Cointegration and Causality between Public Expenditure and Economic Growth: Case of Kyrgyzstan

Year 2017, Volume: 4 Issue: 1, 19 - 34, 15.01.2017

Raziye Abdıyeva , Hakan Çetintaş

https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.285056

Cited By: 12

Abstract

According to
Wagner’s law there is unidirectional relationship from economic growth to
public expenditure. Wagner’s states that increase of national income leads to
faster growth of public expenditure. In other words, out of economic and social
development in the country, people will demand more public goods and it will
increase public expenditure at a faster rate than national income. 

This study is analyzing the long term and causality
relationship between public expenditure and economic growth in Kyrgyzstan and
tests the validity of Wagner's law in Kyrgyz economy by using an ARDL and Error
Correction models over the period 1995 to 2014. Empirical results showed that
there is an unidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and
public expenditure in long term. Empirical evidence is support the validity of
Wagner’s law in Kyrgyz economy. 

Keywords

Economic Growth, Public Expenditure, Wagner’s Law

Kamu Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Kırgızistan Örneği

Abstract

Wagner kanununa göre
ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasında tek yönlü bir ilişki bulunmaktadır.
Milli gelirin artması kamu harcamalarının daha büyük bir oranda artmasına neden
olacaktır. Diğer bir ifadeyle, ülkede ortaya çıkan sosyal ve ekonomik gelişme birlikte
kişilerin kamusal mallara olan talebi de artmakta, bu da kamu harcamalarının
milli gelirin artış hızından daha da yüksek oranda artması ile
sonuçlanmaktadır.

Bu çalışmada Kırgızistan’da ekonomik büyüme
ile kamu harcamaları arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ve nedensellik
incelenmiştir. ARDL ve Hata Düzeltme modelleri yardımıyla Kırgızistan
ekonomisinde Wagner kanununun geçerliliği test edilmiştir. Çalışmada 1995-2014
dönemini kapsayan yıllık veriler kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular Kırgızistan’da
ekonomik büyüme ile kamu harcamaları arasında uzun dönemde tek yönlü bir
nedensellik ilişkinin bulunduğunu ve Wagner kanununun Kırgız ekonomisi için geçerli
olduğunu göstermektedir.   

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, Kamu Harcamaları, Wagner Kanunu

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