ANALYSIS OF INTERNATIONAL OIL PRODUCTION COMPETITON USING GAME THEORY

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 994 - 1013, 29.07.2022

Kayhan Çelik , Fatih Kaplan

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.914942

Abstract

The assumption that the players in the international crude oil market are OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) member countries and non-OPEC oil producing countries is common. That the players enter into a competitive tendency by using various strategy sets such as production level and price to maximize profit and / or controlling the oil markets reveals that the market in question can be analyzed with game theory models. The aim of this study is to analyze the competitive oil production amounts of OPEC and non-OPEC countries on the basis of game theory. For this purpose, the production amounts and crude oil price series of these players covering the period 1972-2019 were used. The coefficients of production functions that show the existence of competition in oil markets are estimated by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square (FMOLS) method. Cournot-Nash and Stackelberg equilibrium solutions are calculated based on the obtained models. According to the Cournot-Nash equilibrium, at the Stackelberg equilibrium, it was observed that the production level of the leader player increased and the production level of the follower player decreased. The findings are in line with studies in which Cournot-Nash equilibrium outputs are higher than Stackelberg equilibrium outputs. It is suggested that the players stay in the Cournot-Nash equilibrium in order to reach the optimal level of production through production quantity and price strategies.

Keywords

Oil Market, Game Theory, Cournot-Nash Equilibrium, Stackelberg Equilibrium, OPEC

ULUSLARARASI PETROL ÜRETİM REKABETİNİN OYUN TEORİSİ İLE ANALİZİ

Abstract

Uluslararası ham petrol piyasasında oyuncuların OPEC (Petrol İhraç Eden Ülkeler Örgütü) üye ülkeleri ile OPEC’e üye olmayan petrol üreten ülkeler (non-OPEC) oldukları varsayımı yaygındır. Söz konusu oyuncuların kâr maksimizasyonu ve/veya petrol piyasalarını kontrol edebilme hedefiyle üretim seviyesi ve fiyat gibi çeşitli strateji kümeleri kullanarak rekabet eğilimine girmeleri söz konusu piyasanın oyun modelleri ile analiz edilebilirliğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, OPEC ve non-OPEC ülkelerinin rekabete dayalı petrol üretim miktarlarını oyun teorisi temelinde analiz etmektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, oyunculara ait 1972-2019 dönemini kapsayan üretim miktarları ve ham petrol fiyat serileri kullanılmıştır. Petrol piyasalarındaki rekabetin varlığına işaret eden üretim fonksiyonlarına ait katsayılar Tam Bilgi En Küçük Kareler (FMOLS- Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square) yöntemi ile tahmin edilmiştir. Elde edilen modellerden Cournot-Nash ve Stackelberg denge çözümleri hesaplanmıştır. Cournot-Nash denge düzeyine göre Stackelberg denge düzeylerinde lider oyuncunun üretiminin artığı, takipçi oyuncunun üretim düzeyinin ise azaldığı görülmüştür. Bulgular Cournot-Nash denge çıktılarının Stackelberg denge çıktılarından daha yüksek olduğu çalışmalar ile paralellik göstermiştir. Oyuncuların üretim miktarı ve fiyat stratejileri vasıtasıyla optimum üretim düzeyine ulaşmaları için Cournot-Nash dengesinde kalmaları önerilmektedir.

Keywords

Petrol Piyasası, Oyun Teorisi, Cournot-Nash Dengesi, Stackelberg Dengesi, OPEC

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