AB’ye Üye Ülkelerde Sanayileşmenin Belirleyicileri: Dinamik Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2022, Volume: 9 Issue: 1, 37 - 56, 01.01.2022

Özge Erdölek Kozal , Gülçin Gürel Günal

https://doi.org/10.17541/optimum.946057

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Sanayileşme, ilk sanayi devriminden bugüne, başta Avrupa olmak üzere tüm dünyada ekonomik, politik ve sosyal dönüşümlere sebep olmuştur. 21. yüzyılda da Avrupa öncülüğünde ilan edilen yeni sanayileşme dalgasıyla da sürdürülebilir büyüme ve kalkınmanın itici gücü olarak yeniden tartışmaya açılmıştır. Bu çerçevede, son 10 yılda Avrupa Birliği’ne (AB) üye ülkelerde de yeni bölgesel politika arayışları gündeme gelmiş ve özellikle AB’nde yeniden sanayileşme için bir yol haritası ihtiyacı ortaya çıkmıştır. Bu nedenle bu çalışmada, AB’ye üye ülkelerde sanayileşmeyi etkileyen unsurlar, 1995-2018 yılları için iki aşamalı sistem GMM yöntemi kullanılarak analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmanın bulguları, AB üye ülkelerinde sermaye ve beşerî sermaye stoku, dışa açıklık, göreli gelir, enflasyon, bankalar tarafından özel sektöre sağlanan krediler, 2008 krizi gibi temel ekonomik göstergeler ile kurumsal altyapı gibi sosyoekonomik genel görünümle ilişkili olan göstergeleri sanayileşmeyi etkileyen ana unsurlar olarak ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Sanayileşme, İmalat Sanayi, Avrupa Birliği, Panel Veri Analizi, Sistem GMM

Determinants of Industrialization in Member States of the European Union: Dynamic Panel Data Analysis

Abstract

Since the first industrial revolution, industrialization has caused important economic, politic, and social transformations in the world, especially in Europe. With the new industrial wave leaded by Europe in the 21st century, industrialization has begun to be reconsidered as one of the main drivers of sustainable economic growth and development. In this context, in the last decade, the search for new regional policies has also been on the agenda of the EU member countries and the need for a roadmap for the re-industrialization process of the EU has emerged. Therefore, in this study, the main determinants of industrialization in EU member countries for the 1995-2018 are examined using the two-stage system GMM approach. Findings reveal that, main economic indicators such as, capital, and human capital stock, economic openness, relative income, inflation, domestic credits provided by banks to private sector, 2008 crisis and indicator that is related to socio-economic structure of the countries such as institutional background are the main factors affecting industrialization in EU.

Keywords

Industrialization, Manufacturing, European Union, Panel Data Analysis, system GMM

References

• Acemoğlu, D. ve Robinson, A. J. (2015). Ulusların Düşüşü: Güç, Zenginlik ve Yoksulluğun Kökenleri. (Çev. F.R. Velioğlu). İstanbul: Doğan Kitap.
• Anderson, T. W. & Hsiao, C. (1981). Estimation of dynamic models with error components. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 76(375): 598-606.
• Ambroziak, A. A. (2015). Europeanization processes from the mesoeconomic perspective: ındustries and policies. In W. P, Stanek & K. Wach (Eds.), Europeanization of industrial policy: towards re-industrialisation. Kraków: Uniwersytet Ekonomiczny w Krakowie.
• Arellano, M. & Bover. O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 29-51.
• Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297.
• Baum, F. C. & Schaffer E. M. (2013). A general approach to testing for autocorrelation. Boston: Boston College.
• Bitros, George C. & Panas E. E. (2001). Is there an inflation-productivity trade-off? Some evidence from the manufacturing sector in Greece. Applied Economics, 33(15), 1961-1969.
• Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143.
• Castelo-Branco, I., Cruz-Jesus F. & Oliveira, T. (2019). Assessing Industry 4,0 readiness in manufacturing: Evidence for the European Union. Computers in Industry, 107, 22-32.
• Chenery, H. (1982). Industrialization and growth: The experience of large countries. (The World Bank., No. SWP539).
• Cornwall, J. (1977). Modern Capitalism, Its Growth and Transformation, New York: St.
• Council of the European Communities. (1992). Treaty on European Union, Luxembourg: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities.
• Czirfusz, M., Barta G. & Kukely, G. (2008). Re-industrialisation in the World and in Hungary. European Spatial Research and Policy, 15(2), 5-27.
• Eurofound (European Foundation for the Improvement of Living and Working Conditions). (2019). The future of manufacturing in Europe. Luxembourg: European Union.
• Fagerberg, J. & Verspagen, B. (1999). Modern Capitalism’in the 1970s and 1980s, Growth, employment and inflation, London: Palgrave Macmillan.
• Gilchrist, A. (2016). Industry 4.0: The industrial internet of things. Berkeley: Apress.
• Guadagno, F. (2016). The determinants of industrialisation in developing countries, 1960-2005. United Nations University-Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT No. 2016-031).
• Hadri, K. & Kurozumi, E. (2012). A simple panel stationarity test in the presence of serial correlation and a common factor. Economics Letters, 115(1), 31-34.
• Heymann, E. ve Vetter, S. (2013). Europe’s re-industrialisation the gulf between aspiration and reality. Frankfurt am Main: Deutsche Bank AG, DB Research.
• Jaegers, T., Lipp-Lingua, C. & Amil D. (2013). High-technology and medium-high technology industries main drivers of EU-27’s industrial growth. Statistics in Focus. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-statistics-in-focus/-/ks-sf-13-001, Erişim Tarihi: 30.05.2021.
• Kaldor, N. (1966). Causes of the slow rate of economic growth of the United Kingdom: an inaugural lecture. London: Cambridge UP.
• Karadag, M., Önder, Ö. A. & Deliktaş, E. (2005). Growth of factor productivity in the Turkish manufacturing industry at provincial level. Regıonal Studies. 39(2), 213-223.
• Kozal, E. Ö. ve Barbaros, F. R. (2019). Türkiye’de Sanayi 4,0 Dönüşümünün Olanakları ve Kısıtları Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme. Ege Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(2), 19-42.
• Kumar, S., Webber, D. J. & Perry, G. (2012). Real wages, inflation and labour productivity in Australia. Applied Economics, 44(23), 2945-2954.
• Kutu, A. A. & Ngalawa, H. (2016). Dynamics of industrial production in BRICS countries, International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies. 8(1), 1-25.
• Lammers, K. (2004). How will the enlargement affect the old members of the European Union?. Intereconomics, 39(3), 132-141.
• Landes, S. D. (1969). The unbound Prometheus: technological change and industrial development in Western Europe from 1750 to the present, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
• Marconi, N., Fróes de Borja Reis, C. & Cristina de Araújo, E. (2016). Manufacturing and economic development: The actuality of Kaldor's first and second laws. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 37, 75-89.
• Mazhar, U. & Rehman, F. (2019). Manufacturing as a Growth Escalator in Low and Middle Income Countries. Journal of Economics and Finance, 44, 1-20.
• McCausland, W. D. & Theodossiou, I. (2012). Is manufacturing still the engine of growth?. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 35(1), 79-92.
• Naudé, W., Szirmai, A. & Lavopa, A. (2013). Industrialization lessons from BRICS: A comparative analysis. (IZA Discussion Paper Series. No. 7543).
• Nickell, S., Redding S. & Swaffield, J. (2008). The uneven pace of deindustrialisation in the OECD. World Economy, 31(9), 1154-1184. O'Brien, K. P. (2001). Metanarratives in global histories of material progress. The International History Review, 23(2), 345-367.
• Pesaran, H. M. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
• Pryymachenko, Y., Fregert K. & Andersson, F. (2013). The effect of emigration on unemployment: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European EU member states. Economics Bulletin, 33(4), 2692-2697.
• Robinson, S., Syrquin, M. & World Bank. (1986). Industrialization and growth: a comparative study, New York: Published for the World Bank, Oxford University Press.
• Rodrik, D. (2007). Industrial Development: Some Stylized Facts and Policy Directions. Industrial Development for the 21st Century. U.N. Department of Economic and Social Affairs: Division for Sustainable Development.
• Rodrik, D. (2008). The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2, 365-412.
• Rodrik, D. (2016). Premature deindustrialization, Journal of economic growth. 21(1), 1-33.
• Schumpeter, A. J. (1911). The theory of economic development, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
• Singh, A. (1977). UK industry and the world economy: A case of de-industrialization?. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(2), 183-214.
• Szirmai, A. (2012). Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950- 2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 23(4), 406-420.
• Szirmai, A. & Verspagen, B. (2015). Manufacturing and economic growth in developing countries, 1950–2005. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 34, 46-59.
• Temple, J. & Voth, H-J. (1998). Human capital, equipment investment, and industrialization. European Economic Review, 42(7), 1343-1362.
• Thirlwall, P. A. (2003). The nature of economic growth: an alternative framework for understanding the performance of nations. Northampton: Edward Elgar Publishing.
• Timmer, Marcel P. & Szirmai, A. (2000). Productivity growth in Asian manufacturing: the structural bonus hypothesis examined. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 11(4), 371-392.
• Trichet, J-C. (2004). EU Enlargement: Challenges and Opportunities. Conference on Europe’s Frontiers: EU Enlargement - Its Implications and Consequences.
• Westkämper, E. (2014). Towards the re-industrialization of Europe: a concept for manufacturing for 2030. Berlin: Springer.
• World Bank. (2019). World Development Indicators. https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, Erişim Tarihi: 20.03.2020.