THE EFFECT OF THE OIL PRICES VOLATILITY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH AND INFLATION: THE CASE OF GCC COUNTRIES

Year 2020, Volume: 11 Issue: 21, 306 - 330, 30.06.2020

Seyfettin Erdoğan , Emrah Çevik , Ayfer Gedikli

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2020.015

Cited By: 2

Abstract

The
empirical investigation of the impact of oil price volatility on macroeconomic
variables in oil-dependent countries can be used as a data source for
determining production structure and sectoral transformation policies in these
countries. The aim of this study is to investigate the effects of volatility in
oil prices in GCC countries (Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, Saudi Arabia and
United Arab Emirates) on economic growth and inflation by using monthly data
for 2007-2018 period. Real industrial production index was used to represent
economic growth, and inflation rates were calculated by taking into account the
monthly change in the Consumer Price Index. SVAR model was preferred for
analysis. Based on our test results, it was found that volatility in oil prices
affects economic growth negatively and inflation rate positively in most GCC
countries. As a policy implication, it can be suggested that in order to reduce
the negative impact of volatility in oil prices on macroeconomic indicators,
sectors other than oil should be supported.

Keywords

GCC Countries, Oil Price Volatility, Economic Growth, Inflation, SVAR Model

PETROL FİYATLARINDAKİ OYNAKLIĞIN İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME VE ENFLASYON ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: GCC ÜLKELERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Petrole
bağımlı ülkelerde petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklığın makro ekonomik değişkenler
üzerindeki etkisinin ampirik olarak araştırılmasından elde edilecek bulgular,
bu ülkelerde üretim yapısı ve sektörel dönüşüm politikalarının belirlenmesinde
veri kaynağı olarak kullanılabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, GCC ülkeleri (Bahreyn,
Katar, Kuveyt, Umman, Suudi Arabistan ve Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri)’nde petrol
fiyatlarındaki oynaklığın iktisadi büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini 2007-2018
dönemine ilişkin aylık veriler kullanarak araştırmaktır. Ekonomik
büyümeyi temsilen reel sanayi üretim endeksi kullanılmış, enflasyon oranları
ise Tüketici Fiyat Endeksindeki aylık değişim dikkate alınarak hesaplanmıştır. Analiz için SVAR modeli tercih edilmiştir. Elde edilen
bulgulara göre, petrol fiyatlarındaki oynaklık GCC ülkelerinin çoğunda iktisadi
büyümeyi negatif, enflasyon oranını ise pozitif yönde etkilemektedir. Petrol
fiyatlarındaki oynaklığın makro ekonomik göstergeler üzerindeki olumsuz
etkisinin azaltılması için petrol dışındaki sektörlerin desteklenmesi
gerekmektedir. 

Keywords

GCC Ülkeleri, Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Oynaklık, İktisadi Büyüme, Enflasyon, SVAR Modeli

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