IS THERE A CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND PREMIUM PRODUCTION? EVIDENCE FROM TURKISH INSURANCE INDUSTRY

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 1388 - 1412, 02.08.2023

Özcan Işık , Mohsin Shabir , Murat Belke

https://doi.org/10.30798/makuiibf.1220299

Cited By: 4

Abstract

This study aims at determining the causal link between financial performance and premium production of non-life insurance companies. The relation between the financial performance and premium production is explored employing data from the 2011-2019 period for eight Turkish non-life insurance companies. In the first stage of the analysis, a hybrid model including LOPCOW, SWARA II, and MARCOS methods is proposed to determine companies’ financial performance values. In this stage, a novel integrated weighting method for calculating criterion weights is applied based on objective information and judgements of decision-makers. In the second stage, the association between financial performance and premium production is investigated by correlation analysis. In the last stage, the causality linkage between the two variables is estimated using a panel causality test developed by Dumitrescu and Hurlin (2012). According to the results obtained from the panel causality test, the bidirectional causality relation exists between financial performance and premium production. Besides, the individual panel causality results reveal that bidirectional causality is valid for only Allianz and Anadolu insurance companies, which had an average share of over 35% in total non-life premium production during the analysis period. The paper provides fresh evidence on the association between the financial performance and premium production, particularly from the Turkish context.

Keywords

Insurance, Financial Performance, Premium Production, LOPCOW, SWARA II, MARCOS, Panel Causality.

FİNANSAL PERFORMANS İLE PRİM ÜRETİMİ ARASINDA BİR NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ VAR MI? TÜRK SİGORTA SEKTÖRÜNDEN KANITLAR

Abstract

Bu çalışma, hayat dışı sigorta şirketlerinin finansal performansı ile prim üretimi arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini belirlemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Finansal performans ile prim üretimi arasındaki ilişki, sekiz Türk hayat dışı sigorta şirketi için 2011-2019 dönemi verileri kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Analizin ilk aşamasında şirketlerin finansal performans değerlerinin belirlenmesi için LOPCOW, SWARA II ve MARCOS yöntemlerini içeren hibrit bir model önerilmiştir. Bu aşamada, objektif bilgilere ve uzman komitesinin sübjektif yorumlarına dayalı olarak kriter ağırlıklarını hesaplamak için yeni bir entegre ağırlıklandırma yöntemi uygulanmıştır. İkinci aşamada ise finansal performans ile prim üretimi arasındaki ilişki korelasyon analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Son aşamada, iki değişken arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi, Dumitrescu ve Hurlin (2012) tarafından geliştirilen bir panel nedensellik testi kullanılarak tahmin edilmiştir. Panel nedensellik testinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre finansal performans ile prim üretimi arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi bulunmaktadır. Ayrıca, bireysel panel nedensellik sonuçları, analiz döneminde toplam hayat dışı prim üretiminde ortalama %35'in üzerinde paya sahip olan Allianz ve Anadolu sigorta şirketleri için çift yönlü nedenselliğin geçerli olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu makale özellikle Türkiye bağlamında finansal performans ile prim üretimi arasındaki ilişkiye dair yeni kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Keywords

Sigorta, Finansal Performans, Prim Üretimi, LOPCOW, SWARA II, MARCOS, Panel Nedensellik.

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