Türkiye’nin Ticaret Etkinliği: Stokastik Sınır Çekim Modeli Yaklaşımı

Year 2018, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 29 - 48, 09.02.2018

Memduh Alper Demir , Mustafa Bilik

https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.309214

Cited By: 6

Abstract

Bu
çalışmada, Türkiye’nin dış ticaret potansiyeli stokastik sınır çekim modeli
uygulanarak incelenmektedir. Ayrıca, dış ticaretteki büyümeyi kısıtlayıcı
faktörleri tespit edilmektedir. Çalışma Türkiye’nin 31 dış ticaret ortağının
2003-2014 yılları arası panel verileri kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Çalışmada, dış
ticareti etkileyen; kişi başına gelir, gayri safi yurt içi hasıla, nüfus
yoğunluğu, uzaklık, ticari serbestlik, ortak gümrük gibi temel değişkenler
modellenmiştir.  Dış ticaret açısından
Türkiye’nin ortalama etkinliğinin %60 olduğu ve ülke bazlı olarak %11 ile %96
arasında çıkan etkinlik sonuçlarına varılmıştır. Etkinliği ortalamanın altında
kalan ülkelerdeki nedenler tartışılmış ve çözüm önerileri sunulmuştur.

Keywords

Çekim Modeli, Stokastik Sınır Analizi, Etkinlik, Dış Ticaret, Türkiye

Turkey’s Trade Effıcıency: A Stochastıc Frontıer Gravıty Model Approach

Abstract

In this study,
Turkey’s trade potential is examined by applying the stochastic frontier
gravity model. Furthermore, restrictive factors on trade growth are determined.
This article uses a panel data of Turkey’s thirty-one trade partner countries
from 2003 -2014. Basic variables such as per capita income, gross domestic product,
population density, distance, trade freedom, common customs which are affect the
trade are analyzed in the model. The findings show that Turkey’s trade
average efficiency score is %60 and country-pair specific scores are among
between %11 and %96. Causes discussed for the countries that have below average
efficiency score and finally implications presented.  

Keywords

Gravity Model, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Efficiency, Trade, Turkey

References

• Ahsan, M. R., & Chu, S. N. (2014). “The Potential and Constraints of the Exports of Environmental Goods (EGs): the case of Bangladesh” (No. 2014-05). The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
• Aigner, D., Lovell, C. A. K., & Schmidt, P. (1977). Formulation And estimation Of Stochastic Frontier Production Function Models. Journal of Econometrics, 6(1), 21–37. http://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(77)90052-5
• Anderson, J. E. (1979). A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation. American Economic Review, 69(1), 106–116. http://doi.org/10.1126/science.151.3712.867-a
• Anderson, J. E., & Van Wincoop, E. (2003). Gravity with gravitas: A solution to the border puzzle. American Economic Review, 93(1), 170–192. http://doi.org/10.1257/000282803321455214
• Armington, P. S. (1969). “A theory of demand for products distinguished by place of production”. Staff Papers, 16(1), 159-178.
• Armstrong, S. P., Drysdale, P., & Kalirajan, K. P. (2008). Asian Trade Structures and Trade Potential: An Initial Analysis of South and East Asian Trade. SSRN Electronic Journal, 3–4. http://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1767686
• Armstrong, S. P., & Drysdale, P. (2009). The influence of economics and politics on the structure of world trade and investment flows. East Asia Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper, (61).
• Armstrong, S. P. (2015). “East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally”. Asian Economic Journal, 29(4), 303-324.
• Battese, G. E., & Coelli, T. J. (1988). Prediction of firm-level technical efficiencies with a generalized frontier production function and panel data. Journal of econometrics, 38(3), 387-399.
• Battese, G. E., & Coelli, T. J. (1992). Frontier production functions, technical efficiency and panel data: With application to paddy farmers in India. Journal of Productivity Analysis, 3(1-2), 153–169. http://doi.org/10.1007/BF00158774
• Battese, G. E., & Coelli, T. J. (1993). A stochastic frontier production function incorporating a model for technical inefficiency effects. Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society. http://doi.org/10.1007/BF01205442
• Battese, G. E., & Coelli, T. J. (1995). A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data. Empirical Economics, 20(2), 325–332. http://doi.org/10.1007/BF01205442
• Bergstrand, J. H. (1985). The Gravity Equation in International Trade: Some Microeconomic Foundations and Empirical Evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474–481. http://doi.org/10.2307/1925976
• Bergstrand, J. H. (1989). The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71(1), 143–153. http://doi.org/10.2307/1928061
• Bhattacharya, S. K., & Das, G. G. (2014). Can South-South Trade Agreements Reduce Development Deficits?: An Exploration of SAARC during 1995-2008. Journal of South Asian Development, 9(3), 253–285. http://doi.org/10.1177/0973174114549129
• Cornwell, C., Schmidt, P., & Sickles, R. C. (1990). Production frontiers with cross-sectional and time-series variation in efficiency levels. Journal of Econometrics, 46(1-2), 185–200. http://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(90)90054-W
• Danquah, M., Barimah, A., & Ohemeng, W. (2010). Regional Integration , Trade and National Efficiency in ECOWAS Countries.The West African Economic Review,2(1),65-87.
• Daraio, C., & Simar, L. (2007). Advanced robust and nonparametric methods in efficiency analysis: Methodology and applications. Springer Science & Business Media.
• Deardorff, A. V. (1998). Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does Gravity Work in a Neoclassical World? NBER Working Paper No. W5377, (January), 7–32. http://doi.org/10.3386/w5377
• Debreu, G. (1951). The Coefficient of Resource Utilization. Econometrica, 19(3), 273–292. http://doi.org/10.2307/1906814
• Dixit, A. K., & Stiglitz, J. E. (1977). Monopolistic competition and optimum product diversity. The American Economic Review, 67(3), 297-308.
• Drysdale, P., & Armstrong, S. P. (2014). “Japan's Foreign Economic Policy Strategies and Economic Performance”.
• Effendi,Y. (2014) “Asean Free Trade Agreement Implementation for Indonesian Trading Performance: A Gravity Model Approach”, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan, Ministry of Trade, 8(1).
• Farrell, M. J. (1957). The Measurement of Productive Efficiency. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General), 120(3), pp. 253–290. http://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(01)00022-4
• Fried, H. O., Lovell, C. A. K., & Schmidt, S. S. (2008). Efficiency and Productivity. The Measurement of Productive Efficiency and Productivity Change, 1–89. https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195183528.003.0001
• Greene, W. (2013). Export Potential for US Advanced Technology Goods to India Using a Gravity Model Approach. US International Trade Commission, Working Paper, (2013-03B), 1-43.http://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780195183528.003.0001
• Jondrow, J., Knox Lovell, C. A., Materov, I. S., & Schmidt, P. (1982). On the estimation of technical inefficiency in the stochastic frontier production function model. Journal of Econometrics, 19(2-3), 233–238. http://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(82)90004-5
• Kang, H., & Fratianni, M. U. (2006). International trade efficiency, the gravity equation, and the stochastic frontier. Available at SSRN 952848.
• Kalirajan, K. P., & Shand, R. T. (1999). Frontier Production Functions and Technical Efficiency Measures. Journal of Economic Surveys, 13(2), 149–172. http://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00080
• Kalirajan, K. (2008), "Gravity model specification and estimation: revisited", Applied Economics Letters 15(13): 1037–1039.
• Kalirajan, K., & Singh, K. (2008). A Comparative Analysis of China’s and India’s Recent Export Performances *. Asian Economic Papers, 7(1), 1–28. https://doi.org/10.1162/asep.2008.7.1.1
• Kalirajan, K., & Liu, Y. (2016). "Renewable energy trade within Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) countries: an exploratory analysis" (No. 2016-05). The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
• Khan, I. U., & Kalirajan, K. (2011). "The impact of trade costs on exports: An empirical modeling". Economic Modelling, 28(3), 1341-1347
• Kodde, D. A., & Palm, F. C. (1986). Wald criteria for jointly testing equality and inequality restrictions. Econometrica: journal of the Econometric Society, 1243-1248.
• Koh, W. C. (2013). Brunei Darussalam ’ s Trade Potential and ASEAN Economic Integration : A Gravity Model Approach, 1(December), 67–89.
• Koopmans, T. C. (1951). An Analysis of Production as an Efficient Combination of Activities. In Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation (pp. 225–87). Retrieved from http://www.cer.ethz.ch/resec/people/tsteger/Ramsey_Model.pdf
• Kumbhakar, S. C. (1990). Production frontiers, panel data, and time-varying technical inefficiency. Journal of Econometrics, 46(1-2), 201–211. http://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(90)90055-X
• Lee, Y. H., & Schmidt, P. (1993). A production frontier model with flexible temporal variation in technical efficiency. The measurement of productive efficiency: Techniques and applications, 237-255.
• Lewis, F., Butler, A., & Gilbert, L. (2011). A unified approach to model selection using the likelihood ratio test. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 2(2), 155–162. http://doi.org/10.1111/j.2041-210X.2010.00063.x
• Mastromarco, C. (2008). Stochastic frontier models. Department of Economics and Mathematics-Statistics, University of Salento.
• Meeusen, W., & Broeck., J. van Den. (1977). Efficiency Estimation from Cobb-Douglas Production Functions with Composed Error. International Economic Review, 18(2), 435–444. http://doi.org/10.1080/00420986820080431
• Miankhel, A. K., Kalirajan, K., & Thangavelu, S. M. (2014). Australia's export potential: an exploratory analysis. Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, 19(2), 230-246.
• Miankhel, A. K. (2015). "Comparative Advantage, Institutions and'Behind the Border'Obstacles. Institutions and'Behind the Border'Obstacles" (December 10, 2015).
• Nasir, S. & Kalirajan, K. (2016). Information and Communication Technology-Enabled Modern Services Export Performances of Asian Economies. Asian Development Review.
• Nguyen, V.S. and Kalirajan, K. (2016) "Export of environmental goods: India’s potential and constraints", Environment and Development Economics, 21(2), 158–179. doi: 10.1017/S1355770X15000224
• Pitt, M. M., & Lee, L. F. (1981). The measurement and sources of technical inefficiency in the Indonesian weaving industry. Journal of Development Economics, 9(1), 43–64. http://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3878(81)90004-3
• Pöyhönen, P. (1963). A Tentative Model for the Volume of Trade between Countries. Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 90, 93–100.
• Ravishankar, G., & Stack, M. M. (2014). The Gravity Model and Trade Efficiency: A Stochastic Frontier Analysis of Eastern European Countries’ Potential Trade. World Economy, 37(5), 690–704. http://doi.org/10.1111/twec.12144
• Roperto, J. D., & Edgardo, C. (2014). Philippine Export Efficiency and Potential: An Application of Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. World Journal of Economic and Finance, 1(2), 006–015.
• Salim, R. A., Kabir, M. M., & Mawali, N. A. (2011). Does more trade potential remain in Arab States of the Gulf?. Journal of Economic Integration, 217-243. Sanyal, P., Brady, P. V., & Vugrin, E. D. (2013). The Impact of Trade Costs on Rare Earth Exports: A Stochastic Frontier Estimation Approach. Sandia National Laboratories.
• Sayavong, V. (2015). Export Growth , Export Potential and Export Resistance: A Case Study of Laos. Journal of Southeast Asian Economies, 32(3), 340–357. http://doi.org/10.1355/ae32-3c
• Schmidt, P., & Sickles, R. C. (1984). Production frontiers and panel data. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics. http://doi.org/10.2307/1391278
• Sumani, I.I. (2015) “Determinants of Ghana’s Trade Flows in Economic Community of West African States: Application of the Gravity Model”, A Master Thesis, Istanbul Technical University, Graduate School of Science Engineering and Technology.
• Tamini, L. Chebbi, H. E., & Abbassi, A. (2016). Trade performance and potential of North African countries : An application of a stochastic frontier gravity model
• Tinbergen, J. (1963). Shaping the world economy. The International Executive,5(1), 27-30.
• Viorica, E.-D. (2015). Econometric Analysis of Foreign Trade Efficiency of E.U. Members Using Gravity Equations. Procedia Economics and Finance, 20(15), 670–678. http://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(15)00122-7
• Waheed, A., & Abbas, S. (2015). "Potential Export Markets for Bahrain: A Panel Data Analysis". International Journal of Trade, Economics and Finance, 6(3), 165.
• Zarzoso, I. M. (2003). Gravity model: An application to trade between regional blocs. Atlantic Economic Journal, 31(2), 174–187. http://doi.org/10.1007/BF02319869
• Zhang, N., Zhou, P., & Choi, Y. (2013). Energy efficiency, CO2 emission performance and technology gaps in fossil fuel electricity generation in Korea: A meta-frontier non-radial directional distance functionanalysis. Energy Policy, 56, 653–662. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.01.033