PARA POLİTİKASININ HİSSE SENEDİ GETİRİSİ ÜZERİNDEKİ ASİMETRİK ETKİSİ: BİST100 BOĞA VE AYI PİYASALARI ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2021, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 288 - 311, 26.03.2021

Can Karabıyık

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.804461

Abstract

Hisse senedi piyasasındaki hareketlilikler makro iktisadi yapı üzerinde önemli etkiler meydana getirmektedir. Bu nedenle borsalarda yaşanan oynaklıklar önemli birer istikrar göstergesi olarak kabul edilmektedir. Hızlı ve kolay uygulanabilme avantajlarına sahip olan para politikası ise, ekonomik istikrarsızlıklara müdahalede öncelikle tercih edilen iktisat politikası aracı niteliğindedir. Bu nedenle para politikasının borsalar üzerindeki etkisine ışık tutulması, etkin politika geliştirilmesi açısından hayati önem taşımaktadır. Bu araştırma ile Türkiye’deki parasal eylemlerin hisse senedi getirisi üzerindeki etkisi ampirik ve teorik açıdan ele alınmıştır. Ampirik çalışma için 1998Ç3-2020Ç1 dönemini kapsayan çeyreklik bir veri setinden faydalanılmıştır. Öte yandan para politikasının etkilerinin doğrusal olmadığı, mevcut iktisadi rejimin yapısına göre farklılaştığı iktisatçılar tarafından Büyük Buhrandan bu yana öne sürülmektedir. Bu nedenle para politikasının hisse senedi getirisi üzerindeki rejimsel etkisi Markov Rejim Değişimi Modeli kullanarak incelenmiş ve TCMB parasal eylemlerinin boğa piyasasında daha etkin olduğuna dair kanıtlar elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

Para Politikası, Hisse Senedi Getirisi, Doğrusal Olmayan Zaman Serileri, Markov Rejim Değişimi Modeli, Parasal Aktarım Mekanizması

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