BÖLGESEL DÜZEYDE TEKNOLOJİNİN İSTİHDAM ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2020, , 412 - 430, 30.07.2020

Orkun Çelik

https://doi.org/10.14783/maruoneri.771657

Abstract

Dünya genelinde teknoloji hızla gelişmektedir. Teknolojinin istihdam yaratıp yaratmadığıysa literatürde sıklıkla tartışılmaktadır. Bu konuyla ilgili iki farklı görüş vardır. İlki, teknolojinin yeni iş alanları yarattığını iddia eden emek yanlı görüştür. İkinci görüş ise, teknolojinin emek yerine sermayeyi ikame ettiğini ileri süren emek tasarufu görüşüdür. Bu çalışma, Türkiye için bölgesel düzeyde teknolojinin istihdam üzerindeki etkisini incelemektedir. Veri seti, Düzey 1 kapsamındaki 12 bölge için 2010-2017 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Dinamik sistem GMM tahmin yönteminden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, kadın çalışanların istihdamı aksine, araştırma ve geliştirme harcamaları ile genel istihdam, erkek istihdamı ve yüksek öğrenim mezunlu istihdam arasında anlamlı bir ilişki bulunmaktadır. Bununla birlikte, bu ilişki ters-U şeklinde olup, yüksek öğrenim mezunlu istihdamda daha belirgindir.

Keywords

Teknoloji, Yenilik, İstihdam, İşsizlik, Bölgesel Emek Piyasası

THE IMPACT OF TECHNOLOGY ON EMPLOYMENT AT REGIONAL LEVEL: THE CASE OF TURKEY

Abstract

Technology has rapidly improved across the world. It has frequently been discussed whether technology creates employment in the literature. There are two different views on this issue. The first is the labor-friendly view that alleges technological innovation creates new job-area. The second is the labor-saving view that asserts technology substitutes capital to labor. This paper analyzes the impact of technology on employment at regional level for Turkey. The dataset covers over the period 2010-2017 for 12 regions at NUTS-I level. According to the results of the system GMM estimation, there is a remarkable nexus between R&D expenditure and overall, man employment, employment of higher education graduates, unlike woman employment. However, the nexus is the inversed U-shape and is clearer in employment of higher education graduates.

Keywords

Technology, Innovation, Employment, Unemployment, Regional Labor Market

References

• Acs, Z.J., Fitzroy, F.R., & Smith, I. (1999). High technology employment, wages and university R&D spillovers: Evidence from US cities. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 8(1-2), 57-78. https://doi.org/10.1080/104.385.99900000004.
• Acs, Z.J., FitzRoy, F.R., & Smith, I. (2002). High-technology employment and R&D in cities: heterogeneity vs specialization. The Annals of Regional Science, 36(3), 373-386. https://doi.org/10.1007/s001.680.200096.
• Afcha, S., & García-Quevedo, J. (2016). The impact of R&D subsidies on R&D employment composition. Industrial and Corporate Change, 25(6), 955-975. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dtw008.
• Agovino, M., Aldieri, L., Garofalo, A., & Vinci, C.P. (2018). R&D spillovers and employment: Evidence from European patent data. Empirica, 45(2), 247-260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10663.016.9359-x.
• Aksoy, T. (2009). Technology and demand for skilled labor in Turkish private manufacturing industries. Panoeconomicus, 56(2), 261-279.http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/PAN0902261A.
• Aldieri, L., Garofalo, A., & Vinci, C.P. (2015). R&D spillovers and employment: A micro-econometric analysis. Munich Personal RePEc Archive No. 67269, Germany.
• Ansal, H.K., & Cetindamar Karaomerlioglu, D. (1999). New technologies and employment: industry and firm level evidence from Turkey. New Technology, Work and Employment, 14(2), 82-99. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-005X.00055.
• Araújo, B. C., Bogliacino, F., & Vivarelli, M. (2011). Technology, trade and skills in Brazil: Evidence from micro data. CEPAL Review, 105, 157-171.
• Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968.
• Asaleye, A.J., Okodua, H., Oloni, E.F., & Ohunjobi, J.O. (2017). Trade openness and employment: Evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, 12(4), 1194-1209.
• Assaf, A.A. (2018). Evaluating the impact of trade openness on women’s job opportunities: An analysis for Middle East countries. Global Journal of Economic and Business, 4(1), 99-110.
• Aybarç, S., & Selim, S. (2017). Seçilmiş OECD ülkelerinde ar-ge faaliyetlerine yönelik kamu harcamalarının karşılaştırmalı etkinlik analizi. Girisimcilik ve Kalkinma Dergisi, 12(2), 1-15.
• Aydın, E. (2018). Türkiye’de teknolojik ilerleme ile istihdam yapısındaki değişme projeksiyonu: Endüstri 4.0 bağlamında ampirik analiz. Yönetim Bilimleri Dergisi, 16(31), 461-471.
• Barbieri, L., Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2019). R&D, embodied technological change, and employment: Evidence from Italian microdata. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28(1), 203-218. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty001.
• Belgin, Ö., & Avşar, B.A. (2019). Türkiye’de bölgeler ve iller düzeyinde Ar-Ge ve yenilik performansının gri ilişkisel analiz yöntemi ile ölçülmesi. Verimlilik Dergisi, 2, 27-48.
• Blechinger, D., Kleinknecht, A., Licht, G., & Pfeiffer, F. (1998). The impact of innovation on employment in Europe: An analysis using CIS data. ZEW-Dokumentation No. 98-02. Centre for European Economic Research. https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/39115/1/246100702.pdf.
• Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8.
• Bogliacino, F. (2014). Innovation and employment: A firm level analysis with European R&D Scoreboard data. EconomiA, 15(2), 141-154. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2014.04.002.
• Bogliacino, F., & Vivarelli, M. (2012). The job creation effect of R&D expenditures. Australian Economic Papers, 51(2), 96-113. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8454.2012.00425.x.
• Bogliacino, F., Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2012). R&D and employment: An application of the LSDVC estimator using European microdata. Economics Letters, 116(1), 56-59. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. econlet.2012.01.010.
• Bogliacino, F., Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2014). Technology and employment: The job creation effect of business R&D. Rivista Internazionale di Scienze Sociali, 122(3), 239-264.
• Bond, S. R. (2002). Dynamic panel data models: a guide to micro data methods and practice. Portuguese economic journal, 1(2), 141-162. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258.002.0009-9.
• Casacuberta, C., Fachola, G., & Gandelman, N. (2004). The impact of trade liberalization on employment, capital, and productivity dynamics: evidence from the Uruguayan manufacturing sector. The Journal of Policy Reform, 7(4), 225-248. https://doi.org/10.1080/138.412.8042000285200.
• Cirera, X., & Sabetti, L. (2016). The effects of innovation on employment in developing countries: Evidence from enterprise surveys. Policy Research Working Paper No. 7775, The World Bank. https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-7775.
• Çetin, M., & Işık, H. (2014). Türkiye ve Avrupa Birliği ekonomilerinde yenilikler ve Ar-Ge’nin teşviki: Karşılaştırmalı bir değerlendirme. Maliye Dergisi, 166(1), 75-94.
• Coad, A., & Rao, R. (2007). The employment effects of innovations in high-tech industries. Papers on economics and evolution, No. 0705, Max-Planck-Inst. für Ökonomik, Jena. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/31811.
• Conte, A., & Vivarelli, M. (2011). Imported skill‐biased technological change in developing countries. The Developing Economies, 49(1), 36-65. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1746-1049.2010.00121.x.
• Crespi, G., Tacsir, E., & Pereira, M. (2019). Effects of innovation on employment in Latin America. Industrial and Corporate Change, 28(1), 139-159. https://doi.org/10.1093/icc/dty062.
• Demir, A.Z., & Alpaslan, F. (2016). Ar-ge ve yeniliğin finansal performans ve istihdam üzerine etkileri. Journal of International Social Research, 9(47), 777-785.
• Ebrahim, Z. & Darius, R. (2017). Boosting employment through innovation. The Commonwealth Discussion Note FMM 17(3), https://thecommonwealth.org/sites/default/files/inline/FMM%2817%293%20-%20CFMM_Boosting%20employment%20through%20innovation.pdf
• Edwards, L. (2004). A firm level analysis of trade, technology and employment in South Africa. Journal of International Development, 16(1), 45-61. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.1062.
• Erdil, E., & Ertekin, Ş. (2017). Industry 4.0 and Turkish national innovation system: Challenges and prospects. Industry 4.0, 2(4), 193-196.
• Feldmann, H. (2013). Technological unemployment in industrial countries. Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 23(5), 1099-1126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00191.013.0308-6.
• Jenkins, R. (2008). Trade, technology and employment in South Africa. The Journal of Development Studies, 44(1), 60-79. https://doi.org/10.1080/002.203.80701722308.
• Karabulut, K., & Shahinpour, A. (2017). Bilişim ve iletişim teknolojilerinin işsizlik üzerindeki etkisi: İran ekonomisi üzerine bir uygulama. Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(16),243-257.
• Kılıçaslan, Y., & Töngür, Ü. (2019). ICT and employment generation: evidence from Turkish manufacturing. Applied Economics Letters, 26(13), 1053-1057. https://doi.org/10.1080/13504.851.2018.1529391.
• Lachenmaier, S., & Rottmann, H. (2011). Effects of innovation on employment: A dynamic panel analysis. International journal of industrial organization, 29(2), 210-220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijindorg.2010.05.004.
• Lehmann, J. P. (2011). Turkey’s 2023 economic goal in global perspective. Center for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies-Edam, Tartışma Kağıtları Serisi, Haziran. http://edam.org.tr/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Lehmann-June-2011.pdf.
• Lenger, A. (2016). The inter-industry employment effects of technological change. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 46(2-3), 235-248. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11123.016.0485-z.
• Lundin, N., Sjöholm, F., Ping, H., & Qian, J. (2007). Technology development and job creation in China (No.697). IFN Working Paper. https://www.econstor.eu/handle/10419/81255.
• Lyons, D., & Luker Jr, B. (1996). Employment in R&D-intensive high-tech industries in Texas. Monthly Labor Review, 119(11), 15-25.
• Machin, S., & Van Reenen, J. (1998). Technology and changes in skill structure: Evidence from seven OECD countries. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 113(4), 1215-1244. https://doi.org/10.1162/003.355.398555883.
• Mark, J. A. (1987). Technological change and employment: some results from BLS research. Monthly Labor Review, 110(4), 26-29.
• Matuzeviciute, K., Butkus, M., & Karaliute, A. (2017). Do technological innovations affect unemployment? Some empirical evidence from European countries. Economies, 5(48), 1-19. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies5040048.
• Meschi, E., Taymaz, E., & Vivarelli, M. (2011). Trade, technology and skills: Evidence from Turkish microdata. Labour Economics, 18(1), 60-70. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.labeco.2011.07.001.
• Meschi, E., Taymaz, E., & Vivarelli, M. (2016). Globalization, technological change and labor demand: A firm-level analysis for Turkey. Review of World Economics, 152(4), 655-680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10290.016.0256-y.
• Mitra, A., & Jha, A.K. (2016). Innovation and employment: A firm level study of Indian industries. Siddharthan, N.S., & Narayanan K. (Eds), Technology: Corporate and Social Dimensions. (pp. 113-140). Singapore: Springer.
• NEDDS. New electronic data delivery system. Ankara: CBRT, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
• Nübler, I. (2016). New technologies: A jobless future or golden age of job creation. International Labour Office Research Department Working Paper, https://iccia.com/sites/default/files/library/files/wcms_544189. pdf.
• OECD (2018). Economic surveys: Turkey. http://www.oecd.org/economy/surveys/Turkey-2018-OECDeconomic-survey-overview.pdf.
• Okumu, I. M., Bbaale, E., & Guloba, M. M. (2019). Innovation and employment growth: Evidence from manufacturing firms in Africa. Journal of Innovation and Entrepreneurship, 8(7), 1-27. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13731.019.0102-2.
• Özcan, R. (2019). The rise of robots! Effects on employment and income. Öneri Dergisi, 14(51), 1-17. doi:10.14783/maruoneri.vi.522005.
• Özçelik, E., & Taymaz, E. (2008). R&D support programs in developing countries: The Turkish experience. Research Policy, 37(2), 258-275. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2007.11.001.
• Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2004). Technological change and employment: Some micro evidence from Italy. Applied Economics Letters, 11(6), 373-376. https://doi.org/10.1080/135.048.5042000228222.
• Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2017). Is R&D good for employment? Microeconometric evidence from the EU. IZA Discussion Paper No. 10581. http://ftp.iza.org/dp10581.pdf.
• Piva, M., & Vivarelli, M. (2018). Technological change and employment: Is Europe ready for the challenge?.Eurasian Business Review, 8(1), 13-32. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40821.017.0100-x.
• Roodman, D. (2009). How to do xtabond2: An introduction to difference and system GMM in Stata. The stata journal, 9(1), 86-136. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X090.090.0106.
• Ruane, F., & Kearns, A. (1997). “To R&D or not to R&D, that is the question”: A firm level study of employment growth in the Irish manufacturing sector, 1986-95. Trinity Economic Papers. https://www.tcd.ie/Economics/TEP/1997/1997%20Policy%20Papers/975p.pdf.
• Sumer, B. (2018). Impact of industry 4.0 on occupations and employment in Turkey. European Scientific Journal, 14(10), 1-17. doi: 10.19044/esj.2018.v14n10p1.
• Tamayo, M. P., & Huergo, E. (2016). The effect of R&D services offshoring on skilled employment: Firm evidence. The World Economy, 39(9), 1414-1433. https://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12336.
• Taymaz, E. (1998). Türkiye imalat sanayiinde teknolojik değişme ve istihdam. Bulutay, T. (Ed). Teknoloji ve İstihdam. (pp. 180-223). Ankara: DİE.
• TURKSTAT. http://www.tuik.gov.tr/Start.do.
• Üçdoğruk, Y. (2006). Employment impact of product and process innovations in Turkey. Ege Akademik Bakış Dergisi, 6(1), 87-99.
• Van Reenen, J. (1997). Employment and technological innovation: evidence from UK manufacturing firms.Journal of labor economics, 15(2), 255-284. https://doi.org/10.1086/209833.
• Van Roy, V., Vértesy, D., & Vivarelli, M. (2018). Technology and employment: Mass unemployment or jobcreation? Empirical evidence from European patenting firms. Research Policy, 47(9), 1762-1776. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2018.06.008.
• Vivarelli, M. (2014). Innovation, employment and skills in advanced and developing countries: A surveyof economic literature. Journal of Economic Issues, 48(1), 123-154. https://doi.org/10.2753/JEI0021.362.4480106.
• Vivarelli, M. (2015). Innovation and employment. IZA World of Labor, 154(1), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.15185/izawol.154.
• Voyvoda, E., & Yeldan, E. (2015). An applied endogenous growth model with human and knowledge capital accumulation for the Turkish economy. Middle East Development Journal, 7(2), 195-225.
• WDI (2019). World development indicators. World Bank, Washington, DC. https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators.