Weapon Selection with Fuzzy AHP-TOPSIS for Capability-Based Risk-Based Defense Planning

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 20 Sayı: 2, 363 - 387, 01.11.2024

Serkan Aksoy , Memduh Begenirbaş , Kemal Gürol Kurtay

https://doi.org/10.17134/khosbd.1494965

Öz

Capability-based planning (CAP) is a new paradigm that uses the concept of capability to provide an analytical framework for strategic or long-term planning. In this study, 6 different scenarios were created for the capabilities that can meet military objectives, and accordingly, the risk of occurrence for each scenario was calculated within the YTP. The sub-skills necessary for the success of the determined goals have been defined. For the weapon selection problem to meet military objectives, criterion weights were calculated with Fuzzy AHP, one of the Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods, and prioritized with the TOPSIS method. The main motivation of this study is to fill the gap in the literature regarding analytical evaluation of decision processes for identifying and evaluating scenario-based capabilities.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Defense planning, Capability-based planning, TOPSIS, Fuzzy AHP, Weapon Selection

Yetenek Temelli Risk Tabanlı Savunma Planlaması için Bulanık AHP-TOPSIS ile Silah Seçimi

Öz

Yetenek temelli planlama (YTP), yeni bir paradigma olup stratejik veya uzun vadeli planlama için analitik bir çerçeve sunarak yetenek kavramını kullanmaktadır. Bu çalışmada askeri hedefleri sağlayabilecek yetenekler için 6 farklı senaryo oluşturulmuş ve buna göre YTP içerisinde her bir senaryo için meydana gelme riski hesabı yapılmıştır. Belirlenen hedeflerin başarılı olması için gerekli olan alt yetenekler tanımlanmıştır. Askeri hedeflerin karşılanmasına yönelik silah seçim problemi için Çok Kriterli Karar Verme (ÇKKV) yöntemlerinden Bulanık AHP ile kriter ağırlıkları hesaplanmış ve TOPSIS metodu ile önceliklendirilmesi yapılmıştır. Bu çalışmanın ana motivasyonu literatürdeki senaryo tabanlı yeteneklerin belirlenmesi ve değerlendirilmesi için karar süreçlerine ait analitik değerlendirmeye yönelik boşluğu doldurmaktır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Savunma planlaması, Yetenek temelli planlama, TOPSIS, Bulanık AHP, Silah Seçimi

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