The Relationship of Banks’ Profitability and Financial Soundness Indicators: Granger Causality Analysis in Turkey
Year 2023,
Issue: 119, 61 - 76, 03.04.2023
Sabrı Burak Arzova
,
Bertaç Şakir Şahin
Abstract
This study investigates the effect of financial soundness variables on bank performance in Turkey. In the study, banking data and inflation at the macroeconomic level for the period 2000-2019 are used in two models. In the research model, return on assets and return on equity are included in the research model as variables representing bank performance. Capital adequacy ratio and non-performing loans are the financial soundness variables in the model. According to Granger causality analysis, there is a bidirectional causality relationship between return on assets and capital adequacy ratio. Similar relationship exists between inflation and non performing loans
References
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- Albulescu, C. T. (2015). Banks’ profitability and financial soundness indicators: A macro-level investigation in emerging countries. Procedia economics and finance, 23, 203-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00551-1.
- Albulescu, C. T. (2015). Banks’ profitability and financial soundness indicators: A macro-level investigation in emerging countries. Procedia economics and finance, 23, 203-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00551-1
- Andrieș, A. M. (2009). What Role Have Banks in Financial Crises?. Review of Economic and Business Studies (REBS), 3, 149-159.
- Aydın, Y. (2019). Türk bankacılık sektöründe karlılığı etkileyen faktörlerin panel veri analizi ile incelenmesi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1), 181-189.
- Babihuga, R. (2007). Macroeconomic and financial soundness indicators: An empirical investigation. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2007/115/article-A001-en.xml (03.06.2022).
- Bhattarai, Y. R. (2016). Effect of non-performing loan on the profitability of commercial banks in Nepal. Prestige International Journal of Management and Research, 10(2), 1-9.
- Chihi, S., & Khalil, A. (2020). Do board characteristics affect the financial soundness of Islamic banks. African Scientific Journal, 3(2), 96-113. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5532612
- DeGregorio, J. (2010). Monetary policy and financial stability: An emerging markets perspective. International Finance, 13(1), 141- 166.
- Demirel, B. L., Koçyiğit, S. Ç., & Kevser, M. (2021). Makroekonomik değişkenler ve içsel faktörler ile bankaların finansal performansı arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için ampirik bir araştırma. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(2), 598-611.
- Doan, T., & Bui, T. (2021). How does liquidity influence bank profitability? A panel data approach. Accounting, 7(1), 59-64.
- Doğan, M. (2013). Katılım ve geleneksel bankaların finansal performanslarının karşılaştırılması: Türkiye örneği. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (58), 175-188.
- Doumpos, M., Gaganis, C., & Pasiouras, F. (2015). Central bank independence, financial supervision structure and bank soundness: An empirical analysis around the crisis. Journal of Banking & Finance, 61, 69-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.04.017
- Duasa, J., (2007). Determinants of Malaysian trade balance: An ARDL bound testing approach. Global Economic Review, 36(1), 89-102.
- Dunbar, K. (2022). Impact of the COVID-19 event on US banks’ financial soundness. Research in International Business and Finance, 59, 101520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101520
- Dünya Bankası. (2022) Databank. https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx (23.07.2022).
- Eyüboğlu, K., & Eyüboğlu, S. (2018). Bankacılık Sektöründe Rekabet ile Mali Sağlamlık Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler için Panel ARDL Modeli. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 13(3), 219-234.
- Gaies, B., & Jahmane, A. (2022). Corporate Social Responsibility, Financial Globalization and Bank Soundness in Europe–Novel Evidence from a GMM Panel VAR Approach. Finance Research Letters, 102772. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102772
- Gül, S., & Bektaş, S. (2022). Türkiye'de Faaliyet Gösteren Konvansiyonel Bankaların Finansal İstikrar Performanslarının Finansal Sağlamlık Göstergeleri İle Değerlendirilmesi: Entropi Ve Aras Yöntemleri İle Analizi. Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute/Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (49), 553-572.
- Güngör, B., & Dilmaç, M. (2020). Finansal kriz ortamlarında sermaye yapısının bankaların finansal performanslarına etkileri. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (85), 153-172.
- Igbinosa, S. O., & Omoregie, L. (2021). Macroeconomic Aggregates And Financial Soundness Of American Banks. European Journal of Accounting, Finance and Investment, 7(12), 46-61. https://cirdjournal.com/index.php/ejafi/article/view/518
- IMF (2022) Finansal Sağlamlık Değişkenleri.https://data.imf.org/?sk=51B096FA-2CD2-40C2-8D09-0699CC1764DA (23.07.2022).
- IMF. (2006) Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fsi/guide/2006/pdf/fsiFT.pdf (02.06.2022).
- Karaarslan, E. (2022). Bankaların Potansiyel Kripto Varlık Riskleri ve Basel Komitesi'nin İhtiyati Yaklaşımının Değerlendirilmesi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (47), 245-264.
- Karadağ, M. M. (2021). BİST’te İşlem Gören Mevduat Bankalarının IMF Finansal Sağlamlık Göstergeleri Açısından Topsis ve Entropi Yöntemleri ile Analizi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (116), 119-142.
- Kirimi, P. N., Kariuki, S. N., & Ocharo, K. N. (2019). Mediation effect of macro-economic factors on the relationship between banks’ financial soundness and financial performance. International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 9(5), 99-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.5923/j.ijfa.20200905.01
- Kirimi, P. N., Kariuki, S. N., & Ocharo, K. N. (2020). Mediation effect of macro-economic factors on the relationship between banks’ financial soundness and financial performance. International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 9(5), 99-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.5923/j.ijfa.20200905.01.
- Klein, N. (2013). Non-performing loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance. IMF Working Paper, WP/13/72.
- Koç, Y. D., & Karahan, F. (2017). Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Finansal Sağlamlığın Belirleyicileri. International Journal Of Academic Value Studies, 3(15), 148-153.
- Lee, C. C., Yang, S. J., & Chang, C. H. (2014). Non-interest income, profitability, and risk in banking industry: A cross-country analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 48-67.
- Madugu, A. H., Ibrahim, M., & Amoah, J. O. (2020). Differential effects of credit risk and capital adequacy ratio on profitability of the domestic banking sector in Ghana. Transnational Corporations Review, 12(1), 37-52.
Mendoza, R. R., & Rivera, J. P. R. (2017). The effect of credit risk and capital adequacy on the profitability of rural banks in the Philippines. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 64(1), 83-96
- Navajas, M. C., & Thegeya, A. (2013). Financial soundness indicators and banking crises. International Money Funds. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/263/article-A001-en.xml (02.06.2022).
- Ozili, P. K. (2017). Bank profitability and capital regulation: Evidence from listed and non-listed banks in Africa. Journal of African Business, 18(2), 143-168. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2017.1247329
- Rahman, Z. (2017), “Financial soundness evaluation of selected commercial banks in Bangladesh: an application of bankometer model”, Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 8(2), 63-70.
- Rahman, Z. (2017), “Financial soundness evaluation of selected commercial banks in Bangladesh: an application of bankometer model”, Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 8(2), 63-70.
- Salina, A. P., Zhang, X., & Hassan, O. A. (2020). An assessment of the financial soundness of the Kazakh banks. Asian journal of accounting research. 6(1), 23-37. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJAR-03-2019-0022.
- Sundararajan, V., C. Enoch, A. San José, P. Hilbers, R. Krueger, M. Moretti, and G. Slack, 2002, “Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices.” IMF Occasional Paper No. 212, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
- Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995), Statistical inference in vector auto-regressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225‑250.
- Wen, S. Y., & Yu, J. (2013). Banking stability, market structure and financial system in emerging countries. Journal of applied finance and Banking, 3(3), 1- 13.
Bankaların Finansal Karlılık Oranlarıyla Finansal Sağlamlık Göstergeleri İlişkisi: Türkiye’de Granger Nedensellik Analizi
Year 2023,
Issue: 119, 61 - 76, 03.04.2023
Sabrı Burak Arzova
,
Bertaç Şakir Şahin
Abstract
Bu çalışma, Türkiye’de finansal sağlamlık değişkenlerinin banka performansı üzerindeki etkisini araştırmaktadır. Çalışmada iki modelde 2000-2019 dönemine ait makroekonomik düzeydeki bankacılık verileri ve enflasyon kullanılmıştır. Araştırma modelinde aktif karlılığı ve özsermaye karlılığı banka performansını temsil eden değişkenler olarak yer almıştır. Sermaye yeterliliği oranı ve sorunlu krediler modelde yer alan finansal sağlamlık değişkenleridir. Granger nedensellik analizi sonuçlarına göre aktif karlılığı ile sermaye yeterliliği oranı arasında karşılıklı bir nedensellik ilişkisi mevcuttur. Benzer bir ilişki enflasyon ile ve sorunlu krediler arasında bulunmaktadır.
References
- Akgüneş, A. O. (2021). Finansal Risklerin Banka Karlılığı Üzerine Etkisi: Bıst Banka Endeksi Üzerine Bir Uygulama. Muhasebe Bilim Dünyası Dergisi, 23(3), 556-576.
- Albulescu, C. T. (2015). Banks’ profitability and financial soundness indicators: A macro-level investigation in emerging countries. Procedia economics and finance, 23, 203-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00551-1.
- Albulescu, C. T. (2015). Banks’ profitability and financial soundness indicators: A macro-level investigation in emerging countries. Procedia economics and finance, 23, 203-209. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00551-1
- Andrieș, A. M. (2009). What Role Have Banks in Financial Crises?. Review of Economic and Business Studies (REBS), 3, 149-159.
- Aydın, Y. (2019). Türk bankacılık sektöründe karlılığı etkileyen faktörlerin panel veri analizi ile incelenmesi. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(1), 181-189.
- Babihuga, R. (2007). Macroeconomic and financial soundness indicators: An empirical investigation. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2007/115/article-A001-en.xml (03.06.2022).
- Bhattarai, Y. R. (2016). Effect of non-performing loan on the profitability of commercial banks in Nepal. Prestige International Journal of Management and Research, 10(2), 1-9.
- Chihi, S., & Khalil, A. (2020). Do board characteristics affect the financial soundness of Islamic banks. African Scientific Journal, 3(2), 96-113. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5532612
- DeGregorio, J. (2010). Monetary policy and financial stability: An emerging markets perspective. International Finance, 13(1), 141- 166.
- Demirel, B. L., Koçyiğit, S. Ç., & Kevser, M. (2021). Makroekonomik değişkenler ve içsel faktörler ile bankaların finansal performansı arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye için ampirik bir araştırma. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 14(2), 598-611.
- Doan, T., & Bui, T. (2021). How does liquidity influence bank profitability? A panel data approach. Accounting, 7(1), 59-64.
- Doğan, M. (2013). Katılım ve geleneksel bankaların finansal performanslarının karşılaştırılması: Türkiye örneği. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (58), 175-188.
- Doumpos, M., Gaganis, C., & Pasiouras, F. (2015). Central bank independence, financial supervision structure and bank soundness: An empirical analysis around the crisis. Journal of Banking & Finance, 61, 69-83. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.04.017
- Duasa, J., (2007). Determinants of Malaysian trade balance: An ARDL bound testing approach. Global Economic Review, 36(1), 89-102.
- Dunbar, K. (2022). Impact of the COVID-19 event on US banks’ financial soundness. Research in International Business and Finance, 59, 101520. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101520
- Dünya Bankası. (2022) Databank. https://databank.worldbank.org/home.aspx (23.07.2022).
- Eyüboğlu, K., & Eyüboğlu, S. (2018). Bankacılık Sektöründe Rekabet ile Mali Sağlamlık Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler için Panel ARDL Modeli. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 13(3), 219-234.
- Gaies, B., & Jahmane, A. (2022). Corporate Social Responsibility, Financial Globalization and Bank Soundness in Europe–Novel Evidence from a GMM Panel VAR Approach. Finance Research Letters, 102772. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2022.102772
- Gül, S., & Bektaş, S. (2022). Türkiye'de Faaliyet Gösteren Konvansiyonel Bankaların Finansal İstikrar Performanslarının Finansal Sağlamlık Göstergeleri İle Değerlendirilmesi: Entropi Ve Aras Yöntemleri İle Analizi. Pamukkale University Journal of Social Sciences Institute/Pamukkale Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (49), 553-572.
- Güngör, B., & Dilmaç, M. (2020). Finansal kriz ortamlarında sermaye yapısının bankaların finansal performanslarına etkileri. Muhasebe ve Finansman Dergisi, (85), 153-172.
- Igbinosa, S. O., & Omoregie, L. (2021). Macroeconomic Aggregates And Financial Soundness Of American Banks. European Journal of Accounting, Finance and Investment, 7(12), 46-61. https://cirdjournal.com/index.php/ejafi/article/view/518
- IMF (2022) Finansal Sağlamlık Değişkenleri.https://data.imf.org/?sk=51B096FA-2CD2-40C2-8D09-0699CC1764DA (23.07.2022).
- IMF. (2006) Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide. https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fsi/guide/2006/pdf/fsiFT.pdf (02.06.2022).
- Karaarslan, E. (2022). Bankaların Potansiyel Kripto Varlık Riskleri ve Basel Komitesi'nin İhtiyati Yaklaşımının Değerlendirilmesi. Selçuk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, (47), 245-264.
- Karadağ, M. M. (2021). BİST’te İşlem Gören Mevduat Bankalarının IMF Finansal Sağlamlık Göstergeleri Açısından Topsis ve Entropi Yöntemleri ile Analizi. Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, (116), 119-142.
- Kirimi, P. N., Kariuki, S. N., & Ocharo, K. N. (2019). Mediation effect of macro-economic factors on the relationship between banks’ financial soundness and financial performance. International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 9(5), 99-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.5923/j.ijfa.20200905.01
- Kirimi, P. N., Kariuki, S. N., & Ocharo, K. N. (2020). Mediation effect of macro-economic factors on the relationship between banks’ financial soundness and financial performance. International Journal of Finance and Accounting, 9(5), 99-109. http://dx.doi.org/10.5923/j.ijfa.20200905.01.
- Klein, N. (2013). Non-performing loans in CESEE: Determinants and Impact on Macroeconomic Performance. IMF Working Paper, WP/13/72.
- Koç, Y. D., & Karahan, F. (2017). Türk Bankacılık Sektöründe Finansal Sağlamlığın Belirleyicileri. International Journal Of Academic Value Studies, 3(15), 148-153.
- Lee, C. C., Yang, S. J., & Chang, C. H. (2014). Non-interest income, profitability, and risk in banking industry: A cross-country analysis. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 27, 48-67.
- Madugu, A. H., Ibrahim, M., & Amoah, J. O. (2020). Differential effects of credit risk and capital adequacy ratio on profitability of the domestic banking sector in Ghana. Transnational Corporations Review, 12(1), 37-52.
Mendoza, R. R., & Rivera, J. P. R. (2017). The effect of credit risk and capital adequacy on the profitability of rural banks in the Philippines. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 64(1), 83-96
- Navajas, M. C., & Thegeya, A. (2013). Financial soundness indicators and banking crises. International Money Funds. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2013/263/article-A001-en.xml (02.06.2022).
- Ozili, P. K. (2017). Bank profitability and capital regulation: Evidence from listed and non-listed banks in Africa. Journal of African Business, 18(2), 143-168. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2017.1247329
- Rahman, Z. (2017), “Financial soundness evaluation of selected commercial banks in Bangladesh: an application of bankometer model”, Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 8(2), 63-70.
- Rahman, Z. (2017), “Financial soundness evaluation of selected commercial banks in Bangladesh: an application of bankometer model”, Research Journal of Finance and Accounting, 8(2), 63-70.
- Salina, A. P., Zhang, X., & Hassan, O. A. (2020). An assessment of the financial soundness of the Kazakh banks. Asian journal of accounting research. 6(1), 23-37. https://doi.org/10.1108/AJAR-03-2019-0022.
- Sundararajan, V., C. Enoch, A. San José, P. Hilbers, R. Krueger, M. Moretti, and G. Slack, 2002, “Financial Soundness Indicators: Analytical Aspects and Country Practices.” IMF Occasional Paper No. 212, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
- Toda, H.Y., Yamamoto, T. (1995), Statistical inference in vector auto-regressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of Econometrics, 66, 225‑250.
- Wen, S. Y., & Yu, J. (2013). Banking stability, market structure and financial system in emerging countries. Journal of applied finance and Banking, 3(3), 1- 13.