Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis

Şeref Can Serin; İlter Ünlükaplan

doi:10.17494/ogusbd.1161380

Research Article

Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis

Year 2022, Volume: 23 Issue: 2, 264 - 287, 19.12.2022

Şeref Can Serin , İlter Ünlükaplan

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380

Abstract

An essential part of the ongoing normative debate on how to design the cyclical movements of fiscal policy practices argues that counter-cyclical fiscal policies based on the Keynesian view should be preferred to pro-cyclical practices because of their stabilizing effects. In this context, the empirical analysis of the cyclical behavior of fiscal policy is an area that is up to date, first introduced by Gavin and Perotti (1997). The common opinion of empirical studies is that counter-cyclical practices are applied in developed economies; pro-cycle practices are more common in developing and underdeveloped economies. This study examines the cyclical movements of fiscal policy practices in Turkiye from 1990-2020 with the ARDL method. As a result of the study, findings were obtained that Turkiye's fiscal policy practices have a counter-cyclical structure but lose its fiscal space for a maneuver. The robustness tests also support the findings.

Keywords

Business Cycle, Fiscal Policy, Time Series Analysis

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Maliye Politikası Çevrim Yanlısı Mı Yoksa Çevrim Karşıtı mı? Türkiye için ARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar

Year 2022, Volume: 23 Issue: 2, 264 - 287, 19.12.2022

Şeref Can Serin , İlter Ünlükaplan

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380

Abstract

Maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrimsel hareketlerinin nasıl tasarlanması gerektiği konusunda süregelen normatif tartışmaların önemli bir kısmı, Keynesyen görüş temelli çevrim-karşıtı maliye politikalarının istikrarlandırıcı etkileri nedeniyle çevrim-yanlısı uygulamalara tercih edilmesi gerektiğini savunmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, maliye politikasının çevrimsel davranışlarının ampirik analizi ilk defa Gavin ve Perotti (1997) tarafından ortaya konulmuş, güncelliğini koruyan bir alanıdır. Bu konudaki ampirik çalışmaların ortak kanısı, çevrim-karşıtı uygulamalara gelişmiş ekonomilerde; çevrim yanlısı uygulamalara ise gelişmekte ve az gelişmiş ekonomilerde daha sık rastlanıldığı yönündedir. Bu çalışma Türkiye’de ihtiyari maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrimsel hareketlerini 1990-2020 dönemi için ARDL yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Çalışma sonucunda Türkiye’de maliye politikası uygulamalarının çevrim-karşıtı ancak giderek mali manevra alanını kaybeden bir yapıya sahip olduğuna dair bulgular elde edilmiştir. Yapılan sağlamlık sınamaları da elde edilen bulguları desteklemektedir.

Keywords

İş Çevrimleri, Maliye Politikası, Zaman Serisi Analizi

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Primary Language	English
Journal Section	Articles
Authors	Şeref Can Serin 0000-0001-8575-9128 İlter Ünlükaplan 0000-0002-5420-3642
Publication Date	December 19, 2022
Submission Date	August 12, 2022
Published in Issue	Year 2022 Volume: 23 Issue: 2

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APA	Serin, Ş. C., & Ünlükaplan, İ. (2022). Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 23(2), 264-287. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
AMA	Serin ŞC, Ünlükaplan İ. Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. December 2022;23(2):264-287. doi:10.17494/ogusbd.1161380
Chicago	Serin, Şeref Can, and İlter Ünlükaplan. “Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 23, no. 2 (December 2022): 264-87. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
EndNote	Serin ŞC, Ünlükaplan İ (December 1, 2022) Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 23 2 264–287.
IEEE	Ş. C. Serin and İ. Ünlükaplan, “Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis”, Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 23, no. 2, pp. 264–287, 2022, doi: 10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
ISNAD	Serin, Şeref Can - Ünlükaplan, İlter. “Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi 23/2 (December 2022), 264-287. https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
JAMA	Serin ŞC, Ünlükaplan İ. Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2022;23:264–287.
MLA	Serin, Şeref Can and İlter Ünlükaplan. “Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis”. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, vol. 23, no. 2, 2022, pp. 264-87, doi:10.17494/ogusbd.1161380.
Vancouver	Serin ŞC, Ünlükaplan İ. Is Fiscal Policy in Turkey Pro or Counter-Cyclical? Evidence from the ARDL Analysis. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi. 2022;23(2):264-87.

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