Accessibility of COVID-19 Vaccines in African Countries: A System Dynamics Model Examining Income, Logistics, and Governance
Year 2024,
Volume: 11 Issue: 4, 1327 - 1348, 31.12.2024
Oya Öztürk
,
Muhammed Çelik
Abstract
To combat the COVID-19 pandemic, pharmaceutical companies, biotech companies, national governments, and universities have jointly developed a variety of vaccines. After this stage, widespread and effective vaccination on a global scale has become the most crucial aspect in the fight against the pandemic. The discovery of vaccines has brought up the issue of how to deliver them quickly and fairly to those living in underdeveloped countries. Vaccination encompasses not only the medical aspect but also the concepts of accessibility, availability, equitable, fair, and rapid distribution as a whole. The main theme of our study is to comparatively highlight the impact of factors other than the medical aspect of vaccination on vaccination, specifically within the context of the African continent. African countries particularly have faced the most problems in accessing and distributing vaccines. This study aims to identify the barriers to the delivery of the Covid-19 vaccine to African countries. In this study, we analyzed the vaccine supply, governance index, and logistics infrastructure factors affecting access to vaccines in the context of various scenarios, using the system dynamics method. The findings of this study show that income level is the most significant variable. Additionally, improving logistics performance and infrastructure and governance index increase more equitable access to vaccines in African countries.
Ethical Statement
The study does not necessitate Ethics Committee permission.
The study has been crafted in adherence to the principles of research and publication ethics.
The authors declare that there exists no financial conflict of interest involving any institution, organization, or individual(s) associated with the article. Furthermore, there are no conflicts of interest among the authors themselves.
The authors declare that they all equally contributed to all processes of the research.
References
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- Baghbanzadeh, M., Smith, M., Pilz, J., Rahman, M.S., Krameiç-Muratoviç, A., Garg, A., Annan, E., Nuguen, U.D.T,
Schedler, N., Nandy, R., Islam, R. and Hakue, U. (2022). Country-Level governance indicators as predictors of COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, and vaccination coverage: an exploratory global analysis. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.22-0107
- Basak, P.., Abir, T.,Mamun, A.A., Zainol, N. R., Khanam, M. Hakue, R., Milton, A. H. & Agho K. E. (2022). A global study on the correlates of gross domestic product (GDP) and COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Vaccines, 266(10) , 1-13. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10020266
- Bollyky, T., Gostin L. & Hamburg MA. (2020). The equitable distribution of COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. JAMA, 323(24), 2462–2463. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6641
- Bonaccorsi, G., Pierri, F., Cinelli, M., Flori, A., Galeazzi, A., Porcelli, F., Schmidt, A. L., Valensise, C. M., Scala, A., Quattrociocchi, W., & Pammolli, F. (2020). Economic and social consequences of human mobilityrestrictions under COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007658117/-/DCSupplementaly
- Duijzer, E. l.,Jaarveld, W. & Dekkerd, R. (2018). Literature review - the vaccine supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.01.015
- Ebobisse, A. (2021). Improving infrastructure in Africa: creating long-term resilience through investment. Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/improving-infrastructure-in-africa-creating-long-term-resilience-through-investment/
- Economist. (2020). Why are some African countries improving and others not?, Economist, https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/03/26/why-are-some-african-countries-improving-and-others-not?
- Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial dynamics (1st ed.). Massachusets Instituteof Technology.
- Idris, I. O., Ayeni, G. O., & Adebisi, Y. A. (2022). Why many African countries may not achieve the 2022 COVID-19 vaccination coverage target. Tropical Medicine and Health, 50(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-022-00407-6
- Igor, B. & Coccia, M., (2022). Global analysis of timely COVID-19 vaccinations: Improving governance to reinforce response policies for pandemic crises. Drivers of timely COVID-19 vaccinations to cope with pandemic impact A Global analysis. International Journal of Health Governance. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHG-07-2021-0072
- Litaker, J. and Kozlakidis, Z. (2021). COVID-19: Challenges of vaccination logistics. Open Access Government, https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/covid-19-challenges-of-vaccination-logistics/117758/
Wang, J., Ji, Q., Dong, S., Zhao, S., Li, X., Zhu, Q., Long, S., Zhang, J.& Jin, H. (2021). Factors Influencing Vaccine
Hesitancy in China: A Qualitative Study. Vaccines. (9) , 1291. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9111291
- Lucero-Prisno, D. E., Ogunkola, I. O., Esu, E. B., Adebisi, Y. A., Lin, X., & Li, H. (2021a). Can Africa achieve herd immunity?. Global Health Research and Policy, 6(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41256-021-00231-1
- Lucero-Prisno, D. E., Ogunkola, I. O., Imo, U. F., & Adebisi, Y. A. (2021b). Perspective piece who will pay for the COVID-19 vaccines for Africa? American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 104(3), 794–796. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-1506
- Masia, N.A., Jonathan , S.,Tendai, K., Manning, R. & Showalter, M. (2018). Vaccination And GPD Growt Rates: Explore The Links İn The Condinational Conferange Framework. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect, World Development, (183) , 88-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.013
- Mataba, K., & Ismail, F. (2021). WIDER Working Paper 2021 / 67 COVID-19 and trade facilitation in Southern Africa Implications for the AfCFTA. Zbw, April, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/005-4
Mathieu, E., Richie, E., Rodes-Guiraola, E., Appel, C., Gavrilov, D., Giattino, C., Hassel, J., Mcdonald, B., Dattani, S.,
Beltekian, D., Ortiz-Ospina, E. and Rossel, M. (2022). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations. Ourworldindata.
Mwai, P., (2021). Covid-19 vaccinations: African nations miss WHO target. British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), https://www.bbc.com/news/56100076
- Ngo, V. M., Zimmerman, K. F., Nguyen, P. V., Huynh, T.L.D. & Nguyen, H.H. (2022). How education and GDP drive the COVID-19 vaccination campaig. Archives of Public Health, 171(80). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-022-00924-0
- Ogunkola, I. O., Adebisi, Y. A., Imo, U. F., Odey, G. O., Esu, E., & Lucero-Prisno, D. E. (2020). Rural communities in Africa should not be forgotten in responses to COVID-19. International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 35(6), 1302–1305. https://doi.org/10.1002/hpm.3039
- Roope, L. S. J., Buckell, J., Becker, F., Candio, P., Violato, M., Sindelar, J. L., Barnett, A., Duch, R., & Clarke, P. M. (2020). How should a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine be allocated? Health economists need to be ready to take the baton. In PharmacoEconomics - Open 4, (4), pp. 557–561). Adis. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41669-020-00228-5
- Saleska, J. L., & Choi, K. R. (2021). A behavioral economics perspective on the COVID-19 vaccine amid public mistrust. Translational Behavioral Medicine, 11(3), 821–825. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/tbm/ibaa147
- Saysel, A. K., Barlas, Y., & Yenigün, O. (2002). Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach. Journal of Environmental Management, 64(3), 247–260. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2001.0488
- Shretta, R., Hupert, N. and White, J.L. (2021). Vaccinating the world against COVID-19: Getting the delivery right is the greatest challenge. BMJ Global Health, 6 (3). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005273
- Shoji, T. & Aida, T. (2021). Does good national governance boost COVID-19 vaccination? Cross-Country Evidence. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-888069/v1
- Quilici, S., Smith, R. and Signorelli, C., (2015). Role of vaccination in economic growt. Journal of Market Access & Health 1 (3) . https://doi.org/10.3402/jmahp.v3.27044
- Williams, V., Edem, B., Calnan, M., Otwombe, K.& Oceahalam, C. (2021). Considerations for establishing successful coronavirus disease vaccination programs in Africa. Emergin İnfectıous Diseases 27 (8) , 2009-2017. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2708.203870
- World Healty Organization. (2022a). Vaccine equity. WHO, https://www.who.int/campaigns/vaccine-equity
- World Healty Organization. (2022b). WHO African Region numbers at a glance. WHO, https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus-covid-19
- Worldometer. (2022). Africa Population. Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/
- Yamey, G., Schäferhoff, M., Hatchett, R., Pate, M., Zhao, F., & McDade, K. K. (2020). Ensuring global access to COVID-19 vaccines. The Lancet, 41(16), 1405–1406. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa121
Accessibility of COVID-19 Vaccines in African Countries: A System Dynamics Model Examining Income, Logistics, and Governance
Year 2024,
Volume: 11 Issue: 4, 1327 - 1348, 31.12.2024
Oya Öztürk
,
Muhammed Çelik
Abstract
To combat the COVID-19 pandemic, pharmaceutical companies, biotech companies, national governments, and universities have jointly developed a variety of vaccines. After this stage, widespread and effective vaccination on a global scale has become the most crucial aspect in the fight against the pandemic. The discovery of vaccines has brought up the issue of how to deliver them quickly and fairly to those living in underdeveloped countries. Vaccination encompasses not only the medical aspect but also the concepts of accessibility, availability, equitable, fair, and rapid distribution as a whole. The main theme of our study is to comparatively highlight the impact of factors other than the medical aspect of vaccination on vaccination, specifically within the context of the African continent. African countries particularly have faced the most problems in accessing and distributing vaccines. This study aims to identify the barriers to the delivery of the Covid-19 vaccine to African countries. In this study, we analyzed the vaccine supply, governance index, and logistics infrastructure factors affecting access to vaccines in the context of various scenarios, using the system dynamics method. The findings of this study show that income level is the most significant variable. Additionally, improving logistics performance and infrastructure and governance index increase more equitable access to vaccines in African countries.
References
- Addae Korankye, A. (2014). Causes of poverty in Africa: a review of literature , American International Journal of Social Science, 3(7) , 147-153.
- Baghbanzadeh, M., Smith, M., Pilz, J., Rahman, M.S., Krameiç-Muratoviç, A., Garg, A., Annan, E., Nuguen, U.D.T,
Schedler, N., Nandy, R., Islam, R. and Hakue, U. (2022). Country-Level governance indicators as predictors of COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, and vaccination coverage: an exploratory global analysis. The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.22-0107
- Basak, P.., Abir, T.,Mamun, A.A., Zainol, N. R., Khanam, M. Hakue, R., Milton, A. H. & Agho K. E. (2022). A global study on the correlates of gross domestic product (GDP) and COVID-19 vaccine distribution. Vaccines, 266(10) , 1-13. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines10020266
- Bollyky, T., Gostin L. & Hamburg MA. (2020). The equitable distribution of COVID-19 therapeutics and vaccines. JAMA, 323(24), 2462–2463. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2020.6641
- Bonaccorsi, G., Pierri, F., Cinelli, M., Flori, A., Galeazzi, A., Porcelli, F., Schmidt, A. L., Valensise, C. M., Scala, A., Quattrociocchi, W., & Pammolli, F. (2020). Economic and social consequences of human mobilityrestrictions under COVID-19. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2007658117/-/DCSupplementaly
- Duijzer, E. l.,Jaarveld, W. & Dekkerd, R. (2018). Literature review - the vaccine supply chain. European Journal of Operational Research. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.01.015
- Ebobisse, A. (2021). Improving infrastructure in Africa: creating long-term resilience through investment. Brookings, https://www.brookings.edu/articles/improving-infrastructure-in-africa-creating-long-term-resilience-through-investment/
- Economist. (2020). Why are some African countries improving and others not?, Economist, https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/03/26/why-are-some-african-countries-improving-and-others-not?
- Forrester, J. W. (1961). Industrial dynamics (1st ed.). Massachusets Instituteof Technology.
- Idris, I. O., Ayeni, G. O., & Adebisi, Y. A. (2022). Why many African countries may not achieve the 2022 COVID-19 vaccination coverage target. Tropical Medicine and Health, 50(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s41182-022-00407-6
- Igor, B. & Coccia, M., (2022). Global analysis of timely COVID-19 vaccinations: Improving governance to reinforce response policies for pandemic crises. Drivers of timely COVID-19 vaccinations to cope with pandemic impact A Global analysis. International Journal of Health Governance. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHG-07-2021-0072
- Litaker, J. and Kozlakidis, Z. (2021). COVID-19: Challenges of vaccination logistics. Open Access Government, https://www.openaccessgovernment.org/covid-19-challenges-of-vaccination-logistics/117758/
Wang, J., Ji, Q., Dong, S., Zhao, S., Li, X., Zhu, Q., Long, S., Zhang, J.& Jin, H. (2021). Factors Influencing Vaccine
Hesitancy in China: A Qualitative Study. Vaccines. (9) , 1291. https://doi.org/10.3390/vaccines9111291
- Lucero-Prisno, D. E., Ogunkola, I. O., Esu, E. B., Adebisi, Y. A., Lin, X., & Li, H. (2021a). Can Africa achieve herd immunity?. Global Health Research and Policy, 6(1), 1–6. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41256-021-00231-1
- Lucero-Prisno, D. E., Ogunkola, I. O., Imo, U. F., & Adebisi, Y. A. (2021b). Perspective piece who will pay for the COVID-19 vaccines for Africa? American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, 104(3), 794–796. https://doi.org/10.4269/ajtmh.20-1506
- Masia, N.A., Jonathan , S.,Tendai, K., Manning, R. & Showalter, M. (2018). Vaccination And GPD Growt Rates: Explore The Links İn The Condinational Conferange Framework. Contents lists available at ScienceDirect, World Development, (183) , 88-99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.10.013
- Mataba, K., & Ismail, F. (2021). WIDER Working Paper 2021 / 67 COVID-19 and trade facilitation in Southern Africa Implications for the AfCFTA. Zbw, April, 1–18. https://doi.org/10.35188/UNU-WIDER/2021/005-4
Mathieu, E., Richie, E., Rodes-Guiraola, E., Appel, C., Gavrilov, D., Giattino, C., Hassel, J., Mcdonald, B., Dattani, S.,
Beltekian, D., Ortiz-Ospina, E. and Rossel, M. (2022). Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations. Ourworldindata.
Mwai, P., (2021). Covid-19 vaccinations: African nations miss WHO target. British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), https://www.bbc.com/news/56100076
- Ngo, V. M., Zimmerman, K. F., Nguyen, P. V., Huynh, T.L.D. & Nguyen, H.H. (2022). How education and GDP drive the COVID-19 vaccination campaig. Archives of Public Health, 171(80). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13690-022-00924-0
- Ogunkola, I. O., Adebisi, Y. A., Imo, U. F., Odey, G. O., Esu, E., & Lucero-Prisno, D. E. (2020). Rural communities in Africa should not be forgotten in responses to COVID-19. International Journal of Health Planning and Management, 35(6), 1302–1305. https://doi.org/10.1002/hpm.3039
- Roope, L. S. J., Buckell, J., Becker, F., Candio, P., Violato, M., Sindelar, J. L., Barnett, A., Duch, R., & Clarke, P. M. (2020). How should a safe and effective COVID-19 vaccine be allocated? Health economists need to be ready to take the baton. In PharmacoEconomics - Open 4, (4), pp. 557–561). Adis. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41669-020-00228-5
- Saleska, J. L., & Choi, K. R. (2021). A behavioral economics perspective on the COVID-19 vaccine amid public mistrust. Translational Behavioral Medicine, 11(3), 821–825. https://doi.org/ 10.1093/tbm/ibaa147
- Saysel, A. K., Barlas, Y., & Yenigün, O. (2002). Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach. Journal of Environmental Management, 64(3), 247–260. https://doi.org/10.1006/jema.2001.0488
- Shretta, R., Hupert, N. and White, J.L. (2021). Vaccinating the world against COVID-19: Getting the delivery right is the greatest challenge. BMJ Global Health, 6 (3). https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005273
- Shoji, T. & Aida, T. (2021). Does good national governance boost COVID-19 vaccination? Cross-Country Evidence. Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-888069/v1
- Quilici, S., Smith, R. and Signorelli, C., (2015). Role of vaccination in economic growt. Journal of Market Access & Health 1 (3) . https://doi.org/10.3402/jmahp.v3.27044
- Williams, V., Edem, B., Calnan, M., Otwombe, K.& Oceahalam, C. (2021). Considerations for establishing successful coronavirus disease vaccination programs in Africa. Emergin İnfectıous Diseases 27 (8) , 2009-2017. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2708.203870
- World Healty Organization. (2022a). Vaccine equity. WHO, https://www.who.int/campaigns/vaccine-equity
- World Healty Organization. (2022b). WHO African Region numbers at a glance. WHO, https://www.afro.who.int/health-topics/coronavirus-covid-19
- Worldometer. (2022). Africa Population. Worldometer, https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/africa-population/
- Yamey, G., Schäferhoff, M., Hatchett, R., Pate, M., Zhao, F., & McDade, K. K. (2020). Ensuring global access to COVID-19 vaccines. The Lancet, 41(16), 1405–1406. https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaa121