UNVEILING THE IMPACT OF GEOPOLITICAL RISKS ON TURKISH ECONOMY AND FISCAL DYNAMICS

Year 2024, Volume: 46 Issue: 1, 221 - 232, 27.06.2024

Süleyman Kasal

https://doi.org/10.14780/muiibd.1411164

Abstract

This research aims to examine the impact of geopolitical risks on Türkiye's trade openness, household consumption, investment, government debt, and budget deficit for the quarters 2006:I–2022:IV. There are no empirical studies in the literature that examine the relationship between geopolitical risks and Turkish fiscal policy. The vector autoregressive (VAR) approach is utilized to examine the relationships among the variables. Geopolitical risks contribute to a very serious increase in inflation in Türkiye. The increase in geopolitical risks negatively affects consumption and investment and increases budget deficits and government debt. Additionally, Türkiye's trade volume has also decreased as a result of rising geopolitical risks, according to the VAR model's results. These findings demonstrate how vulnerable the Turkish economy is to geopolitical risks. Succinctly, Türkiye's public finances and economy are negatively impacted by geopolitical risks according to the analysis's findings. As a matter of fact, taking precautionary fiscal policy measures against geopolitical risks is important in eliminating the fiscal and economic losses that may arise. In this respect, this study has the potential to make a new contribution to the fiscal policy literature and to guide fiscal policy makers.

Keywords

Geopolitical risks, fiscal policy, business cycle, vector autoregression (VAR)

Jeopolitik Risklerin Türkiye Ekonomisine ve Mali Dinamiklere Etkisinin Ortaya Çıkarılması

Abstract

Bu araştırma, jeopolitik risklerin Türkiye'nin ticari açıklığı, hane halkı tüketimi, yatırımı, devlet borcu ve bütçe açığı üzerindeki etkisini 2006:I–2022 çeyrekleri için incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Literatürde jeopolitik riskler ile Türk maliye politikası arasındaki ilişkiyi inceleyen ampirik bir çalışma bulunmamaktadır. Değişkenler arasındaki ilişkileri incelemek için vektör otoregresif (VAR) yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Jeopolitik riskler Türkiye'de enflasyonun çok ciddi bir oranda yükselmesine katkıda bulunmaktadır. Jeopolitik risklerin artması tüketimi ve yatırımı olumsuz etkileyerek bütçe açıklarını ve devlet borçlarını artırmaktadır. Ayrıca VAR modeli sonuçlarına göre, artan jeopolitik riskler nedeniyle Türkiye'nin ticaret hacmi de azalmaktadır. Bu bulgular Türkiye ekonomisinin jeopolitik risklere karşı ne kadar kırılgan olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Kısacası analiz bulgularına göre Türkiye'nin kamu maliyesi ve Türk ekonomisi jeopolitik risklerden olumsuz etkilenmektedir. Bu bulgu, Türkiye'de jeopolitik risklerin politika oluşturma süreçlerine dahil edilmesinin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Nitekim jeopolitik risklere karşı ihtiyati maliye politikası tedbirleri alınması ortaya çıkacak mali zararların giderilmesi bakımından önemlidir. Bu yönüyle bu çalışma maliye politikası literatürüne yeni bir katkı yapma ve maliye politikası yapıcılara yol gösterici olması bakımından bir potansiyeline sahiptir.

Keywords

Jeopolitik riskler, maliye politikası, konjonktürel dalgalanma, vektör otoregresyon (VAR)

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