Evaluating the Relationship between Banking Sector, Industrial Development and Economic Growth in Turkey with VAR Analysis

Year 2020, Volume: 12 Issue: 22, 56 - 74, 29.05.2020

Hakan Kalkavan , Serkan Eti , Serhat Yüksel

https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.603234

Cited By: 6

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine the
relationship between the banking sector, economic growth and industrial
production in Turkey. Within this framework, annual data for the period
1980-2018 were evaluated with the VAR model. The findings show that there is a
mutual relationship between economic growth and bank loans. It is determined
that the decrease in economic growth will have an increasing effect on bank
loans in the following period. In parallel, bank loans also positively affect
the economic growth in the next period. When these findings are taken into
consideration, it is very important for the banking sector to operate
effectively for a long-term and sustainable economic development. On the other
hand, banks should be able to determine their customers' risk profiles by
performing the credibility analysis of their customers correctly. In this
context, legal regulations for the banking sector play an important role. With
the help of these regulations, both the efficiency of the banking sector should
be increased and the banks' risk taking will be prevented.

Keywords

Banking Sector, Industrial Development, Economic Growth, VAR Analysis

TÜRKİYE’DEKİ BANKACILIK SEKTÖRÜ, SANAYİ GELİŞİMİ VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİNİN VAR ANALİZİ İLE İNCELENMESİ

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’deki ekonomik
büyüme, bankacılık sektörü ve sanayi üretimi arasındaki karşılıklı ilişkinin
belirlenmesidir. Bu çerçevede, 1980-2018 dönem aralığındaki yıllık veriler
Vektör Otoregresyon (VAR) modeliyle test edilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlara
göre, ekonomik büyüme ve banka kredileri arasında karşılıklı bir ilişki olduğu
tespit edilmiştir. Ekonomik büyümenin azalmasının bir sonraki dönemde banka
kredileri üzerinde artırıcı bir etki yaratacağı belirlenmiştir. Buna paralel
olarak, banka kredilerinin de bir dönem sonraki ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde
etkilediği görülmektedir. Söz konusu bulgular dikkate alındığında, uzun vadeli
ve sürdürülebilir ekonomi için bankacılık sektörünün etkin bir şekilde
faaliyetini sürdürebilmesi oldukça önemlidir. Diğer taraftan, bankaların kredi
verirken müşterilerinin kredibilite analizini doğru bir şekilde yaparak
müşterilerin risk profillerini belirleyebilmesi gerekmektedir. Bu bağlamda,
bankacılık sektörüne yönelik yapılacak yasal düzenlemeler önemli rol
oynamaktadır. Söz konusu düzenlemeler ile hem bankacılık sektörünün
etkinliğinin artırılması hem de bankaların arışı risk almasını önüne geçilmesi
gerekmektedir.    

Keywords

Bankacılık Sektörü, Sanayi Gelişimi, ekonomik büyüme, var analizi

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