POLİTİK İSTİKRARSIZLIK, BELİRSİZLİK VE MAKROEKONOMİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ (1970-2006)

Year 2011, Volume: 31 Issue: 2, 123 - 144, 17.03.2015

Hakan Demirgil

Abstract

Bu çalışma; GARCH ve EGARCH modellerini kullanarak 1970-2006 yılları
arasında Türkiye’de politik istikrarsızlık, belirsizlik ve makroekonomik göstergelerin
(ekonomik büyüme, enflasyon, döviz kuru) oynaklığı arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektir.
Politik istikrarsızlık göstergeleri olarak altı farklı istikrarsızlık değişkenine (genel
seçimler, yerel seçimler, askeri darbe dönemleri, referandumlar, koalisyonlar, grev)
ait temel bileşenler kullanılmıştır. GARCH ve EGARCH modellerinden elde edilen
bulgulara göre, politik istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerinde negatif ve
enflasyon üzerinde pozitif etkisi olduğu, buna karşın döviz kurları üzerinde etkisinin
çok güçlü olmadığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. 

Keywords

Makroekonomik performans, Politik istikrarsızlık, GARCH ve EGARCH modelleri

POLITICAL INSTABILITY, UNCERTAINTY AND MACROECONOMICS: THE CASE OF TURKEY (1970-2006)

Abstract

This study investigates relationship between political instability,
uncertainty and volatility of macroeconomic outcomes in the context of economic
growth, inflation and exchange rates in Turkey for the period 1970 through 2006
using GARCH and EGARCH models. Political instability indicators has been
defined as principal compenents of six different instability variables (genereal
elections, local elections, coup d'états, referendums, coalition periods and number   strikes per year). According to results, estimated by GARCH and EGARCH
models, political instability have negative impacts on economic growth and positive
affect on ınflation rate, whereas it’s affect on exchange rates is not strong enough.

Keywords

Macreconomic performance, Political instability, GARCH and EGARCH models

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