Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları Türkiye’de İşsizliği Düşürmeye Katkı Sağlıyor mu? Doğrusal Olmayan ARDL ve Asimetrik Nedensellik Yaklaşımları

Year 2025, Volume: 14 Issue: 2, 651 - 663, 15.04.2025

Merve Kocaman

https://doi.org/10.33206/mjss.1448680

Abstract

Bu çalışmada doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırım girişi ve işsizlik arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemek amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, Türkiye’ye ait 1988-2020 dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılarak ARDL (gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model), NARDL (doğrusal olmayan gecikmesi dağıtılmış otoregresif model) ve asimetrik nedensellik testleri uygulanmıştır. ARDL modeli değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme olmadığı sonucunu verirken, NARDL modelinde değişkenler arasında eşbütünleşme olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. NARDL modeli bulgularına göre, uzun dönemde doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarındaki artış işsizliği azaltırken, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarındaki azalma işsizliği artırmaktadır. Ayrıca, NARDL bulguları asimetrik nedensellik testi sonuçlarıyla uyumludur. Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarındaki pozitif şoklar, işsizlikteki negatif şokların nedeni olarak görülmektedir. Ayrıca doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarındaki negatif şoklar, işsizlikteki pozitif şokların nedeni olarak tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak, analiz, doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımlarının Türkiye'de işsizlik üzerinde önemli bir etkiye sahip olduğunu açıkça göstermektedir. Doğrudan yabancı yatırım çeken ülkeler sıralamasında Türkiye’nin 29. sırada olduğu göz önünde bulundurulduğunda, daha fazla doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımı çekebilmek için kurala dayalı, teşvik edici ve kararlı politikaların gerekli olduğu anlaşılmaktadır.

Keywords

Doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları, işsizlik, NARDL, asimetrik nedensellik

Does Foreign Direct Investment Contribute to Decrease Unemployment in Türkiye? Nonlinear ARDL and Asymmetric Causality Approaches

Abstract

This study explores the symmetric and asymmetric effects of inward FDI on unemployment by using data from Türkiye from 1988 to 2020. ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag), NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and asymmetric causality test are applied to identify impacts of FDI on unemployment. While ARDL findings show no cointegration relationship, the NARDL findings prove the cointegration relationship between the variables. According to NARDL findings, in the long run, while a rise in FDI decreases unemployment, a reduction in FDI increases unemployment. Also, NARDL findings concur with the asymmetric causality test results. Positive shocks in FDI are seen as the cause of negative shocks in unemployment. Moreover, negative shocks in FDI are seen as the cause of positive shocks in unemployment. As a result, the analysis clearly demonstrates that FDI has a crucial impact on unemployment in Türkiye. Considering that Türkiye ranks 29th in the list of countries attracting foreign direct investment, it is understood that rule-based and incentive policies are necessary in order to attract more amount of FDI.

Keywords

Foreign Direct Investment, Unemployment, NARDL, asymmetric causality

Ethical Statement

During the writing process of the study “Does Foreign Direct Investment Contribute to Decrease Unemployment in Türkiye? Nonlinear ARDL and Asymmetric Causality Approaches” scientific rules, ethical and citation rules were followed. No falsification was made on the collected data and this study was not sent to any other academic publication medium for evaluation.

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