Do Earthquakes Affect Stock Market Index?

Year 2020, Vol: 15 - Issue: 10. Year Special Issue, 4768 - 4780, 30.06.2020

Hakan Yıldırım , Andrew Alola

https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.687318

Cited By: 2

Abstract

While environmental challenges are being significantly linked with natural disaster such as the earthquake, other implications such as the financial market implication are being almost overlooked. The relationship between natural disasters and financial markets is an important situation for investors and markets. Hence the current study examines the shock impact of earthquake on the stock index of the Republic of Turkey over the period of 2000M2 to 2017M12. While the exchange rate and the global economic policy uncertainty (GEPU) were incorporated in the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, significant statistical inference that are relevant for policy suggestions were observed. The study found that there is a dynamic impact of earthquake and exchange rate on the Turkish index. Also, while the impact of earthquake is statistically not significant in the short-run, the long-run impact of earthquake, GEPU and exchange rate are all statistically significant and negative. Generally, the study posits a valuable policy direction to government and other related stakeholders.

Keywords

Earthquake, Stock Index, Uncertainty, Republic of Turkey

Depremler Borsa Endeksini Etkiler Mi

Abstract

Çevresel zorluklar deprem gibi doğal afetlerle önemli ölçüde bağlantılı olmakla birlikte, finansal piyasalarda neden olduğu sonuçlar neredeyse göz ardı edilmektedir.Doğal afetler ile finansal piyasalar arasındaki ilişki yatırımcılar ve piyasalar için önemli bir durumdur. Bu nedenle, söz konusu çalışma 2000/2 - 2017/12 döneminde depremin Türkiye'deki hisse senedi endeksi üzerindeki şok etkisini incelemektedir. Diğer yandan çalışmada, döviz kuru ve küresel ekonomi politikası belirsizliği (GEPU) otoregresif dağıtılmış gecikme (ARDL) modeline dahil edilirken, politika önerileri ile ilgili önemli istatistiksel çıkarım gözlenmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular ise deprem ve döviz kurunun Türkiye endeksi üzerinde dinamik bir etkisi olduğu yönündedir. Ayrıca, deprem etkisi kısa vadede istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmasa da, deprem, GEPU ve döviz kurunun uzun dönemli etkisi istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve negatif yönlü olduğu yönündedir. Genel olarak, çalışma hükumete ve diğer ilgili paydaşlara değerli bir politika yönelimi ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Deprem, Borsa Endeksi, Belirsizlik, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti

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