Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme, Finansal Gelişme ve Ticari Açıklık: Genişletilmiş ARDL ile Kanıtlar

Year 2023, Volume: 5 Issue: Özel Sayı, 222 - 236, 17.12.2023

Ali Rauf Karataş , Murat Ergül

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisi 1980 sonrası dönemde, finansal serbestleşme ve dış dünya ile ekonomik entegrasyon sürecine girmiştir. Bu süreçte ithal ikameci sanayileşme stratejisi yerine ihracata dayalı büyüme modeli tercih edilmiş ve finansal liberalizasyona yönelik düzenlemeler yapılmıştır. Bu dönüşüm sürecinden hareket ederek, bu çalışmada, ekonomi literatüründe de geniş çapta tartışılan finansal gelişme ve ticari açıklığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri Türkiye ekonomisi özelinde incelenmiştir. 1990-2021 dönemi verilerinin kullanıldığı çalışmada, değişkenler arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisinin tespit edilmesi amacıyla yakın zamanda geliştirilmiş olan genişletilmiş ARDL yaklaşımı kullanılmıştır. Elde edilen ampirik bulgulara göre uzun dönemde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında istatistiki olarak anlamlı bir ilişki olmadığı, ticari açıklığın ise ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif yönde etkilediği görülmektedir. Kısa dönemde; finansal gelişme ile ekonomik büyüme arasında negatif yönlü ve anlamlı bir ilişki söz konusu iken, ticari açıklığın kısa dönemde ekonomik büyüme üzerinde etkisi yoktur. Neo-Klasik büyüme modelinin geleneksel üretim fonksiyonunda yer alan diğer değişkenlerin (emek, sermaye, teknolojik gelişme) ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi de beklenildiği gibi pozitif ve anlamlıdır. Çalışma, Türkiye’nin ekonomi büyümesinde finansal gelişmenin önemli bir aktör olmadığını, ihracata dayalı büyüme stratejisinin ise ekonomik büyümeye katkı sağladığını göstermiştir. Bu sebeple finansal gelişmeyi içselleştiren ve sürdüren etkili bir ekonomik büyüme stratejisinin oluşturulması gerekmektedir. Ayrıca potansiyel çıktı düzeyine ulaşmada finansal döngünün ve finansal sistem çıktılarının da dikkate alınması politika yapıcılar için önemli olmalıdır.

Keywords

Ekonomik büyüme, Finansal Gelişme, Ticari Açıklık, Genişletilmiş ARDL Yaklaşımı, Finansal Döngü

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