Democratic Rollback in West Africa: Coup Contagion, Sit-tight Tyrants and Best Options for Regional Organisations

Year 2024, Volume: 8 Issue: 2, 135 - 156, 31.07.2024

Mike Omilusi

https://doi.org/10.47478/lectio.1461009

Abstract

Unconstitutional changes of government (UCG) have resurfaced in West Africa, undermining decades of democratic progress. This article examines the effectiveness of intervention strategies by regional organizations, specifically the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), in preventing democratic backsliding and mitigating military coups. Despite these organizations’ efforts, their strategies, including diplomatic pressure, economic sanctions, and military threats, have often yielded limited success. The study investigates the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches, highlighting the inconsistency in sanctions application and the internal divisions within ECOWAS that hamper effective intervention. Through a comprehensive review of recent coups in Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Gabon, the study explores the broader political and economic factors contributing to instability, such as corruption, weak institutions, and socioeconomic challenges exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The findings suggest that enhancing democratic institutions, promoting good governance, and enforcing strict term limits are crucial for long-term stability. This study aims to contribute to the development of more robust frameworks for safeguarding democracy in West Africa, offering recommendations for regional organizations, national governments, and international actors to address the challenges of democratic backsliding and coup contagion.

Keywords

Democratic Backsliding, Coups d’état, Regional Organisations, Social Discontentment, Africa

References

• Abebe, A. K. (2022, February 16). Africa is beset with coups and conflicts: how the trend can be reversed. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/africa-is-beset-with-coups-and-conflicts-how-the-trend-can-be-reversed-177252
• Adeoye, A. (2023, August 2). West African leaders get tough on Niger with threat of military action. The Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/24f50cd6-6b78-477d-a7a7-68bb1ec1d972
• Africa Center for Strategic Studies (2023, July 10). Mali catastrophe accelerating under junta rule. Infographic. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/mali-catastrophe-accelerating-under-junta-rule/
• Africa Center for Strategic Studies (2023, July 27). Attempted coup in Niger: Backgrounder. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/attempted-coup-in-niger-an-explainer/
• Africa Defense Forum (2023). Why are military coups returning to Africa? https://adf-magazine.com/2023/05/why-are-military-coups-returning-to-africa/
• Aina, F. & Nyei, Ibrahim, A. (2022, February 11). Why have civilians welcomed the recent coups in West Africa? Aljazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/11/why-have-civilians-welcomed-the-recent-coups-in-west-africa
• Akinpelu, Y. (2023, August 4). Niger coup: Three scenarios for what next. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-66405253
• Akinyetun, T. S. (2022). Democratic backsliding in Africa: Understanding the current challenges. https://kujenga-amani.ssrc.org/2022/09/20/democratic-backsliding-in-africa-understanding-the-current-challenges/
• Al Jazeera. (2023, July 26) Over 1,800 ‘terrorist attacks’ in West Africa in 2023: ECOWAS. Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/7/26/over-1800-terrorist-attacks-in-west-africa-in-2023-ecowas
• Albrecht, H., Koehler, K. & Schutz, A. (2021). Coup agency and prospects for democracy. International Studies Quarterly. 65 (4), 1052–1063. https://doi.org/10.1093/isq/sqab079
• Amani Africa Media. (2022). Addressing the recent resurgence of unconstitutional changes of government: Policy recommendations for the AU extraordinary summit. Amani Africa Media. https://amaniafrica-et.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/05/Addressing-the-recent-resurgence-of-Unconstitutional-Changes-of-Government-Policy-Recommendations-for-the-AU-Extraordinary-Summit.pdf
• Ani, N. C. (2021, September 30). Coup resurgence in Africa: The pitfalls of a regional response. ACCORD. https://www.accord.org.za/analysis/coup-resurgence-in-africa-the-pitfalls-of-a-regional-response/
• APA News. (2023). Mali, Burkina issue war threat to ECOWAS over possible Niger invasion. APA News. https://apanews.net/2023/08/01/mali-burkina-issue-war-threat-to-ecowas-over-possible-niger-invasion/
• Archibald, S. H. & Murray, E. (2023). What to know about Gabon’s coup. USIP. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/08/what-know-about-gabons-coup
• Aslan, Ö. (2020). Domestic and international constituencies in military coups. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1931
• Bakare, A. (2021). Political reforms and implications for democracy and instability in West Africa: The way forward for ECOWAS and member states. Conflict Trends. 2021/4, https://www.accord.org.za/conflict-trends/political-reforms-and-implications-for-democracy-and-instability-in-west-africa-the-way-forward-for-ecowas-and-member-states/
• Baltoi, D. (2023). A deeper look into the West African coup wave. https://www.fpri.org/article/2023/01/a-deeper-look-into-the-west-african-coup-wave/
• Boukhars, A. (2013). The Mali conflict: avoiding past mistakes. Policy Brief No. 148. FRIDE.
• Brack, S. W. (2022). Beyond sanctions: How West Africa can recommit to democracy. ECFR. https://ecfr.eu/article/beyond-sanctions-how-west-africa-can-recommit-to-democracy/
• Brechenmacher, S. & Carothers, T. (2014). Closing space: Democracy and human rights support under fire. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
• Campbell, J. & Quinn, N. (2021, May 26). What’s happening to democracy in Africa? Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.cfr.org/article/whats-happening-democracy-africa
• Carson, J. (2023). West Africa’s leaders face the high stakes of Niger’s coup. United States Institute of Peace. https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/08/west-africas-leaders-face-high-stakes-nigers-coup
• Cheeseman, N. (2021). How does democracy in Africa look after 30 years? IDEES. https://revistaidees.cat/en/how-does-democracy-in-africa-look-after-30-years/
• Cheeseman, N. & Klaas, B. (2018). How to Rig an Election, United States of America. Yale University Press
• Chin, J. J. & Kirkpatrick, J. (2023). African coups in the COVID-19 era: A current history. Frontiers in Political Science, 5: 1077945. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fpos.2023.1077945
• Congressional Research Service (2023). Niger: In Focus. CRS Reports. https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12464
• Crocker, C. A. (2020). African governance: Challenges and their implications. International Journal of Comparative Studies in International Relations and Development, 6 (1) 45-56.
• Dersso, S. A. (2016). Unconstitutional changes of government and unconstitutional practices in Africa. In Jalloh C.C, Clarke K.M, Nmehielle VO (eds). The African Court of Justice and Human and Peoples’ Rights in Context: Development and Challenges (pp. 619-642). Cambridge University Press. https://sites.tufts.edu/wpf/files/2017/07/2.-UCG-Dersso-f.pdf
• Diamond, L. (2015). Facing up to the democratic recession. Journal of Democracy. 26(1): 141–155. Project MUSE. https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2015.0009.
• Doss, A. (2020). Safeguarding democracy in West Africa. African Center. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/safeguarding-democracy-in-west-africa/
• Duzor, M. & Williamson, B. (2022, February 2). Coups in Africa. VOA News. https://projects.voanews.com/african-coups/
• Eizenga, D. (2022, November 15). Transition’ orchestrated by Chad’s military goes awry. Spotlight. Africa Center for Strategic Studies. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/non-transition-chad-military-government/
• Ejibunu, H.T. (2014). Nigeria’s Niger Delta crisis: root causes of peacelessness. EPU Research Paper, 7(7), 6. http://epu.ac.at/fileadmin/downloads/research/rp_0707.pdf Elischer, S. & Lawrance, B. (2022). Reassessing Africa’s new post-coup landscape. African Studies Review. 65(1), 1-7. doi:10.1017/asr.2022.33
• Elischer, S. (2023, August 11). Military coups in Africa: here’s what determines a return to civilian rule. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/military-coups-in-africa-heres-what-determines-a-return-to-civilian-rule-211353
• Eziakonwa, A. (2023). “Foreword” in Soldiers and Citizens: Military coups and the need for democratic renewal in Africa. UNDP. https://www.undp.org/sites/g/files/zskgke326/files/2023-07/undp-africa-soldiers-citizens-2023-en.pdf
• Feaver, P. (1999). Civil-military relations. Annual Review of Political Science. 2(1), 211–241. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.polisci.2.1.211
• Fleck, A. (2023). A renewed wave of coups in Africa? Statista. https://www.statista.com/chart/30532/number-of-coups-per-year-in-africa/
• Ford, N. & Versi, A. (2022, April 27). What is behind the spate of coups in West Africa? New African Magazine. https://newafricanmagazine.com/28086/
• Freedom House. (2023). New Report: Freedom in Africa improved slightly in 2022 but challenges persist. Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/article/new-report-freedom-africa-improved-slightly-2022-challenges-persist
• Freedom House. (2019). Democracy in retreat. Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2019/democracy-retreat.
• Fund for Peace. (2021). Fragile States Index 2021. Fund for Peace. https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/fund.for.peace/viz/fsi-2021-rankings/DashboardRankings
• Geddes, B., Wright J. & Frantz, E. (2014). Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: A new data set. Perspectives on Politics. 12(2): 313–331. doi:10.1017/S1537592714000851
• Handy, P. Akum, F. & Djilo, F. (2020). Censuring coups isn’t enough – African and international actors should tackle the poor quality of democracy and governance. ISS. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/what-causes-africas-coups-that-is-the-question
• Harkness, K. A. (2022, February 9). Africa has had eight coup attempts in recent months. What’s behind the ‘coup epidemic’? Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/09/africa-has-had-8-coup-attempts-recent-months-whats-behind-coup-epidemic/
• Hengari, A. (2017). Democracy in Africa: Reversing backsliding after ten years of the African charter on democracy. IFRI: Institut Français des Relations Internationales. L'Afrique en questions. 41(6). https://policycommons.net/artifacts/1406366/democracy-in-africa/2020632/
• IIDEA (2017). Three decades of democratic transition in Africa: What are the dividends for citizens? Idea. https://www.idea.int/sites/default/files/publications/three-decades-of-democratic-transition-in-africa.pdf
• Keili, F. L. (2008). Small arms and light weapons transfer in West Africa: a stock taking Disarmament Forum. Disarmament forum, 4, 5-11.
• Kulkarni, P. (2023, August 3). People’s movements oppose West-backed military intervention by ECOWAS in Niger. Peoples Dispatch. https://peoplesdispatch.org/2023/08/03/peoples-movements-oppose-west-backed-military-intervention-by-ecowas-in-niger/#:~:text=Several%20left%20and%20people’s%20organizations,Mohamed%20Bazoum%20to%20Niger’s%20presidency
• Kuwali, D. (2022). Countering coups: Strengthening social contracts in Africa. The Raoul Wallenberg Institute of Human Rights and Humanitarian Law. https://rwi.lu.se/blog/countering-coups-strengthening-social-contracts-in-africa/
• Marinov, N. & Goemans, H. (2014). Coups and democracy. British Journal of Political Science 44 (4): 799–825. doi:10.1017/S0007123413000264
• Matei, F. (2021). Mali: The hot and cold relationship between military intervention and democratic consolidation. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics. https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-1882
• Mbaku, J. M. (2020). Threats to democracy in Africa: The rise of the constitutional coup. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/threats-to-democracy-in-africa-the-rise-of-the-constitutional-coup/
• Mbulle-Nziege, L. & Cheeseman, N. (2022). Coups in Africa: Why they don’t spell the end of democracy. BBC. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-60289571
• McMahon, R. B. & Slantchev, B. L. (2015). The guardianship dilemma: Regime security through and from the armed forces. American Political Science Review, 109(2), 297–313. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0003055415000131
• Munshi, N. & Schipani, A. (2021, November 14). Failure of democracy’: why are coups on the rise in Africa? Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/a669c8e3-a744-445c-b613-9ff83059c90c
• N’Diaye, B., Saine, A. & Houngnikpo, M. (2005). Not yet democracy: West Africa’s slow farewell to authoritarianism. Carolina Academic Press
• Ndiloseh, M. & Hudson, A. (2022). The new model of coups d'état in Africa: Younger, less violent, more popular. International IDEA. https://www.idea.int/blog/new-model-coups-d%C3%A9tat-africa-younger-less-violent-more-popular
• Obiezu, T. (2022). African analysts welcome ECOWAS peacekeeping force but skeptical of success. VOA, December 07. VOA News. https://www.voanews.com/a/african-analysts-welcome-ecowas-peacekeeping-force-but-skeptical-of-success-/6866389.html
• Olukoshi, A. (2018). Political reforms and link with governance at a UNOWAS regional colloquium on challenges and prospects of political reforms in West Africa, Abidjan, 26-27 March. https://unowas.unmissions.org/sites/default/files/unowas_magazine_n6_-_eng_online.pdf
• Onuah, F. (2022, December 5). West African leaders plan peacekeeping force to counter ‘coup belt’ reputation. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/west-african-leaders-plan-peacekeeping-force-counter-coup-belt-reputation-2022-12-04/
• Papada, E. D., Altman, F., Angiolillo, L., Gastaldi, T., Köhler, M., Lundstedt, N., Natsika, M., Nord, Y., Sato, F. W. & Staffan I. L. (2023). Defiance in the face of autocratization, democracy report 2023. V Dem. University of Gothenburg, Varieties of Democracy Institute. https://v-dem.net/documents/29/V-dem_democracyreport2023_lowres.pdf
• Perez, E. E. (2021). The Africa file is an analysis and assessment of the Salafi-jihadi movement in Africa and related security and political dynamics. Critical Threats. https://www.criticalthreats.org/briefs/africa-file/africa-file-coups-and-conflicts-benefit-autocrats-and-jihadis
• PSC Report. (2023). Is the AU failing coup countries? ISS. https://issafrica.org/pscreport/psc-insights/is-the-au-failing-coup-countries
• Rakner, L. (2019). Democratic rollback in Africa. Oxford research encyclopedia of politics. https://oxfordre.com/politics/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.001.0001/acrefore-9780190228637-e-887.
• Ronceray, M. (2023). Can ECOWAS still defend democracy in West Africa after the Niger coup? ECDPM. https://ecdpm.org/work/can-ecowas-still-defend-democracy-west-africa-after-niger-coup
• Sakor, B. Z., Sacko, M. & Soko, V. (2021). Military Coups d’état and Guinea’s rocky road to political stability. https://blogs.prio.org/2021/10/military-coups-detat-and-guineas-rocky-road-to-political-stability/
• Santamaria, C. (2022). Why West Africa might see more coups. Foreign Policy Research Institute. https://www.gzeromedia.com/why-west-africa-might-see-more-coups#toggle-gdpr
• Sharp, A. (2023, August 4). Niger’s coup is West Africa’s biggest challenge yet. Foreign Policy. https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/04/niger-coup-ecowas-military-intervention-mali-burkina-faso-nigeria-wagner/
• Siegle, J. (2021). Africa’s coups and the role of external actors. ISPI, December 14. Africa Center for Strategic Studies. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/africas-coups-and-the-role-of-external-actors/
• Siegle, J. (2023). The Creeping Loss of African Sovereignty – Africa Center for Strategic Studies. Africa Center for Strategic Studies. https://africacenter.org/experts/creeping-loss-african-sovereignty/
• Siegle, J. & Cook, C. (2021). Circumvention of term limits weakens governance in Africa. Africa Center for Strategic Studies. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/circumvention-of-term-limits-weakens-governance-in-africa/
• Siegle, J. & Eizenga, D. (2021, September 17). Walking back the coup in Guinea. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/guinea-coup-has-left-west-africas-regional-body-with-limited-options-but-there-are-some-168092
• Souaré, I. K. (2009). The AU and the challenge of unconstitutional changes of government in Africa. ISS Paper 197. https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/105906/P197.pdf
• Svolik, M. W. (2012). The politics of authoritarian rule. Cambridge University Press.
• The Guardian. (2023, August 2). Military intervention in Niger is ‘last resort’, says West African bloc. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/aug/02/african-bloc-to-meet-to-discuss-niger-coup-as-evacuations-continue
• The Mo Ibrahim Foundation. (2023). 2022 Ibrahim Index of African Governance. Mo Ibrahim Foundation. https://www.wathi.org/laboratoire/choix_de_wathi/2022-ibrahim-index-african-governance-index-report-mo-ibrahim-foundation-january-2023/
• The Punch. (2020, September 9) Africa’s unenviable record of sit-tight leaders. The Punch. https://punchng.com/africas-unenviable-record-of-sit-tight-leaders/
• Théroux-Bénoni, L. & Kanté, A. (2023). New targets needed to manage West Africa’s military transitions. ISS. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/new-targets-needed-to-manage-west-africas-military-transitions
• Thompson, G. (2023, August 7). Niger left in limbo as ECOWAS dithers on military intervention. France 24. https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20230807-why-is-ecowas-hesitant-over-military-intervention-in-niger
• Thurston, A. (2022). Burkina Faso coup: another example of the West’s military-first failures. Responsible Statecraft. https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2022/10/05/burkina-faso-coup-highlights-failure-of-wests-military-first-approach%EF%BF%BC/
• Thyne, C. L. & Powell, J. (2019). Coup research. Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. https://oxfordre.com/internationalstudies/view/10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.001.0001/acrefore-9780190846626-e-369
• Thyne, C. L. & Powell, J. M. (2014). Coup d’état or coup d’autocracy? How coups impact democratization, 1950 –2008. Foreign Policy Analysis. DOI: 10.1111/fpa.12046
• Thyne, C. L & Powell, J. M. (2023). Global ınstances of coups from 1950-present. Jonathan Powell. https://jonathanmpowell.com/coups/
• Transparency International. (2023). 2022 Corruption perceptions index reveals vicious cycle of corruption, violence and instability across Sub-Saharan Africa. Transparency International. https://www.transparency.org/en/press/2022-corruption-perceptions-index-reveals-vicious-cycle-of-corruption-violence-and-instability-across-sub-saharan-africa
• USIP. (2022). U.S. and African leaders need to focus on democratization. USIP. https://www.usip.org/publications/2022/12/us-and-african-leaders-need-focus-democratization
• Vasquez, J. P. & Powell, J. (2021). Institutional arsenals for democracy? The post-coup effects of conscript militaries. Armed Forces & Society, 47(2), 298–318. https://doi.org/10.1177/0095327X19871982
• Zounmenou, D. (2020). Third terms for presidents of Côte d’Ivoire and Guinea must be stopped. ISS. https://issafrica.org/iss-today/third-terms-for-presidents-of-cote-divoire-and-guinea-must-be-stopped