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Year 2013, Volume: 4 Issue: 8, 111 - 144, 04.02.2014

Gönül Yüce , Merter Akıncı , Ömer Yılmaz

Abstract

In this paper, the linkages between financial development and economic growth in selected 44 countries are investigated by using cointegration and causality tests within the context of time series analysis in the period 1980 – 2011. To measure the financial development four proxy variables are used and for the economic growth the percent changes of GDP with constant prices are taken into consideration. The results of the Johansen cointegration analysis show that the cointegration relationship between the financial development and economic growth is detected for some countries, except for Austria, Barbados, Denmark, Hong – Kong, Israel and UAE. In addition, the findings of Granger causality analysis indicate that the causality relationship is valid in the total of 31 countries, the three of them are Austria, Denmark and UAE in which the long – run relations cannot be reached. Besides, the bidirectional causality nexus among the variables is obtained in Finland, Poland and UAE. As a whole, it is possible to say that the view of demand following is valid for some country group, while the supply leading phenomenon is valid for the other country group.

Keywords

Financial Development Economic Growth Johansen Cointegration Analysis Granger Causality Analysis

References

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FİNANSAL KALKINMA İLE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: ÇOK ÜLKELİ BİR ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ

Year 2013, Volume: 4 Issue: 8, 111 - 144, 04.02.2014

Gönül Yüce , Merter Akıncı , Ömer Yılmaz

Abstract

Bu çalışmada; seçilmiş 44 ülkede finansal kalkınma ile iktisadi büyüme arasındaki ilişkiler zaman
serisi analizleri kapsamında eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik testleri kullanılarak 1980 – 2011 dönemi
için araştırılmıştır. Finansal kalkınmayı temsilen dört vekil değişken ve iktisadi büyüme içinse reel
GSYİH’daki yüzde değişim kullanılmıştır. Johansen eşbütünleşme test sonuçları; Avusturya, Barbados,
Danimarka, Hong – Kong, İsrail ve BAE dışındaki ülkeler için finansal kalkınma ile iktisadi
büyüme arasında eşbütünleşik ilişkilerin varlığını göstermiştir. İlaveten Granger nedensellik analizi
bulguları ise, uzun dönemli ilişkilerin elde edilemediği ülkelerden olan Avusturya, Danimarka ve
BAE’de dahil olmak üzere toplam 31 ülkede nedensellik ilişkilerine ulaşıldığını göstermiştir. Ayrıca;
Finlandiya, Polonya ve BAE’de ilgili değişkenler arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi elde edilmiştir.
Bu sonuçlar bir bütün olarak değerlendirildiğinde çalışmamızdaki bir takım ülkeler için talep
takibi görüşünün, diğer bir kısmı içinse arz önderliği hipotezinin geçerli olduğu belirtilebilir.

Keywords

Finansal Kalkınma İktisadi Büyüme Johansen Eşbütünleşme Analizi Granger Nedensellik Analizi

References

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  • AĞAYEV, Seymur (2012), “Geçiş Ekonomilerinde Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Marmara Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, Cilt 32, Sayı 1, ss. 155-164.
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  • AHMED, S. M. and ANSARI, M. I. (1998), “Financial Sector Development and Economic Growth: The South-Asian Experience”, Journal of Asian Economics, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 503-517.
  • AK, Rengin and KARA, Ekrem (2011), “The Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Econometric Model”, European Journal of Scientific Research, Vol. 54, No. 4, pp. 522-531.
  • AKINBOADE, O. A. (1998), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Botswana: A Test for Causality”, Savings and Development, Vol. 22, No. 3, pp. 331-348.
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  • AL-YOUSIF, Y. Khalifa (2002), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Another Look at the Evidence from Developing Countries”, Review of Financial Economics, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 131-150.
  • ANDERSEN, Thomas B. and TARP, Finn (2003), “Financial Liberalization, Financial Development and Economic Growth in LDCs”, Journal of International Development, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 189- 209.
  • ANG, James B. and MCKIBBIN, Warwick J. (2007), “Financial Liberalization, Financial Sector Development and Growth: Evidence from Malaysia”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 84, No. 1, pp. 215-233.
  • ANG, James B. (2008), “What Are the Mechanisms Linking Financial Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia?”, Economic Modelling, Vol. 25, No. 1, pp. 38-53.
  • APERGIS, Nicholas, FILIPPIDIS, Ioannis and ECONOMIDOU, Claire (2007), “Financial Deepening and Economic Growth Linkages: A Panel Data Analysis”, Review of World Economics, Vol. 143, No. 1, pp. 179-198.
  • ARESTIS, Philip, DEMETRIADES, Panicos O. and LUINTEL, Kul B. (2001), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 16-41.
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  • BENCIVENGA, Valerie and SMITH, Bruce D. (1991), “Financial Intermediation and Endogenous Growth”, Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp. 195-209.
  • BHATTACHARYA, Prabir C. and SIVASUBRAMANIAN, M. N. (2003), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in India: 1970-71 to 1998-99”, Applied Financial Economics, Vol. 13, No. 12, pp. 925-929.
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  • BOULILA, Ghazi and TRABELSI, Mohamed (2004), “The Causality Issue in the Finance and Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence from MENA Countries”, Review of Middle-East Economics and Finance, Vol. 2, No. 2, pp. 123-138.
  • BUFFIE, Edward F. (1984), “Financial Repression, the New Structuralists and Stabilization Policy in Semi-Industrialized Economies”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp. 305-322.
  • CALDERON, Cesar and LIU, Lin (2003), “The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 72, No. 1, pp. 321-334.
  • CAPORALE, Guglielmo M., RAULT, Christophe, SOVA, Robert and Sova, Anamaria (2009), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ten New EU Members”, DIW Discussion Papers, No. 940, pp. 1-39.
  • CHAKRABORTY, Indrani (2010), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in India: An Analysis of the Post-Reform Period”, South Asia Economic Journal, Vol. 11, No. 2, pp. 287-308.
  • CHANDAVARKAR, Anand (1992), “Of Finance and Development: Neglected and Unsettled Questions”, World Development, Vol. 20, No. 1, pp. 133-142.
  • CHANG, Tsangyao (2002), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Mainland China: A Note on Testing Demand-Following or Supply-Leading Hypothesis”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 9, No. 13, pp. 869-873.
  • CHAREMZA, Wojciech W. and DEADMAN, Derek F. (1993), New Directions in Econometric Practice, Edward Elgar Publishing, UK.
  • CHOONG, Chee K., YUSOP, Zulkornian, LAW, Siong H. and LİEW, Venus K. S. (2005), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Malaysia: The Perspective of Stock Market”, Investment Management and Financial Innovations, Vol. 4, pp. 105-115.
  • CHRISTOPOULOS, Dimitris K. and TSIONAS, Efthymios G. (2004), “Financial Development and Economic Growth: Evidence from Panel Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 73, No. 1, pp. 55-74.
  • DAWSON, P. J. (2003), “Financial Development and Growth in Economies in Transition”, Applied Economics Letters, Vol. 10, No. 13, pp. 833-836.
  • DE GREGORIO, Jose and GUIDOTTI, Pablo E. (1995), “Financial Development and Economic Growth”, World Development, Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 433-448.
  • DEMETRIADES, Panicos O. and HUSSEIN, Khaled A. (1996), “Does Financial Development Cause Economic Growth? Time-Series Evidence from 16 Countries”, Journal of Development Economics, Vol. 51, No. 2, pp. 387-411.
  • DIAMOND, Douglas W. and VERRECCHIA, Robert E. (1982), “Optimal Managerial Contracts and Equilibrium Security Prices”, Journal of Finance, Vol. 37, No. 2, pp. 275-287. DICKEY, David A. and FULLER, Wayne A. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Series with a Unit Root”, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 74, No. 366, pp. 427-431.
  • DICKEY, David A. and FULLER, Wayne A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, Vol. 49, No. 4, pp. 1057-1072.
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Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Gönül Yüce

Merter Akıncı

Ömer Yılmaz

Publication Date February 4, 2014
Submission Date February 4, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2013 Volume: 4 Issue: 8

Cite

APA Yüce, G., Akıncı, M., & Yılmaz, Ö. (2014). FİNANSAL KALKINMA İLE İKTİSADİ BÜYÜME ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: ÇOK ÜLKELİ BİR ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ. Finansal Araştırmalar Ve Çalışmalar Dergisi, 4(8), 111-144.
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