DETERMINANTS OF THE SURGES IN CAPITAL INFLOWS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2020, Volume: 11 Issue: 22, 1048 - 1074, 29.12.2020

Cemil Varlık

https://doi.org/10.36543/kauiibfd.2020.045

Abstract

SERMAYE GİRİŞLERİNDEKİ AŞIRI ARTIŞLARIN BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

ÖZ
Bu makalede Türkiye ekonomisinin 1997:12-2019:12 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanılarak, brüt ve net toplam sermaye girişleri ile bunların bileşenlerindeki aşırı artışların belirleyicileri araştırılmaktadır. Probit model tahminleri, portföy ve diğer yatırım girişlerindeki aşırı artışlar için hem yurtiçi hem de küresel faktörlerin önemli olduğunu; toplam sermaye girişleri ile doğrudan yabancı yatırım girişlerindeki aşırı artışlar için ise yurtiçi değişkenlerin açıklama gücünün daha yüksek olduğunu göstermektedir. Ulaşılan bulgulara göre; brüt sermaye girişlerine dair veriler, net girişlere ait verilerden daha anlamlı sonuçlar vermektedir. Ayrıca yurtiçi sanayi üretimindeki, reel döviz kurundaki, küresel büyümedeki ve küresel likiditedeki artışlar, sermaye girişlerinin doğrudan yabancı yatırım dışında kalan bileşenlerinde aşırı artış olasılığını yükseltmektedir. Doğrudan yatırım girişlerindeki aşırı artışların belirli yurtiçi ve küresel değişkenlere tepkisi, diğer bileşenlerinkinden oldukça farklıdır. İlave olarak, brüt portföy girişlerindeki aşırı artışlar finansal kırılganlığa; brüt doğrudan yatırım ve brüt diğer yatırım girişlerindeki aşırı artışlar ise makroekonomik istikrarsızlığa daha duyarlıdır.

Keywords

Brüt sermaye girişleri, Aşırı sermaye girişleri, Çeken ve iten faktörler

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