quantity, 51(1), 35-46.
• Holmes, M.J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidisc, T. (2013). Modelling the Behaviour of Unemployment Rates in the US over Time and Across Space, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 392(22), 5711-5722.
• Hoyos, R.E.D., & Sarafidis, V. (2006). Testing for Cross-Sectional Dependence in Panel-data Models, The Stata Journal, 6(4), 482–496.
• Jiang, Y., & Chang, T. (2016). Bring Quantile Unit Root Test Back in Testing Hysteresis in Unemployment For The United States, Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 19(1), 5-13.
• Khraief, N., Shahbaz, M., Heshmati A., & Azam, M.  (2015). Are  Unemployment  Rates  in  OECD  Countries  Stationary?  Evidence  from  Univariate  and  Panel  Unit  Root Tests,  IZA  Discussion  Paper ,  No. 9571.
• Klinger, S., & Weber, E. (2016). Detecting Unemployment Hysteresis: A Simultaneous Unobserved Components Model with Markov Switching, Economics Letters, 144(C), 115-118.
• Lee, C.C., & Chang, C.P., (2008). Unemployment Hysteresis in OECD Countries: Centurial Time Series Evidence with Structural Breaks, Economic Modelling, 25(2), 312-325.
• Lee, H.Y., Wu, J.L., & Lin, C.H. (2010). Hysteresis in East Asian Unemployment, Applied Economics, 42(7), 887-898.
• Liew, V.K.S., Chia, R.C.J., & Puah, C.H. (2012). Does Hysteresis in Unemployment Occur in OECD Countries? Evidence from Parametric and Non-Parametric Panel Unit Roots Tests, International Journal of Economics and Management, 6(2), 446-458.
• Lin, C.H., Kuo, N.F., & Yuan, C.D. (2008). Nonlinear vs. Nonstationary of Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from OECD Economies, Applied Economics Letters, 15(6), 483-487.
• Marjanovic, G., Maksimovic, L, & Stanisic, N. (2015). Hysteresis and the NAIRU: The Case of Countries in Transition, Prague Economic Papers, 5(15), 503-515.
• Mitchell, W.F. (1993). Testing for Unit Roots and Persistence in OECD Unemployment Rates, Applied Econometrics, 25(12), 1489-1501.
• Munir, Q., & Ching, K.S. (2015). Revisiting the Hysteresis Hypothesis in Unemployment in Selected Emerging Economies, International Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(3), 22-32.
• Neudorfer, P., Pichelmann, K., & Wagner, M. (1990). Hysteresis, NAIRU and Long Term Unemployment in Austria, Empirical Economics, 15(2), 217-229.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels, University of Cambridge Working Paper, No. 0435.
• Pesaran, M.H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross Section Dependence, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
• Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross Section Independence, The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
• Phelps, E.S. (1967). Phillips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time, Economica, New Series, 34(135), 254–281.
• Røed, K. (1996). Unemployment Hysteresis-Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries, Empirical Economics, 21(4), 589-600.
• Song, F.M., & Wu, Y. (1998). Hysteresis in Unemployment: Evidence from OECD Countries, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 38(2), 181-192