Sustainability Of Current Deficits: A Literature Rewiev
Year 2018,
Volume: 10 Issue: 18, 55 - 80, 04.06.2018
Dilara Ayla
,
Yakup Küçükkale
Abstract
It is also very important issue whether the current account
deficit is sustainable as much as how much it is. Along with many approaches to
qualifications for a sustainable current account deficit, there are some
debates about the definition and character of sustainability in these
approaches. While these discussions lead to the development of quite different
methods for measuring the sustainability of the current account deficit, there
is no general definition of sustainability for the current account deficit.
However, some indicators may be used to measure sustainability although they
may vary in different circumstances. Although these indicators do not allow for
a clear interpretation, they have made it possible to make comprehensive
assessments. The main aim of this study is to scan and compile the related
literature.
References
- Adedeji, O. S. (2001). The Size and Sustainability of Nigerian Current Account Defıcit. IMF Working Paper, 1(87), 1-32.
- Akçay, C., ve Özler, Ş. (1998). Current Account Position of The Turkish Economy: Is There Any Cause for Concern?. Boğaziçi Journal Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12(1), 39-53.
- Altunöz U. (2014). Cari Açık Sorunun Temel Nedenleri ve Sürdürülebilirliği: Türkiye Örneği. İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1 (2), 115-132.
- Apergis, N., Katrakilidis, K. P., ve Tabakis, N. M. (2000). Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Greece. Applied Economics Letters, 7, 599-603.
- Ağaslan, E., ve Akçoraoğlu, A. (2007). Türkiye’de Cari İşlem Hesabının Boyutu ve Sürdürülebilirliği. 08/12/2015 tarihinde http://eisemp8.inonu.edu.tr/bildiri-pdf/agaslan-akcoraoglu.pdf adresinden alındı.
- Aristovnik, A. (2006). Current Account Sustainability in Selected Transition Countries. (U.O. Michigan, Dü.) William Davidson Institute, Working Paper (844), 1-21.
- Arize, A. C. (2002). Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Tests of Cointegration and Structural Breaks. International Rewiew of Economics and Finance, 11, 101-115.
- Babaoğlu, B. (2005). Türkiye'de Cari İşlemler Dengesi Sürdürülebilirliği. Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, T.C. Merkez Bankası, Ankara.
- Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., ve Fountas, S. (2003). On The Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence From Four ASEAN Countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 14(3), 465-487.
- Bajo-Rubio, O. (2012). The Balance-Of-Payments Constraint on Economic Growth in a Long-Term Perspective: Spain, 1850-2000. Explorations in Economic History, 49(1), 105-117.
- Barışık, S., ve Çetintaş, H. (2006). Türkiye’de Cari Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği: 1987-2003 Yapısal Kırılma Modeli. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 11(1), 1-16.
- Bergsten, C. F. (05.01.2008). The Dolar And The US Economy. 10/02/2015 tarihinde Peterson Institute For International Economics:
http://www.piie.com/publications/testimony/print.cfm?ResearchId=464&doc=pub. adresinden alındı.
- Berke, B. (2009). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Parçalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Akdeniz Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 9(18), 117-145.
- Brissimis, S. N., Hondroyiannis, G., Papazoglou, C., Tsaveas, N. T., ve Vasardani, M. A. (2010). Current Account Determinants and External Sustainability in Periods of Structural Change. Bank of Greece Working Paper (117), 1-38.
- Calderon, C., Chong, A., ve Zanforlin, L. (2001). Are African Current Account Deficits Different? Stylized Facts, Transitory Shocks and Decomposition Analysis. IMF Working Paper, 1(4), 1-39.
- Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., ve Tamarit, C. (2009). An Assessment of The Sustainability of Current Account Imbalances in OECD Countries. Papeles De Trabajo Del Instituto De Estudios Fiscales-Serie Econom^a (16), 3-74.
- Campa, J. M. ve Gavilan, A. (2011). Current Accounts in The Euro Area: An İntertemporal Approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 205-228.
- Ceylan, R., ve Çeviş, İ. (2012). Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejimi Öncesi ve Sonrasında Türkiye’de Cari Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği. E-Journal of New World Sciences Academy, 7(4), 259-276.
- Chang, C.-K., ve Chang, T. (2012). Revisiting The Sustainability of Current Account Defıcit: Spsm Using The Panel KSS Test With A Fourier Function. Economics Bulletin, 32(1), 538-550.
- Chen, S.-W. (2010). Testing For The Sustainability of The Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation. Economics Bulletin, 30(2), 1-21.
- Chen, S.-W. (2011a). Current Account Deficits and Sustainability: Evidence From The OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 28, 1455-1464.
- Chen, S.-W. (2011b). Are Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable in The G-7 Countries?. Japan and The World Economy, 23, 190-201.
- Chortareas, G. E., Kapetanios, G., ve Uçtum, M. (2004). An İnvestigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non-Linear Nonstationary Tests. Studies Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 8(1), 1-19.
- Christopoulos, D., ve Leon-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Current Account Sustainability in The US: What Did We Really Know About İt?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 442- 459.
- Chu, H.-P., Chang, T., Chang, H.-L., Su, C.-W., ve Yuan, Y. (2007). Mean Reversion in The Current Account of Forty-Eight African Countries: Evidence From The Panel Suradf Test. Physica A(384), 485-492.
- Clarida, R. H., Goretti, M., ve Taylor, M. P. (2006). Are There Threshold of Current Account Adjustment in The G7?. NBER Working Paper (12193), 1-59.
- Doğan E. ve Bayraç H. N. (2014). Türkiye’de Cari Açık Sorunu Üzerine Mikro Temelli Bir Çalışma. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15 (2), 97-124.
- Dooley, M. P., Landau, D. F., ve Garber, P. M. (2004). The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral For A Total Return Swap. NBER Working Paper Series (10727), 1-11.
- Dülger, F., ve Özdemir, Z. A. (2005). Current Account Sustainability in Seven Developed Countries. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 7(2), 47-80.
- Edwards, S. (2001). Does The Current Account Matter?. NBER Working Paper (8275), 1-69.
- Ekinci, R. ve Kahyaoğlu, H. (2015). The Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: A Non-Linear Time Series Approach. Izmir Review of Social Sciences Vol:2 No:2, 27-40.
- Fountas, S., ve Wu, J.-l. (1999). Are the U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?. International Economic Journal, 13(3), 51-58.
- Freund, C. (2005). Current Account Adjustments in İndustrialized Countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(8), 1278-1298.
- Göçer, İ., ve Mercan, M. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 48(562), 33-52.
- Greenidge, K., Holder, C., ve Moore, A. (2011). Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Barbados. Applied Economics, 43, 973-984.
- Gülcan, Y., ve Önel, G. (09.01.2008). The Sustainability of Turkish Currenct Account Deficits with Structural Breaks. 08/12/2015 tarihinde http://fbe.emu.edu.tr/journal/doc/11-12/09.pdf adresinden alındı.
- Hakkio, C. S. ve Rush, M. (1991). Is The Budget Defıcıt Too Large?. Economic Inquiry, 29, 3, 429-445.
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- Holmes, M. J. (2006b). Do Latin American Countries Have an Incentive to Default on Their External Debts?. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 42(1), 33-49.
- Holmes, M. J., Panagiotidis, T., ve Sharma, A. (2011). The Sustainability of India’s Current Account. Applied Economics, 43, 219-229.
- Hudson, S., ve Stennett, R. (2003). Current Account Sustainability in Jamaica. Bank of Jamaica, Working Paper, 2(11), 1-43.
- Husted, S. (1992). The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in The 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis. The Review of Economics ve Statics, 74(1), 159-166.
- IMF (2002). Slovak Republic: Selected Issues and Statistic Appendix. Country Report, Washington DC, 2, 210.
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- İsmail, H. B., ve Baharumshah, A. Z. (2008). Malaysia’s Current Account Deficits: An İntertemporal Optimization Perspective. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 569-590.
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Cari Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği: Literatür Taraması
Year 2018,
Volume: 10 Issue: 18, 55 - 80, 04.06.2018
Dilara Ayla
,
Yakup Küçükkale
Abstract
Cari
işlemler hesabında oluşan açıkların boyutu kadar nitelik itibariyle
sürdürülebilir olup olmadığı da oldukça önemli bir konudur. Sürdürülebilir bir
cari açığın nitelikleri hakkında pek çok yaklaşım olmakla birlikte, bu
yaklaşımlarda sürdürülebilirliğin tanımı ve niteliği hakkında bazı tartışmalara
rastlanmaktadır. Bu tartışmalar, cari açığın sürdürülebilirliğini ölçmeye
yönelik oldukça farklı yöntemlerin geliştirilmesine yol açsa da cari açık için
genel-geçer bir sürdürülebilirlik tanımlaması yapılamamıştır. Buna rağmen,
farklı koşullarda farklılık gösterebilse de bazı göstergelerin
sürdürülebilirlik ölçümünde kullanıldığı görülmektedir. Söz konusu göstergeler
net bir yorum yapılmasına müsaade etmese de genel kapsamlı değerlendirmelere
imkân sağlamıştır. Bu çalışmada, cari açıkların sürdürülebilirliği ile ilgili
literatürün taranıp derlenmesi amaçlanmıştır.
References
- Adedeji, O. S. (2001). The Size and Sustainability of Nigerian Current Account Defıcit. IMF Working Paper, 1(87), 1-32.
- Akçay, C., ve Özler, Ş. (1998). Current Account Position of The Turkish Economy: Is There Any Cause for Concern?. Boğaziçi Journal Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, 12(1), 39-53.
- Altunöz U. (2014). Cari Açık Sorunun Temel Nedenleri ve Sürdürülebilirliği: Türkiye Örneği. İstanbul Gelişim Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 1 (2), 115-132.
- Apergis, N., Katrakilidis, K. P., ve Tabakis, N. M. (2000). Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Greece. Applied Economics Letters, 7, 599-603.
- Ağaslan, E., ve Akçoraoğlu, A. (2007). Türkiye’de Cari İşlem Hesabının Boyutu ve Sürdürülebilirliği. 08/12/2015 tarihinde http://eisemp8.inonu.edu.tr/bildiri-pdf/agaslan-akcoraoglu.pdf adresinden alındı.
- Aristovnik, A. (2006). Current Account Sustainability in Selected Transition Countries. (U.O. Michigan, Dü.) William Davidson Institute, Working Paper (844), 1-21.
- Arize, A. C. (2002). Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Tests of Cointegration and Structural Breaks. International Rewiew of Economics and Finance, 11, 101-115.
- Babaoğlu, B. (2005). Türkiye'de Cari İşlemler Dengesi Sürdürülebilirliği. Uzmanlık Yeterlilik Tezi, T.C. Merkez Bankası, Ankara.
- Baharumshah, A. Z., Lau, E., ve Fountas, S. (2003). On The Sustainability of Current Account Deficits: Evidence From Four ASEAN Countries. Journal of Asian Economics, 14(3), 465-487.
- Bajo-Rubio, O. (2012). The Balance-Of-Payments Constraint on Economic Growth in a Long-Term Perspective: Spain, 1850-2000. Explorations in Economic History, 49(1), 105-117.
- Barışık, S., ve Çetintaş, H. (2006). Türkiye’de Cari Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği: 1987-2003 Yapısal Kırılma Modeli. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 11(1), 1-16.
- Bergsten, C. F. (05.01.2008). The Dolar And The US Economy. 10/02/2015 tarihinde Peterson Institute For International Economics:
http://www.piie.com/publications/testimony/print.cfm?ResearchId=464&doc=pub. adresinden alındı.
- Berke, B. (2009). Türkiye’de Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Parçalı Eşbütünleşme Analizi. Akdeniz Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 9(18), 117-145.
- Brissimis, S. N., Hondroyiannis, G., Papazoglou, C., Tsaveas, N. T., ve Vasardani, M. A. (2010). Current Account Determinants and External Sustainability in Periods of Structural Change. Bank of Greece Working Paper (117), 1-38.
- Calderon, C., Chong, A., ve Zanforlin, L. (2001). Are African Current Account Deficits Different? Stylized Facts, Transitory Shocks and Decomposition Analysis. IMF Working Paper, 1(4), 1-39.
- Camarero, M., Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L., ve Tamarit, C. (2009). An Assessment of The Sustainability of Current Account Imbalances in OECD Countries. Papeles De Trabajo Del Instituto De Estudios Fiscales-Serie Econom^a (16), 3-74.
- Campa, J. M. ve Gavilan, A. (2011). Current Accounts in The Euro Area: An İntertemporal Approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 30, 205-228.
- Ceylan, R., ve Çeviş, İ. (2012). Enflasyon Hedeflemesi Rejimi Öncesi ve Sonrasında Türkiye’de Cari Açıkların Sürdürülebilirliği. E-Journal of New World Sciences Academy, 7(4), 259-276.
- Chang, C.-K., ve Chang, T. (2012). Revisiting The Sustainability of Current Account Defıcit: Spsm Using The Panel KSS Test With A Fourier Function. Economics Bulletin, 32(1), 538-550.
- Chen, S.-W. (2010). Testing For The Sustainability of The Current Account Deficit in Four Industrial Countries: A Revisitation. Economics Bulletin, 30(2), 1-21.
- Chen, S.-W. (2011a). Current Account Deficits and Sustainability: Evidence From The OECD Countries. Economic Modelling, 28, 1455-1464.
- Chen, S.-W. (2011b). Are Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable in The G-7 Countries?. Japan and The World Economy, 23, 190-201.
- Chortareas, G. E., Kapetanios, G., ve Uçtum, M. (2004). An İnvestigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non-Linear Nonstationary Tests. Studies Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 8(1), 1-19.
- Christopoulos, D., ve Leon-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Current Account Sustainability in The US: What Did We Really Know About İt?. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29, 442- 459.
- Chu, H.-P., Chang, T., Chang, H.-L., Su, C.-W., ve Yuan, Y. (2007). Mean Reversion in The Current Account of Forty-Eight African Countries: Evidence From The Panel Suradf Test. Physica A(384), 485-492.
- Clarida, R. H., Goretti, M., ve Taylor, M. P. (2006). Are There Threshold of Current Account Adjustment in The G7?. NBER Working Paper (12193), 1-59.
- Doğan E. ve Bayraç H. N. (2014). Türkiye’de Cari Açık Sorunu Üzerine Mikro Temelli Bir Çalışma. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 15 (2), 97-124.
- Dooley, M. P., Landau, D. F., ve Garber, P. M. (2004). The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral For A Total Return Swap. NBER Working Paper Series (10727), 1-11.
- Dülger, F., ve Özdemir, Z. A. (2005). Current Account Sustainability in Seven Developed Countries. Journal of Economic and Social Research, 7(2), 47-80.
- Edwards, S. (2001). Does The Current Account Matter?. NBER Working Paper (8275), 1-69.
- Ekinci, R. ve Kahyaoğlu, H. (2015). The Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Turkey: A Non-Linear Time Series Approach. Izmir Review of Social Sciences Vol:2 No:2, 27-40.
- Fountas, S., ve Wu, J.-l. (1999). Are the U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable?. International Economic Journal, 13(3), 51-58.
- Freund, C. (2005). Current Account Adjustments in İndustrialized Countries. Journal of International Money and Finance, 24(8), 1278-1298.
- Göçer, İ., ve Mercan, M. (2011). Türkiye Ekonomisinde Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, 48(562), 33-52.
- Greenidge, K., Holder, C., ve Moore, A. (2011). Current Account Deficit Sustainability: The Case of Barbados. Applied Economics, 43, 973-984.
- Gülcan, Y., ve Önel, G. (09.01.2008). The Sustainability of Turkish Currenct Account Deficits with Structural Breaks. 08/12/2015 tarihinde http://fbe.emu.edu.tr/journal/doc/11-12/09.pdf adresinden alındı.
- Hakkio, C. S. ve Rush, M. (1991). Is The Budget Defıcıt Too Large?. Economic Inquiry, 29, 3, 429-445.
- Holmes, M. J. (2006a). How Sustainable Are OECD Current Account Balances in The Long Run?. Manchester School, 74(5), 626-643.
- Holmes, M. J. (2006b). Do Latin American Countries Have an Incentive to Default on Their External Debts?. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 42(1), 33-49.
- Holmes, M. J., Panagiotidis, T., ve Sharma, A. (2011). The Sustainability of India’s Current Account. Applied Economics, 43, 219-229.
- Hudson, S., ve Stennett, R. (2003). Current Account Sustainability in Jamaica. Bank of Jamaica, Working Paper, 2(11), 1-43.
- Husted, S. (1992). The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in The 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis. The Review of Economics ve Statics, 74(1), 159-166.
- IMF (2002). Slovak Republic: Selected Issues and Statistic Appendix. Country Report, Washington DC, 2, 210.
- İnsel, A., ve Kayıkçı, F. (2012). Evaluation of Sustainability of Current Account Deficits in Turkey. Modern Economy, 3, 43-50.
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