Tarihsel Süreç ve Öğretiler Bağlamında Çin Dış Politikasının Kuramsallaştırılması

Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 1389 - 1408, 19.04.2021

Kamala Valiyeva , Uğur Yasin Asal

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.874794

Abstract

Çin’in dış politika vizyonunu ve davranışının düşünsel yapısını ve Çin öz algısını derin bir şekilde etkileyen temel unsurlardan biri tarih faktörüdür. Çin’in dış politikası ve küresel yükseliş stratejisi, bir süreklilik içinde var olan istikrar ve değişimin birleşimiyle karakterize edilir. Bu makale, yükselen bir güç olarak ya da Henry Kissinger’ın ifadesiyle, geri dönen bir güç olarak Çin’in dış politika kimliğinin ve davranışının tarihsel geçmiş etkeniyle belirlendiği fikrini doğrulamaya çalışmaktadır. Tarihsel deneyimlerinin gölgesinde gelişerek yükselen bir Çin’in hem iç siyasi söylemi hem de dış politika stratejisi, Çin ulusunun tarihte yaşadığı olay ve deneyimlere referanslar içerir. Tarihe yönelik bu çağrım en çok Xi Jinping’in “Çin ulusunun yeniden canlanmasını” hızlandırması beklenen “Çin Rüyası” konseptinde tezahür etmektedir. Çin’in dış politika yaklaşımlarının evrimini ana hatlarıyla ve retrospektif bir biçimde açıklayan bu makale, Çin dış politikası ve Çin’in küresel yükselişi olgusuna yönelik kuramsal yaklaşımları özetlemektedir. Bu bağlamda makale, uluslararası sistemin mevcut yapısı, işleyişi ve ilkeleriyle ilişkili olarak “revizyonizm” ve “statükoya bağlılık” ikilemine odaklanarak, mevcut teorik yaklaşımları geleneksel ve eklektik kuramsallaştırma olmak üzere iki kategori çerçevesinde ele almaktadır.

Keywords

Çin, Küresel Yükseliş, Tarihsel Süreklilik, Dış Politika

Theorizing Chinese Foreign Policy: Conceptual Tenets in Historical Continuum

Abstract

One of the main determinants that indelibly influence China’s foreign policy vision and behavior, as well as the ideational structure of Chinese self-perception is the factor of history. China’s foreign policy and its strategy of global rise are characterized by a combination of constancy and change in a continuum. This paper attempted to substantiate the idea that as a rising power or as Henry Kissinger put it, a returning power China’s foreign policy identity and behavior are determined by its historical past. China exists and evolves in the shadow of its past experiences. Both the domestic political narrative and the foreign policy strategy of a rising China contain numerous references to the historical experience of the Chinese nation. This appeal to history is most fully projected in Xi Jinping’s “Chinese Dream” concept, the realization of which is supposed to accelerate the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. By outlining the evolution of China’s foreign policy approaches in a retrospective manner this paper summarizes the existing conceptual accounts of Chinese foreign policy and the phenomenon of China’s global rise. In doing so the paper differentiates existing theoretical approaches into two categories of conventional and eclectic theorizing with a specific focus on the dichotomy of “revisionism” and “adherence to the status quo” in relation to the existing structure and principles of the international system.

Keywords

China, Historical Continuum, Global Rise, Foreign Policy

Теоретизация Внешней Политики Китая: Концептуальные Положения в Историческом Континууме

Abstract

Одним из основных детерминантов, определяющих внешнеполитическое видение и поведение Китая, а также идейное строение китайского самовосприятия является фактор истории. Внешняя политика Китая и его стратегия подъема характеризуются совокупностью исторической преемственности и изменений в континууме. В данной статье была предпринята попытка обосновать идею о том, что внешнеполитическая идентичность и поведение Китая, как возвышающейся или по выражению Генри Киссинджера, возвращающейся силы, определяется его историческим прошлым. Как внутриполитический нарратив, так и внешнеполитическая стратегия глобального возвышения Китая, существующего и развивающегося «в тени своего прошлого», содержит множество ссылок на исторический опыт китайской нации, наиболее полно проецированных в концепции председателя КНР Си Цзиньпина «китайской мечты», осуществление которой, как представляется, должно привести к «великому национальному возрождению» страны и нации. В этом контексте традиция установления связи между внешнеполитическим поведением (и целями) Китая и его историей, вновь обрела значимость. Изложив в ретроспективном порядке процесс развития внешнеполитических подходов Китая с периода учреждения КНР вплоть до сегодняшнего дня, статья предприняла попытку резюмировать существующие концептуальные подходы к теоретизации внешней политики и феномена глобального возвышения Китая, акцентируя внимание на дихотомии ревизионизма и приверженности статус-кво в отношении структуры мировой системы и разделяя существующие теоретические разработка на две категории: конвенциональное и эклектичное теоретизирование. Подчеркивается, что глобальное присутствие Китая и его подъем в контексте воздействия на структуру и принципы существующего международного порядка рассматривается в диапазоне восприятий Китая как «угроза» и как «возможность».

Keywords

Внешняя Политика Китая, Исторический Континуум, Глобальное Возвышение

References

• Acharya, A., & Buzan, B. (2017). Why is there no non-western international relations theory? Ten years on. International Relations of the Asia Pacific, 17(3), 1–30.
• Allison, G., Robert D. Blackwill, Ali Wyne (2012). The Grand Master’s Insights on China, the United States, and the World. Cambridge: The MIT Press.
• Allison, G. (2017). Destined to War. Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap? New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt.
• Bekkevold, J. I. & Ross, R. S. (2016). Introduction. China’s New Leadership in Domestic and International Politics. In R. S. Ross & J. I. Bekkevold (Eds.). China in the Era of Xi Jinping. Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges (pp. 21-45). Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
• Bijian, Z. (2005) China’s Peaceful Rise to Great-Power Status. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/2005-09-01/chinas-peaceful-rise-great-power-status
• Bo, Z. (2016). China’s Fifth-Generation Leaders. Characteristics of the New Elite and Pathways to Leadership. In R. S. Ross & J. I. Bekkevold (Eds.). China in the Era of Xi Jinping. Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges (pp. 47-118). Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
• Breslin, S. (2010). China’s emerging global role: dissatisfied responsible great power, Politics, 30 (1), 52–62.
• Brzezinski, Z. (1998). The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books.
• Brzezinski, Z. (2014). Can China avoid the Thucydides trap? New Perspectives Quarterly, 31(2), 31–33.
• Buzan, B. (2001). The English School: An Underexploited Resource in IR. Review of International Studies, 27 (3), 471- 488.
• Buzan, B. (2004). From International to World Society? English School Theory and the Social Structure of Globalization. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Buzan, B. (2010) China in International Society: Is ‘Peaceful Rise’ Possible? The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 3 (1), 5–36
• Buzan B. (2014). The ‘Standard of Civilisation’ as an English School Concept. Millennium, 42 (3), 576-594.
• Buzan, B. (2018). China’s rise in English school perspective. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific. 1-28
• Callahan, W. (2005). How to understand China: the dangers and opportunities of being a rising power. Review of International Studies, 31, 701-714.
• Christensen, T. (2016). The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power, New York: W. W. Norton.
• Danner, L. (2018). China’s Grand Strategy Contradictory Foreign Policy? London: Palgrave Macmillan
• Dian, M. & Menegazzi, S. (Eds.) (2018). New Regional Initiatives in China’s Foreign Policy. The Incoming Pluralism of Global Governance. London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Dunne, T. (1998). Inventing International Society: A History of the English School. Houndmills: Palgrave
• Etzioni A. (2016). How aggressive is China? The Korean Journal of International Studies, 14 (2), 291-307.
• Fallon, T. (2014). China’s pivot to Europe. American Foreign Policy Interests, 36(3), 175-182.
• Fallon, T. (2015). The New Silk Road: Xi Jinping’s Grand Strategy for Eurasia, American Foreign Policy Interests, 37 (3), 140-147.
• Feng Zhu & Peng Lu (2015). Be strong and be good? Continuity and change in China’s international strategy under Xi Jinping. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 1(1), 19–34.
• Fingar, T. (Ed.) (2016). The New Great Game. China and South and Central Asia in the age of Reform. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
• Fairbank, J. K., (1969). China Foreign Policy in Historical Perspective,” Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1969-04-01/chinas-foreign-policy-historical-perspective
• Fairbank, J. K. (Ed.) (1968). The Chinese World Order: Traditional China’s Foreign Relations. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
• Foulon, M. (2015). Neoclassical Realism: Challengers and Bridging Identities. International Studies Review, 17, 635-661.
• Fravel, M. (2010). International Relations Theory and China’s Rise: Assessing China’s Potential for Territorial Expansion. International Studies Review, 12, 505–532. Fukuyama, F. (2016). Reflections on Chinese governance. Journal of Chinese Governance, 1 (3), 379–391.
• Garver, J. W. (2016). China’s Quest: The History of the Foreign Policy of the People’s Republic of China, New York: Oxford University Press.
• Hopf, T., Bentley, A. (Eds.) (2016). Making identity count: building a national identity database. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Hopf, T. (2009). Identity relations and the Sino-Soviet split. In A. R., Herrera & R. McDermott (Eds.). Measuring Identity (pp. 279-315) Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Ikenberry, J. (2008). The Rise of China and the Future of the West: Can the Liberal System Survive? Foreign Affairs, 87 (1), 23-37.
• Jacques, M. (2012). When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. Penguin Books.
• Johnston, A. (2007). Social States: China in International Institutions, 1980-2000. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
• Jones, L. & Zeng, J. (2019). Understanding China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’: beyond ‘grand strategy’ to a state transformation analysis, Third World Quarterly, 40 (8), 1415-1439.
• Katzenstein, P. & Sil, R. (2008). Eclectic Theorizing in the Study and Practice of International Relations. In C. Reus-Smit & D. Snidal (Eds.), The Oxford Handbook of International Relations (pp. 109-130). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
• Kang, D. (2010). East Asia before the West: Five Centuries of Trade and Tribute. New York: Columbia University Press.
• Kang, Y., Lu, S. & E. D. Brown (2008), Chinese Corporate Governance: History and Institutional Framework. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR618.html.
• Kim, S. (2006). Chinese Foreign Policy Faces Globalization Challenges. In A. I. Johnston & R. S., Ross (Eds.) (2006), New Directions in the Study of China’s Foreign Policy (pp. 276-308). California: Stanford University Press.
• Kissinger, H. (2012). On China. New York: Penguin Books.
• Kim, W. & Gates, S. (2015). Power transition theory and the rise of China. International Area Studies Review, 18(3), 219-226.
• Kugler, J. & Organski, A. F. K. (1989). The Power Transition: A Retrospective and Prospective Evaluation. In M. Midlarsky (Ed.), The Handbook of War Studies (pp. 171-194). Boston, MA: Unwin Hyman.
• Kirshner, J. (2010). The tragedy of offensive realism: Classical realism and the rise of China. European Journal of International Relations, 18(1), 53–75.
• Kai, H. & Huiyun, F. (2013), Xi Jinping’s operational code beliefs and China’s foreign policy, The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 6 (3), 209–231.
• Legro, J. (2007). What China Will Want: The Future Intentions of a Rising Power. Perspectives on Politics, 5(3), 515-534.
• Lemke, D. & Lemke, D. (2003) Power Transition Theory and the Rise of China, International Interactions: Empirical and Theoretical Research in International Relations, 29 (4), 269-271.
• Lemke, D. & Werner, S. (1996). Power Parity, Commitment to Change, and War. International Studies Quarterly, 40 (2), 235-260.
• Lew, C. & Leung, P. (Eds.) (2013). Historical Dictionary of the Chinese Civil War. Lanham, Maryland: The Scarecrow Press, Inc.
• Lukin, A. (2020). The Russia–China entente and its future. Int Polit. https://doi.org/10.1057/s41311-020-00251-7
• Mahbubani, K. (2018). Has the West Lost It? A Provocation. Allen Lane.
• Mahbubani, K. (2020). Has China Won? The Chinese Challenge to American Primacy. Public Affairs.
• Mazarr, M., Timothy R. Heath, and Astrid Stuth Cevallos, (2018) China and the International Order. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2423.html
• Mearsheimer, J. (2014) Can China Rise Peacefully? The National Interest. Retrieved fromhttps://nationalinterest.org/commentary/can-china-rise-peacefully-10204
• Mearsheimer, J. (2001) The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. W. W. Norton & Company.
• Mearsheimer, J. (2016). Benign hegemony. International Studies Review, 18 (1), 147– 149.
• Mearsheimer, J. (2018). The great delusion: liberal dreams and international realities. New Haven and London: Yale University Press.
• Mearsheimer, J. (2019). Bound to fail the rise and fall of the liberal international order. International Security, 43 (4), 7–50.
• Miller, T. (2019). China’s Asian Dream: Empire Building Along the New Silk Road. London: Zed Books.
• Nathan, A. (2016). China’s Rise and International Regimes: Does China Seek to Overthrow Global Norms? In R. S. Ross & J. I. Bekkevold (Eds.). China in the Era of Xi Jinping. Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges (pp. 449-525). Washington, DC: Georgetown University Press.
• Nye, J. (2010). The future of American power: dominance and decline in perspective. Foreign Affairs, 89 (6), 2–12.
• Olimat, M. (2010). Playing by the rules? Sino-Middle Eastern relations. In S. Breslin (Ed.) (2010) Handbook of China’s International Relations (pp. 177-187). London & New York: Routledge.
• Organski, A. F. K. (1958). World Politics. New York: Alfred A. Knopf.
• Pan, C. (2014). Rethinking Chinese Power: A Conceptual Corrective to the ‘Power Shift’ Narrative. Asian Perspective, 38 (3), 387-410.
• Pan, C., Kavalski, E. (2018). Theorizing China’s rise in and beyond international relations. International Relations of the Asia-Pacific, 18 (3), 289–311.
• Pan, Z., Chen Z. (2013) Peaceful Rise, Multipolarity, and China’s Foreign Policy Line. In Inoguchi T., Ikenberry G.J. (Eds.) The Troubled Triangle. Asia Today (pp. 63-86). Palgrave Macmillan, New York.
• Peter, F. (2016). Westward ho - The China Dream and “One Belt One Road”: Chinese Foreign Policy Under Xi Jinping. International Affairs, 92 (4), 941–957.
• Peters, M. (2017) The Chinese Dream: Xi Jinping thought on Socialism with Chinese characteristics for a new era, Educational Philosophy and Theory, 49 (14), 1299-1304.
• Pillsbury, M. (2015). The Hundred Year Marathon: China’s Secret Strategy to Replace America as the Global Superpower, New York: Henry Holt & Co.
• Rathbun, B. (2008) A Rose by Any Other Name: Neoclassical Realism as the Logical and Necessary Extension of Structural Realism. Security Studies, 17 (1), 294–321.
• Rolland, N. (2017). China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’: Underwhelming or Game-Changer? The Washington Quarterly, 40 (1), 127-142.
• Rose, G. (1998) Review: Neoclassical Realism and Theories of Foreign Policy. World Politics, 51 (1), 144-172.
• Roett, R. (2010). China’s deepening ties with Latin America: a work in progress. In S. Breslin (Ed.) Handbook of China’s International Relations (pp. 200-208). London and New York: Routledge.
• Suettinger, R. (2004). The Rise and Descent of “Peaceful Rise”. Retrieved from https://www.hoover.org/research/rise-and-descent-peaceful-rise Shambaugh, D. (2005). The Rise of China and Asia’s New Dynamics. In D. Shambaugh, (Ed.) Power Shift. China and Asia’s New Dynamics (pp. 1-20). Berkeley: University of California Press.
• Shambaugh, D. (2014) The Illusion of Chinese Power. Brookings Institution. Retrieved from https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-illusion-of-chinese-power/
• Shambaugh, D. (2013). China Goes Global. The Partial Power. New York: Oxford University Press.
• Shambaugh, D. (2016). China’s future. Cambridge: Polity Press.
• Scobell, A., Edmund J., Cortez, A. Cooper, I., Sale, L., Chad, J. R., Ohlandt, E. (2020). China’s Grand Strategy. Trends, Trajectories, and Long-Term Competition. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California.
• Scobell, A. (2020) Something Old, Something New Continuity and Change in China’s Foreign Policy. RAND Corporation. Retrieved from https://www.rand.org/pubs/testimonies/CTA774-1.html
• Swaine, M. (2016) Chinese Views on Global Governance Since 2008–2009: Not Much New, China Leadership Monitor, Retrieved from https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/02/08/chinese-views-on-global-governance-since-2008-9-not-much-new-pub-62697
• Swaine, M. (2010), Perceptions of an Assertive China. China Leadership Monitor, 32 (1).
• Shifrinson, I. (2018). Rising Titans, Falling Giants. How Great Powers Exploit Power Shifts. Ithaca and London: Cornell University Press.
• Sorensen, C. (2013). Is China Becoming More Aggressive? A Neoclassical Realist Analysis. Asian Perspective, 37 (3), 363-385.
• Shaohua, H. (2006), Revisiting Chinese Pacifism. Asian Affairs, 32(4), 256-278.
• Taliaferro, J. W. (2009). Neoclassical Realism and Resource Extraction: State Building for Future War. In S. Lobell, N. Ripsman, & J. Taliaferro (Eds.) Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy (pp. 464-495). New York: Cambridge University Press.
• Taylor, I. (2010). A challenge to the global liberal order? The growing Chinese relationship with Africa. In S. Breslin (Ed.) Handbook of China’s International Relations (pp. 187-199). London and New York: Routledge
• Torbakov, I. (2015). Managing Imperial Peripheries: Russia and China in Central Asia. In T. Fingar (Ed.) The New Great Game. China and South and South and Central Asia in the age of Reform (pp. 646-729). Stanford: Stanford University Press.
• Vucetic, A., Hopf, T. (2018). The distribution of identity and the future of international order: China’s hegemonic prospects. International Organization, 72 (4), 839–869.
• Yan, X. (2014). From keeping a low profile to striving for achievement, The Chinese Journal of International Politics. 7(2), 153–184.
• Ye, X. (2019). Rediscovering the Transition in China’s National Interest: A Neoclassical Realist Approach. Journal of Current Chinese Affairs, 48(1), 76–105.
• Yilmaz, S. (2015) China’s Foreign Policy and Critical Theory of International Relations. Journal of Chinese Political Science. DOI 10.1007/s11366-015-9357-z
• Wohlforth, W. (1993). The Elusive Balance: Power and Perceptions During the Cold War. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.
• Waever, O. (1996) The Rise and Fall of the Inter-Paradigm Debate. In S. Smith, K. Booth, & M. Zalewski (Eds.), International Theory: Positivism and Beyond (pp149-185). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Wen, J. (2004). Carrying Forward the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence in the Promotion of Peace and Development. Speech by Premier of the State Council of the People’s Republic of China at Rally Commemorating the 50th Anniversary of The Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. Retrieved from http://tr.china-embassy.org/eng/xwdt/t140777.htm
• Xuetongi, Y. (2013). Pre-Qin Philoсрединsophy and China’s Rise Today. In Y. Xuetong (Ed.). Ancient Chinese Thought, Modern Chinese Power (pp. 199-221). Princeton University Press.
• Zhang, D. (2018). The Concept of Community of Common Destiny in China’s Diplomacy: Meaning, Motives and Implications. Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, 5 (2), 196-207.
• Zhang, F. (2009). Rethinking the ‘Tribute System’: Broadening the Conceptual Horizon of Historical East Asian Politics. Chinese Journal of International Politics, 2 (4), 545–574.
• Zhu, Z. (2013). Foreign Policy of the People’s Republic of China. In R. K. Beasley, J. Kaarbo, J. S. Lantis, and M. T. Snarr (Eds.) Foreign Policy in Comparative Perspective Domestic and International Influences on State Behavior (pp. 118-137). Los Angeles: CQ Press.
• Бычкова Т. А. (2014). Страны Азии на пути от традиционного общества к индустриальному (XVII – начало XX в.). [Asian countries on the way from traditional to industrial societies (17 - early 20 century).] Томск: Издательский Дом Томского государственного университета. Грачиков, Е. Н. (2015). Геополитика Китая: эгоцентризм и пространство сетей [China’s geopolitics: egocentrism and the space of networks]. Москва: Издательство «Русайнс».
• Иванов, С. А. (2016). Почему коммунистический режим в Китае пережил 1989 г.? Россия и АТР, 1(1), 49-65.
• Лукьянов, Ф. (May 2020). Химера, Олицетворявшая Глобализацию [Chimera Embodying Globalization] Россия в Глобальной Политике. Retrieved from https://globalaffairs.ru/articles/himera-globalizacziya/