The Impact of the Demographic Transition on the Total Factor Productivity in Türkiye

Year 2023, Volume: 24 Issue: 2, 424 - 439, 10.08.2023

Sevgi Coskun

https://doi.org/10.17494/ogusbd.1294814

Abstract

The demographic transition would affect almost every aspect of life and our surroundings and could lead to significant changes and consequences in the social and economic sub-systems. In addition, it is a vital factor in economics. Therefore, a deep understanding of demographic transitions, characteristics, and dimensions would be helpful due to better managing the consequences and preparing for the future. The aim of this paper is to explore the impact of Türkiye's demographic transition on total factor productivity (TFP) from 1970 to 2021 using a Probit model. The results indicate that factors such as dependency ratio, elderly population ratio, youth population ratio, deaths per 1000 people, life expectancy, population density, gross capital formation per capita, and manufacturing production can increase the likelihood of TFP growth. However, factors such as capital stock, urban population, and births per 1000 people are shown to potentially reduce this likelihood.

Keywords

demographic transition, total factor productivity, probit model

Türkiye’de Demografik Geçişin Toplam Faktör Verimliliğine Etkisi

Abstract

Ölüm ve doğurganlık oranlarının yüksekten düşüğe doğru bir değişimi olan demografik geçiş, hayatın hemen hemen her alanını etkilemekte ve sosyal ve ekonomik alt sistemlerde önemli değişikliklere ve sonuçlara yol açmaktadır. Ayrıca, demografik geçiş ekonomide hayati bir faktöre sahiptir. Bu nedenle, sonuçları daha iyi yönetmek ve geleceğe dair daha iyi hazırlanmak için demografik geçişlerin, özelliklerinin ve boyutlarının derinlemesine anlaşılması önemlidir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye'deki 1970-2021 yılları arasındaki demografik geçişin toplam faktör verimliliği (TFP) üzerindeki etkisini bir Probit modeli kullanarak analiz etmektir. Sonuçlar, bağımlılık oranı, yaşlı nüfus oranı, genç nüfus oranı, 1000 kişi başına düşen ölüm sayısı, yaşam beklentisi, nüfus yoğunluğu, kişi başına brüt sermaye oluşumu ve imalat üretimi gibi faktörlerin TFP büyüme olasılığını artırabileceğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bununla birlikte, sermaye stoku, kentsel nüfus ve 1000 kişi başına düşen doğum sayısı gibi faktörlerin ise bu olasılığı azaltabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Demografik Geçiş, Toplam Faktör Verimliliği, Probit Model

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