Covid-19’dan Türkiye Borsası Kendi Özelinden mi, Yoksa Küresel Ölçekten mi Daha Fazla Etkileniyor?

Year 2021, Volume: 17 Issue: Pandemi Özel Sayısı, 3869 - 3891, 30.04.2021

Ziya Çağlar Yurttançıkmaz , Dilek Özdemir , Ömer Yalçınkaya , Ömer Selçuk Emsen

https://doi.org/10.26466/opus.870980

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Ekonomide belirsizliklerin bekle-gör politikaları dahilinde hem reel hem de finansal ekonomik kararlarda yavaşlamayı gündeme taşımaktadır. Belirsizliğin arızi olarak ortaya çıkan savaş ve afet gibi durumlarda derinleştiği dikkate alınırsa, halihazırda düyayı saran Covid-19’un da belirsizliği derinleştirici etkiler yaptığı gözlenmektedir. Diğer taraftan ülkeler bu sağlık problemleri ile mücadele ederken, sosyo-ekonomik yapıya etkilerini minimize etmek amacıyla Keynesyen politikalara rücu edilmekte; ekonomiler genişlemeci para ve maliye politikaları uygulamaları ile hem reel hem de finansal ekonomileri rahatlatmaya çalışmaktadırlar. Covid-19’daki derinleşmelerin yarattığı olumsuzluklara karşı hükümetlerin genişlemeci politikalarla müdahaleleri birbirine ters etkiler yaratmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinin önemli göstergelerinden biri olan BİST-100 endeksinin ulusal ve küresel Covid göstergeleri karşısındaki salınımları inceleme konusu yapılmıştır. Genişlemeci politikalar bağlamında uygulanan politikalar ile borsa alternatiflerinin kontrol değişken olarak kullanıldığı bu çalışmada 2019/12/31-2020/06/30 dönemi için MS-VAR analizlerine gidilmiştir. Analizlerde BİST-100'ün hem ulusal hem de küresel düzeydeki Covid göstergelerinden etkilendiği gözlenirken, bunun genişleme ve daralma evreleri şeklinde salınım gösterdiği tespit edilmiştir. Bu sonuçlar, Türkiye'de para ve maliye politikalarının küresel ve ulusal düzeyde Covid kaynaklı belirsizliklerin, iktisadi aktörlerin reel ve özellikle finansal kararları üzerindeki bekle ve gör etkisini mümkün olabildiğince minimize edebilecek proaktif bir anlayışla tasarlanmasının gerekli olduğuna işaret etmektedir.

Keywords

Covid-19,, Türkiye Ekonomisi,, MS-VAR Analizi, BIST Endeksi, Doğrusal Olmayan Zaman Serisi

Is Turkey's Stock Market More Affected by Covid-19 Indicators at National Scales or Global Scales

Abstract

In the context of wait-and-see policies due to uncertainties in the economy, both real and financial economic decisions bring to the agenda a slowdown. Considering that uncertainty gets ever deeper in accidental situations like wars and disasters, we observe that Covid-19 has not only surrounded the world, but has also further deepened this uncertainty. On the other hand, countries continue to struggle with health problems, while receding back to Keynesian economics to minimize the effects on their socio-economic structure, as economies try to relieve both real and financial economies by implementing expansionary monetary and financial policies. These expansionary policies and interventions by governments against such negativities have created opposite effects. This study examines the oscillations regarding the BIST-100 index, an important indicator of the Turkish economy, against national and global Covid indicators. Using policies expansionary policies and stock exchange alternatives as control variables, this study included MS-VAR analyses for the period of 2019/12/31-2020/06/30. It was observed that BIST-100 was affected by Covid indicators at both national and global levels and that it showed oscillations in the form of expansion and shrinking. These findings indicate that the monetary and fiscal policies in Turkey should be designed based on a proactive approach to minimize the wait-and-see effects of global and national uncertainties on the real and particularly the financial decisions of economic actors.

Keywords

Covid-19, Turkish Economy, Stock Market Index, MS-VAR Analyses, Non-Linear Time Series.

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