Belirsizlik ve ARGE Yatırımları

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 79 - 89, 28.12.2020

Ömer Özçiçek , Erkan Alsu

Abstract

Genel olarak işletmelerde “bekle gör” yaklaşımı sebebiyle belirsizliğin sermaye yatırımlarını olumsuz etkilediği sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Fakat ARGE yatırımlarında farklı bir sonuç ortaya çıkabilmektedir. Stratejik düşünen işletmeler belirsizlik ortamında ARGE yatırımlarını artırarak uzun vadeli rekabetçi pozisyona sahip olmayı hedefleyebilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı işletmelerin hisse senedi getirilerindeki belirsizliğinin, işletmenin ARGE yatırımları üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu çalışmada Borsa İstanbul’da kayıtlı imalat sektöründe faaliyet gösteren ve verilerine düzenli olarak ulaşılan 74 işletmenin 2006-2016 yılları arasındaki verileri Panel GMM yöntemiyle analiz edilmiştir. Belirsizlik ölçütü olarak şirketlerin hisse fiyatlarındaki oynaklık kullanılmıştır. Bu çalışmada Borsa İstanbul’da işlem gören imalat sanayi şirketleri üzerine yapılan panel veri analizinde belirsizliğin arttığı dönemlerde ARGE yatırımlarının arttığı görülmüştür.

Keywords

Belirsizlik, Şirket Yatırımı, Arge Yatırımları

Uncertainty and R&D Investment

Abstract

Because of “wait and see” approach in business the general consensus is that uncertainty negatively affects capital investment. But a different result may emerge in R&D investment. Businesses with strategic decision making may increase R&D investment under uncertainty to aim to attain long term competitive position. The aim of this study is to examine the effect of uncertainty in the stock returns of firms on R&D investment of the firm. In this study, the data between the years of 2006-2016 of 74 enterprises operating in the manufacturing sector registered in Borsa Istanbul and whose data have been accessed regularly, were analyzed by Panel GMM method. As uncertainty measure the volatility of firms’ stock market prices is used. In this study the result of panel data analysis conducted on manufacturing industry firms traded in Borsa İstanbul is that R&D investment increases in periods when uncertainty increases.

Keywords

Uncertainty, Company Investment, R-D Investment

References

• Abel, Andrew. (1983). Optimal investment under uncertainty. American Economic Review, 73, 228–233.
• Arellano, M. & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte carlo evidence and an application to employment equation. The Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277–297.
• Arellano, M. & Bover, O. (1995). Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models. J. Econometrics, 68, 29–51.
• Arellano, C., Bai, Y. & Kehoe, P. (2010). Financial markets and fluctuations in uncertainty. Federal Reserve Bank of Minnesota Research Department Staff Report.
• Aydın, C. ve Odabaşıoğlu, F. G. (2016). Makroekonomik Belirsizlik ve Risk Altında Yatırım Kararları: Türkiye Örneği. Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 4(2), 46-67.
• Bar-Ilan, A. & Strange, W. (1996). Investment lags. American Economic Review, 86(3), 610 –22.
• Bernanke, B. S. (1983). Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 98(1), 85 –106
• Bloom, N. (2014). Fluctuations in uncertainty. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 28(2), 153–176.
• Bloom, N. & Van Reenen, J. (2002). Patents, real options and firm performance. Economic Journal 112, C97-C116.
• Bloom, N., Bond, S., & Van Reenen, J. (2007). Uncertainty and investment dynamics. Review of Economic Studies, 74(2), 391–415.
• Blundell, R. & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. J. Econometrics, 87, 115–143.
• Bontempi, M. E. (2016). Investment–Uncertainty relationship: Differences between intangible and physical capital. Economics of Innovation and New Technology, 25(3), 240-268
• Campa, J. M. & Goldberg, L. S. (1995). Investment in manufacturing, exchange-rates and external exposure. Journal of International Economics, 38, 297–320.
• Czarnitzki, D. & Toole, A. A. (2007). Business R&D and the interplay of R&D subsidies and product market uncertainty. Review of Industrial Organization, 31(3), 169-181.
• Czarnitzki, D. ve Toole, A. A. (2011). Patent protection, market uncertainty, and R&D investment. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 93(1), 147-159.
• Dixit, A. & Pindyck, R. (1994). Investment Under Uncertainty. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.
• Driver, C., Temple, P. & Urga, G. (2008). Real options - delay vs. pre-emption: Do industrial characteristics matter?. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 26(2), 532-545.
• Fırat, D. (2009). Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment in argentina, Mexico and Turkey. Applied Economics Letters, 16(6), 567-571.
• Flannery, M. J. & Hankins, K. W. (2013). Estimating dynamic panel models in corporate finance. Journal of Corporate Finance, 19, 1-19.
• Goel, R. K. & Ram, R. (1999). Variations in the effect of uncertainty on different types of investment: An empirical investigation. Australian Economic Papers, 38, 481–92.
• Guiso, L. & Parigi, G. (1999). Investment and demand uncertainty. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 114(1), 185–227.
• Hartman, R. (1972). The effect of price and cost uncertainty on investment. Journal of Economic Theory, 5(2), 258-266.
• Ilut, C. & Schneider, M. (2014). Ambiguous business cycles. The American Economic Review, 104(8), 2368-2399.
• Ito, K. & Haneda, S. (2017). Exchange rate uncertainty and R&D investment: Evidence from japanese firms. The Developing Economics, 55(2), 56-74.
• Julio, B. & Yook, Y. (2012). Political uncertainty and corporate investment cycles. The Journal of Finance, 67(1), 45–83.
• Jung, S. & Kwak, G. (2018). Firm characteristics, uncertainty and research and development (R&D) investment: The role of size and innovation capacity, Sustainability, MDPI, 10(5), 1-14.
• Kang, W., Le, K., & Ratti, R. A. (2014). Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 42–53.
• Keynes, J.M. (1921). A treatise on probability. Rough Draft Printers, New York.
• Keynes, J. M. (1936). The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money. Palgrave Macmillan, London
• Knigh, F. H. (1921). Risk, Uncertainty and Profit. Nabu Press, Charleston
• Koetse, M. J., Groot, H. L., & Florax, R. J. (2009). A meta analysis of the investment uncertainty relationship. Southern Economic Journal, 76(1), 283-306.
• Kraft, H., Schwartz, E., & Weiss, F. (2018). Growth options and firm valuations. European Financial Managment, 24(2), 209-238.
• Kulatilaka, N. & Perotti, E.C. (1998). Strategic growth option. Management Science, 44, 1021-1031.
• Leahy, J. V. & Whited, T. M. (1996). The effect of uncertainty on investment: Some stylized facts. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 28, 64-83.
• Minton, B. A. & Schrand, C. M. (1999). The impact of cash flow volatility on discretionary investment and the costs of debt and equity financing. Journal of Financial Economics, 54(3), 423-460.
• Oi, W. Y. (1961). The desirability of price instability under perfect competition, Econometrica, 29(1), 58–64.
• Panousi, V. & Papanikolaou, D. (2012). Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership. Journal of Finance, 67(3), 1113–1148.
• Pindyck, R. S. (1988). Capital Risk and Models of Investment Behaviour. In: Motamen H. (eds) Economic Modelling in the OECD Countries. International Studies In Economic Modelling. Springer,
• Pindyck, R. S. (1993). Investments of uncertain cost. Journal of Financial Economics, 34, 53-76.
• Servén, L. (2002). Real Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Private Investment in Developing Countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 2823.
• Stein, L. C. D. & Stone, E. (2013). The effect of uncertainty on investment, hiring, and R&D: Causal evidence from equity options. Unpublished Paper.
• Ross, J. M, Fisch, J. H., & Varga, E. (2018). Unlocking the value of real options: How firm specific learning conditions affect R&D investments under uncertainty. Strategic Entrepreneurship Journal, 12(3), 335-353.
• Vo, L. V. & Le, H. T. T. (2017). Strategic growth option, uncertainty, and R&D investment. International Review of Financial Analysis, 51, 16–24.
• Wang, Y., Wei, Y., & Song, F. M. (2017). Uncertainty and corporate R&D investment: Evidence from Chinese listed firms. International Review of Economics & Finance, 47(1), 176-200.