REGIONAL DOLLARIZATION DIFFERENCES AND DETERMINANTS: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Year 2022, , 295 - 315, 30.01.2022

Ramazan Aktaş , Ümit Aydınlık

https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.1010252

Cited By: 3

Abstract

This study investigates the determinants of deposit dollarization within 81 cities of Turkey for the period of 2007:Q4 – 2019:Q1. Within this scope, exchange rate, CDS premiums, city inflation, city export and import are used to model deposit dollarization. As an econometric approach both fixed and random effect panel data methods are implemented using relevant libraries in Python programming language to measure the impact of independent variables. As a result, all independent variables have statistically significant and positive effect on deposit dollarization within cities. When evaluated according to the effect sizes, inflation, import, export, exchange rate and CDS premiums are considered to be determinant, respectively, on deposit dollarization in Turkish cities. On the other hand, when the two models are tested with the Hausman test, which has a null hypothesis “random effect estimator is true”, it is concluded that the random effect model is more suitable for our model. In addition, to see if citizens living abroad that have registered in the cities have an impact on the dollarization, Pearson correlation is conducted and it is found that there is relatively strong correlation between the number of expatriate citizens and deposit dollarization in the city.

Keywords

Dollarization, Panel Data, Regional Analysis, City-level Analysis

BÖLGESEL DOLARİZASYON FARKLILIKLARI VE BELİRLEYİCİLERİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Abstract

Bu makale Türkiye’nin 81 ilindeki 2007:Q4 ve 2019:Q1 dönemi mevduat dolarizasyonunun belirleyicilerini konu edinmekte olup, bu kapsamda mevduat dolarizasyonunu döviz kuru, CDS primleri, il enflasyonu, il ihracatı ve il ithalatının bir fonksiyonu olarak ele almaktadır. Ekonometrik model olarak panel veri analiz yöntemlerinden sabit etkili (fixed effect) model ile rassal (random) etkili modelin Python programlama dilinde ilgili kütüphaneleri kullanılarak yapılan çalışmada, öncelikle tüm bağımsız değişkenlerinin dolarizasyon üzerinde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir biçimde ve pozitif bir ilişkiye sahip olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Etki büyüklüklerine göre değerlendirildiğinde ise, sırasıyla, enflasyon, ithalat, ihracat, döviz kuru ve CDS primlerinin illerdeki mevduat dolarizasyonu üzerinde belirleyici olduğu değerlendirilmektedir. Diğer taraftan, sıfır (null) hipotezi “rassal etkili model (random effect) tahmincisi doğrudur” olan Hausman testi ile iki model sınandığında, modelimiz için rassal (random) etkili modelin daha uygun olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca, yurtdışında yaşayan gurbetçi vatandaşların illerdeki dolarizasyon üzerinde bir etkisi olup olmadığına bakmak için sabit (fixed) etkili modelde her bir il için hesaplanan sabit terim ile il nüfusuna kayıtlı gurbetçi vatandaşlar (Türkiye Cumhuriyeti vatandaşı olup yurtdışında ikamet eden) arasında nispeten güçlü sayılabilecek bir korelasyon bulunmuştur.

Keywords

Dolarizasyon, Panel Veri, Bölgesel Analiz, İl Analiz

References

• Akçay, C., Alper, E., & Karasulu, M. (1997). Currency Substitution and Exchange Rate Instability: The Turkish Case. European Economic Review, 41, 827-835.
• Akıncı, Ö., Barlas, Y., & Usta, B. (2005). Dolarizasyon Endeksleri: Türkiye’Deki Dolarizasyon Sürecine İlişkin Göstergeler. CBRT Working Paper, No: 05/17.
• Alp, B., & Yalçın, C. (2015). Türkiye’de Şirketlerin Borç Dolarizasyonu ve Büyüme Performansı. CBRT Working Paper, 15(01), 1-41.
• Arellano, C., & Heathcote, J. (2010). Dollarization and Financial Integration. Journal of Economic Theory, 145(3), 944-973.
• Arteta, C. (2003). Are Financially Dollarized Countries More Prone to Costly Crises?. International Financial Discussion Paper (763). Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
• Baykut, E., & Erdoğdu, H. (2019). Türkiye’de Yerleşik Bireyler ve Şirketlerin Döviz Hesaplarının Ekonometrik Analizi. Bankacılar Dergisi, 110, 40-41.
• Brown, M., Haas, R., & Sokolov, V. (2013). Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization. Hıt-Refıned Working Paper Series 22. Institute of Economic Research. Hitotsubashi University.
• Brown, M., & Stix, H. (2015). The euroization of bank deposits in Eastern Europe. Economic Policy, CEPR; CES; MSH, vol. 30(81).
• Canofari, P., & Marini, G. (2014). Measuring Currency Pressure and Contagion Risks in Countries under Monetary Unions: The Case of Euro. International Atlantic Economic Society, 42, 455-469.
• Capasso, S., & K. C. Neanidis, (2019). Domestic or Foreign Currency? Remittances and The Composition of Deposits and Loans, Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 220.
• Civcir, I. (2005), Dollarization and its Long-run Determinants in Turkey, in Simon Neaime, Nora Ann Colton (ed.) Money and Finance in the Middle East: Missed Oportunities or Future Prospects? (Research in Middle East Economics, Volume 6, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, pp.201-232
• Corrales, J. S., & Imam, P. A. (2019). Financial Dollarization of Households and Firms: Does It Differ?. IMF Working Papers 19/19, International Monetary Fund.
• Cristo, M., & Puig, M. (2014). Dollarization and the Relationship Between EMBI and Fundamentals Latin American Countries. IREA Working Papers 201406, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2014.
• Çağlayan, M., & Talavera, O. (2016). Dollarization, Liquidity andPerformance: Evidence from Turkish Banking. International Finance and Banking Society Conference, Barcelona.
• Domac, I., & Oskooee, B. M. (2003). On the Link between Dollarization and Inflation: Evidence from Turkey. Comparative Economic Studies, 45, 306-328.
• Dumrul, C. (2010). Türk Ekonomisinde Para İkamesinin Belirleyicilerinin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı İle Eş-Bütünleşme Analizi. Erciyes University, Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 5, 199-231.
• Edwards, S., & Magendzo, I. (2004). Strict Dollarization and Economic Performance: An Empirical Investigation. NBER Working Paper Series, Cambridge, MA, United States: National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Ertürk, E. (1991). Türkiye İktisadında Yeni Bir Boyut, Para İkamesi: Kavram Teori, Oluşum Süreci ve Sonuçları. Bursa: Uludağ Yayınları.
• Hakioğlu, D. (1988). Türkiye’de Para İkamesi, CBRT Working Paper, No: 8801.
• Honig, A. (2009). Dollarization, Exchange Rate Regimes and Government Quality. Journal of International Money and Finance, 28(2), 198-214.
• Honohan, P. (2007). Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations. CEPR Discussion Paper 6205.
• Honohan, P., & Shi, A. (2001). Deposit Dollarization and the Financial Sector in Emerging Economies. World Bank Policy Research Çalışma Tebliği No: 2748.
• IADB. (2005). IPES 2005 Unlocking Credit The Quest for Deep and Stable Bank Lending.
• Kaya, E., & Açdoyuran, B. (2018). Finansal Dolarizasyon Unsurları Olarak Kredi Dolarizasyonu ve Mevduat Dolarizasyonu ile Hisse Senedi Getirileri Arasındaki İlişki. Dicle University, Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Special Issue of the International Symposium on Economics, Politics and Management.
• Larrain, F. B., & Tavares, J. (2003). Regional Currencies Versus Dollarization: Options for Asia and the Americas. Policy Reform, 6(1), 35-49.
• Lay, S. H., Kakinaka, M., & Kotani, K. (2010). Exchange Rate Movements in a Dollarized Economy: The Case of Cambodia. International University of Japan Economics & Management Series.
• Levy-Yeyati, E. (2006). Financial Dollarization: Evaluating The Consequences. Economic Policy, 61-118.
• Lin, S., & H. Ye, (2010). Dollarization does promote trade. Journal of International Money and Finance, 29(6), 1124-1130.
• Luca, A. C., & Olivero, M. P. (2012). Twin Crises in Emerging Markets: The Role of Liability Dollarization and Imperfect Competition in Banking. Review of Development Economics, 16(1), 72-94.
• Marcelin, I., & Mathur, I. (2016). Financial Sector Development and Dollarization in Emerging Economies. International Review of Financial Analysis, 46, 20-32.
• Neanidis, K. C. (2010). Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership. International Finance, 13, 257-282.
• Neanidis, K. C., & Savva, C. S. (2015). Is Loan Dollarization Contagious Across Countries? Evidence from Transition Economies. Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series, University of Manchester, No. 200.
• Neanidis, K. C., & Savva, C. S. (2006). The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies. CGBCR Discussion Paper.
• Neanidis, K. C., & Savva, C. S. (2009). Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies. Journal of Banking and Finance, 33, 1860-1873.
• Neanidis, K. C., & Savva, C. S. (2013). Institutions and Financial Dollarization: Indirect Effects Based on A Policy Experiment. Economics Letters, 121, 405-410.
• Nicolo, G., Honohan, P., & Ize, A. (2003). Dollarization of the Banking System: Good or Bad?. IMF Working Paper No: 03/146.
• Özcan, K. M., & Us, V. (2007). Dedollarization in Turkey After Decades of Dollarization: A Myth or Reality?. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and Its Applications, 385, 292- 306.
• Özen, A. E. (2018). Dolarizasyon Olgusu: Teorik Bir İnceleme ve Türkiye Örneği. Journal of Economics, Policy and Finance Studies, 3(1), 101-113.
• Özkaramete, N. (1996). Türkiye’de Dolarizasyon ve Para İkamesi:1990-1995. Journal of Economic Approach, 7(20), 99-106.
• Ponomarenko, A., Solovyeva, A., and Vasilieva, E. (2013). Financial Dollarization in Russia: Causesandconsequences, Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, 6(2), 221-243.
• Ramirez-Rojas, C.L. (1985). Currency Substitution in Argentina, Mexico and Uruguay. IMF Staff Papers, 32, 627-667.
• Reinhart, C., Rogoff, R., & Savastano, M. (2003). Addicted to Dollars. NBER Working Paper No. 10015 (Cambridge, Massachusetts: National Bureau of Economic Research).
• Sever, E. (2012).Türkiye'de Dolarizasyon Süreci ve Döviz Kuru Belirsizliği İlişkisi. Journal of Socio Economics, 1, 204-222.
• Soto, R. (2009). Dollarization, Economic Growth and Employment. Economics Letters, 105, 42-45.
• Stix, H. (2013). Why Do People Save in Cash? Distrust, Memories of Banking Crises, Weak Institutions and Dollarization. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37, 4087-4106.
• Terzi, H., & S. Kurt, (2007). Dolarizasyon, Enflasyonve Reel Döviz Kuru İlişkisinin Var Analizi İle Tespiti. Journal of Economic Approach, 18(64), 1-22.
• Uluç, A., & Acar, E. Ö. (2008). Financial Dollarization and Financial Fragility: The Experience of Developing Countries, The 25Th Symposium on Money, Banking and Finance, Luxembourg.
• Ulusoy, A., & Küçükkale, Y. (1996). Türkiye’de Dış Borçların İktisadi Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerine Etkisi, Gazi University Journal of Economic Approach, 7(21), 13-25.
• Vieira, F. A. C., Holland, M., & Resende, M. F. (2012). Financial Dollarization and Systemic Risks: New Empirical Evidence. Journal of International Money and Finance, 31, 1695-1714.
• Yılmaz, G. (2005). Financial Dollarization, (De)Dollarization and The Turkish Experience. Discussion Paper, Turkish Economic Association, 6, 1-20.
• Yılmaz, M., & Uysal, D. (2019). Türkiye’de Dolarizasyon ve Enflasyon İlişkisi. Journal of Economics, Administrative and Political Studies, 4(10), 286-306.
• Yinusa, O. D. (2008). Between Dollarization and Exchange Rate Volatility: Nigeria's Portfolio Diversification Option. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(5), 811-826.
• Yinusa, O. D. (2009). Macroeconomic Fluctuations and Deposit Dollarization In Sub-Saharan Africa: Evidence From Panel Data, MPRA Paper No.16259.
• Zeybek, H. (2014). Dolarizasyon ve Finansman Maliyeti. Journal of Business and Economic Studies, 2(2), 44-61.