İklim Değişikliğinin İhracat Ürün Çeşitlendirmesi Üzerine Etkileri: OECD Ülkelerinden Kanıtlar

Year 2025, Volume: 20 Issue: 1, 221 - 236

Fatih Kaplan , Ahmet Koluman

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, iklim değişikliğinin ihracat ürün çeşitlendirmesi üzerinde etkisini araştırmaktır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, Ekonomik Kalkınma ve İş Birliği Örgütü (OECD) üyesi 37 ülkeye ait veriler, 1995-2022 dönemi için Kesirli Logit Model ile Moment Kantil Regresyon (MMQR) kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları, yağış miktarı ve ortalama sıcaklıktaki artışların ihracat ürün çeşitlendirmesinden ziyade ihracat ürün yoğunlaşmasına yol açtığını göstermektedir. Diğer yandan ekolojik ayak izindeki artış ise ihracat ürün yoğunlaşmasını azaltmaktadır. Elde edilen bu sonuçlara göre OECD ülkelerinde iklim değişikliği ihracat ürün çeşitlendirmesini olumsuz etkilemekte, bu durumda ülkeler ihracat kompozisyonlarında iklim değişikliğinin etkisini göz önünde bulundurması gerekmektedir.

Keywords

İklim Değişikliği, İhracat Ürün Çeşitlendirmesi, Kesirli Logit Model, OECD

Ethical Statement

Çalışmada ikincil veriler kullanılması nedeniyle etik kurul raporuna ihtiyaç olmamıştır.

Supporting Institution

Tarsus Üniversitesi

Project Number

UBF.23.001

Thanks

Tarsus Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinasyon birimine katkılarından dolayı teşekkür ederiz.

The Effects of Climate Change on Export Product Diversification: Evidence from OECD Countries

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the impact of climate change on export product diversification. For this purpose, data from 37 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) member countries are analyzed using the Fractional Logit Model and Moment Quantile Regression (MMQR) for the period 1995-2022. The results of the analysis show that increases in rainfall and average temperature lead to export product concentration rather than export product diversification. On the other hand, an increase in ecological footprint reduces export product concentration. According to these results, climate change has a negative impact on export product diversification in OECD countries and countries should consider the impact of climate change in their export composition.

Keywords

Climate Change, Export Product Diversification, Fractionalized Logit Model, OECD

Project Number

UBF.23.001

References

• Agosin, M. R., Alvarez, R., & Bravo‐Ortega, C. (2012). Determinants of export diversification around the world: 1962–2000. The World Economy, 35(3), 295-315. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2011.01395.x
• Akinyele, O., & Dada, J. T. (2024). Export diversification and government intervention in Sub-Saharan Africa. Iranian Economic Review, 28(2), 490-513. https://doi.org/10.22059/IER.2022.88677
• Alemu, A. M. (2008). Determinants of vertical and horizontal export diversification: Evidences from sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. Ethiopian Journal of Economics, 17(2), 1-56. https://doi.org/10.4314/eje.v17i2.47311
• Ali, S., Can, M., Shah, M. I., Jiang, J., Ahmed, Z., & Murshed, M. (2022). Exploring the linkage between export diversification and ecological footprint: Evidence from advanced time series estimation techniques. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 29(25), 38395-38409. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-18622-3
• Apergis, N., Can, M., Gozgor, G., & Lau, C. K. M. (2018). Effects of export concentration on CO2 emissions in developed countries: an empirical analysis. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 25, 14106-14116. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-018-1634-x
• Arawomo, D. F., Oyelade, A. O., & Tella, A. T. (2014). Determinants of Export Diversification in Nigeria: Any Special Role for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)?. Journal of Economics And Business Research, 20(2), 21-33.
• Arora, N. K. (2019). Impact of climate change on agriculture production and its sustainable solutions. Environmental Sustainability, 2(2), 95-96. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42398-019-00078-w
• Balogh, J. M., & Mizik, T. (2021). Trade–climate nexus: A systematic review of the literature. Economies, 9(3), 99. https://doi.org/10.3390/economies9030099
• Barrios, S., Ouattara, B., & Strobl, E. (2008). The impact of climatic change on agricultural production: Is it different for Africa?. Food Policy, 33(4), 287-298. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2008.01.003
• Cadot, O., Carrère, C., & Strauss-Kahn, V. (2011). Export diversification: what's behind the hump?. Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(2), 590-605. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00078
• Can, M., & Gozgor, G. (2018). Effects of export product diversification on quality upgrading: an empirical study. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 27(3), 293-313. https://doi.org/10.1080/09638199.2017.1370006
• Can, M., Ahmad, M., & Khan, Z. (2021). The impact of export composition on environment and energy demand: evidence from newly industrialized countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28(25), 33599-33612. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-13084-5
• Can, M., Dogan, B., & Saboori, B. (2020). Does trade matter for environmental degradation in developing countries? New evidence in the context of export product diversification. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 27, 14702-14710. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-08000-2
• Dall'Erba, S., Chen, Z., & Nava, N.J. (2021). US interstate trade will mitigate the negative impact of climate change on crop profit. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 103(5), 1720-1741. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12204 Dallmann, I. (2019). Weather variations and international trade. Environmental and Resource Economics, 72(1), 155-206. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-018-0268-2
• Elhiraika, A. B., & Mbate, M. M. (2014). Assessing the determinants of export diversification in Africa. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 14(1), 147-160. http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/aeid14111.pdf
• Espoir, L. M. (2020). Determinant of export diversification: An empirical analysis in the case of SADC countries. International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science, 9(7), 130-144. https://doi.org/10.20525/ijrbs.v9i7.942
• Fang, J. C., Gozgor, G., Lu, Z., & Wu, W. S. (2019). Effects of the export product quality on carbon dioxide emissions: Evidence from developing economies. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 12181–12193. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-019-04513-7
• Fonchamnyo, D. C., & Akame, A. R. (2017). Determinants of export diversification in Sub-Sahara African region: A fractionalized logit estimation model. Journal of Economics and Finance, 41(2), 330-342. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12197-016-9352-z
• Frankel, J. A., & Rose, A. K. (2005). Is trade good or bad for the environment? Sorting out the causality. Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(1), 85-91. https://doi.org/10.1162/0034653053327577
• Gozgor, G., & Can, M. (2016). Export product diversification and the environmental Kuznets curve: evidence from Turkey. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 23, 21594-21603. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-016-7403-9
• Gözgör, G., & Can, M. (2017). Causal linkages among the product diversification of exports, economic globalization and economic growth. Review of Development Economics, 21(3), 888-908. https://doi.org/10.1111/rode.12301
• Habib-ur-Rahman, M., Ahmad, A., Raza, A., Hasnain, M. U., Alharby, H. F., Alzahrani, Y. M., ... & El Sabagh, A. (2022). Impact of climate change on agricultural production; Issues, challenges, and opportunities in Asia. Frontiers in Plant Science, 13, 925548. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2022.925548
• Hu, G., Can, M., Paramati, S. R., Doğan, B., & Fang, J. (2020). The effect of import product diversification on carbon emissions: New evidence for sustainable economic policies. Economic Analysis and Policy, 65, 198-210. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2020.01.004
• Imbs, J., & Wacziarg, R. (2003). Stages of diversification. American Economic Review, 93(1), 63-86. https://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455160
• International Monetary Fund. (2014). Sustaining long-run growth and macroeconomic stability in lowincome countries – the role of structural transformation and diversification. IMF Policy Paper. https://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2014/030514.pdf
• Iqbal, N., Abbasi, K. R., Shinwari, R., Guangcai, W., Ahmad, M., & Tang, K. (2021). Does exports diversification and environmental innovation achieve carbon neutrality target of OECD economies?. Journal of Environmental Management, 291, 112648. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112648
• Jahanger, A., Zaman, U., Hossain, M. R., & Awan, A. (2023). Articulating CO2 emissions limiting roles of nuclear energy and ICT under the EKC hypothesis: An application of non-parametric MMQR approach. Geoscience Frontiers, 14(5), 101589. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101589
• Jiang, S., Mentel, G., Shahzadi, I., Jebli, M. B., & Iqbal, N. (2022). Renewable energy, trade diversification and environmental footprints: Evidence for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). Renewable Energy, 187, 874-886. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2021.12.134
• Jones, B. F., & Olken, B. A. (2010). Climate shocks and exports. American Economic Review, 100(2), 454-459. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.454
• Karlsson, J. (2021). Temperature and exports: evidence from the United States. Environmental and Resource Economics, 80(2), 311-337. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10640-021-00587-5
• Khan, Z., Murshed, M., Dong, K., & Yang, S. (2021). The roles of export diversification and composite country risks in carbon emissions abatement: evidence from the signatories of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership agreement. Applied Economics, 53(41), 4769-4787. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1907289
• Koenker, R., & Bassett Jr, G. (1978). Regression quantiles. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 33-50. https://doi.org/10.2307/1913643
• Kostakis, I. (2021). The socioeconomic determinants of sustainable residential water consumption in Athens: empirical results from a micro-econometric analysis. Discover Sustainability, 2(1), 37. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-021-00047-6
• Lee, C. C., Yuan, Z., & Ho, S. J. (2022). How does export diversification affect income inequality? International evidence. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 63, 410–420. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2022.06.010
• Leng, C., Wei, S. Y., Al-Abyadh, M. H. A., Halteh, K., Bauetdinov, M., Le, L. T., & Alzoubi, H. M. (2024). An empirical assessment of the effect of natural resources and financial technologies on sustainable development in resource abundant developing countries: Evidence using MMQR estimation. Resources Policy, 89, 104555. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104555
• Li, C., Cong, J., & Yin, L. (2021). Extreme heat and exports: evidence from Chinese exporters. China Economic Review, 66, 101593. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101593
• Li, C., Xiang, X., & Gu, H. (2015). Climate shocks and international trade: Evidence from China. Economics Letters, 135, 55-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2015.07.032
• Li, M., Ahmad, M., Fareed, Z., Hassan, T., & Kirikkaleli, D. (2021). Role of trade openness, export diversification, and renewable electricity output in realizing carbon neutrality dream of China. Journal of Environmental Management, 297, 113419. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113419
• Liu, H., Kim, H., & Choe, J. (2019). Export diversification, CO 2 emissions and EKC: panel data analysis of 125 countries. Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, 3, 361-393. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-018-0099-8
• Liu, H., Kim, H., Liang, S., & Kwon, O. S. (2018). Export diversification and ecological footprint: a comparative study on EKC theory among Korea, Japan, and China. Sustainability, 10(10), 3657. https://doi.org/10.3390/su10103657 Machado, J. A., & Silva, J. S. (2019). Quantiles via moments. Journal of Econometrics, 213(1), 145-173. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconom.2019.04.009
• Mania, E. (2020). Export diversification and CO2 emissions: an augmented environmental Kuznets curve. Journal of International Development, 32(2), 168-185. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3441
• Papke, L. E., & Wooldridge, J. M. (1996). Econometric methods for fractional response variables with an application to 401(k) plan participation rates. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 619-632. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<619::AID-JAE418>3.0.CO;2-1
• Pascasio, M. C., Takahashi, S., & Kotani, K. (2014). Effects of climate shocks to Philippine international trade. Economics & management series. EMS-2014–07.
• Pata, U. K., Shahzad, F., Fareed, Z., & Rehman, M. A. (2022). Revisiting the EKC hypothesis with export diversification and ecological footprint pressure index for India: a RALS-Fourier cointegration test. Frontiers in Environmental Science, 10, 886515. https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2022.886515
• Ratnayake, R., Proksch, M., & Mikic, M. (2011). Climate-smart trade and investment in asia and the pacific-towards a triple-win outcome, United Nations Publications.
• Shahzad, U., Ferraz, D., Doğan, B., & do Nascimento Rebelatto, D. A. (2020). Export product diversification and CO2 emissions: Contextual evidences from developing and developed economies. Journal of Cleaner Production, 276, 124146. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.124146
• Shang, T., Samour, A., Abbas, J., Ali, M., & Tursoy, T. (2024). Impact of financial inclusion, economic growth, natural resource rents, and natural energy use on carbon emissions: the MMQR approach. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 1-31. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-024-04513-9
• Swathi. M., & Sridharan, P. (2022). Determinants of export diversification: Evidence from fractional logit estimation model. Foreign Trade Review, 57(2), 160-177. https://doi.org/10.1177/00157325211072922
• Ul-Haq, J., Visas, H., Can, M., & Khanum, S. (2023). How diversification of products impact emissions in China: a provincial perspective. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(59), 124215-124231. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-31078-3
• UNCTAD. (2023). Handbook of statistics 2023. United Nations Publications.
• Uyar, S. G. K., & Karahan, Z. B. (2020). Genişletilmiş çevresel kuznets eğrisi modelinde içsellik problemi: Panel kantil araç değişken yaklaşımı. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 773-804. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.727984
• Van den Wall Bake, K., Can, M., & Brusselaers, J. (2024). The Impact of Export Concentration on the Ecological Footprint in the European Union. Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10666-024-09984-8
• Waris, U., Mehmood, U., & Tariq, S. (2023). Analyzing the impacts of renewable energy, patents, and trade on carbon emissions—evidence from the novel method of MMQR. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 30(58), 122625-122641. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-30991-x
• Yaşar, E. (2021). İhracat Çeşitlendirmesinin Belirleyicileri: Seçilmiş Ülkeler İçin Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi. Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(4), 1039-1054. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.895060
• Zhang, J., & Li, H. (2023). Will temperature affect the export quality of firms? Evidence from China. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 15(4), 493-514. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJCCSM-05-2022-0066