ANALYSIS OF CLIMATIC TRENDS IN EVAPORATION FOR CANAKKALE (TURKEY)

Year 2017, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 69 - 82, 29.12.2017

Semih Kale

https://doi.org/10.23884/mejs.2017.3.2.01

Cited By: 11

Abstract

In this study, temporal changes and trends in the series of
annual, seasonal, and monthly evaporation of Çanakkale station of Turkish State
Meteorological Service were analyzed. Time series of evaporation data set has
been organized as climatological seasons that spring (March, April, May),
summer (June, July, August), autumn (September, October, November), and winter
(December, January, February). Non-parametric tests and Box-Jenkins method were
used to determine climatic trends. Pettitt change-point analysis was applied to
determine the change point of evaporation. Trend analysis results showed that a
statistically significant increasing trend occurred in evaporation. Mean annual
evaporation is estimated to increase 1.4498 mm per year and it is anticipated
to reach 215.3356 mm in 2022. Furthermore, mean seasonal evaporation are
estimated to increase 1.2251 mm, 1.6485 mm, and 0.4117 mm per year for spring,
summer, and autumn, respectively. Therefore, Çanakkale is thought to be affected
by global warming and climate change and this effect will continue. Evaporation
should be continuously measured and monitoring program should be established to
allow sustainable use and management of water resources. Global or regional
climate change scenarios and projections must be considered in order to
moderate the possible effects of climate change and global warming on
Çanakkale.

Keywords

Climate change, Evaporation, Trend analysis, Çanakkale

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