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Year 2023, Issue: 48, 9 - 62, 31.12.2023

Alev Kılıç

Abstract

Bu incelemede Haziran-Kasım 2023 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış dinamikler, Azerbaycan’ın Karabağ üzerindeki egemenliğini sağlaması sonrası barış anlaşması sürecindeki gelişmeler ile Türkiye-Ermenistan arasındaki ilişkiler ve normalleşme sürecinin seyri ele alınmaktadır.

Dönem içinde Ermenistan’ın başlıca uğraşı ve kaygısı İkinci Karabağ Savaşı (44 Günlük Savaşı) sona erdiren 9 Kasım 2020 ateşkes anlaşmasını olabildiğince lehine çevirebilecek bir barış anlaşması arayışı içinde geçmiştir. Ateşkes anlaşmasının üçüncü tarafı ve uygulanmasının gözetimini üstlenen Rusya’nın Ukrayna savaşı nedeniyle bölgeye ilgisinin ve etkisinin zayıflaması, Batının ise Rusya’ya ikinci bir cephe açmak, Rusya’nın güney Kafkaslardaki nüfuzunu azaltmak üzere Ermenistan’ı yanına çekme girişimleri Ermenistan’da olumlu karşılık bulmuştur.

Esasen Batı yanlısı bir platformla yönetime gelen Başbakan Paşinyan Batının bu yaklaşımına, Rusya’yı karşısına almak pahasına, yeşil ışık yakmış, Azerbaycan ile barış anlaşması görüşmeleri, Moskova’nın ikinci plana düştüğü, Brüksel ve Vaşington odaklı yürütülmeye başlanmıştır. Batının başta dengeli olarak başlattığı bu süreç, doğası icabı ve muhtemelen Ermenistan’a bulunulan vaatlerden dolayı, Ermeni yanlısı bir çizgiye girince, Azerbaycan Batının girişimlerine tavır koymaya ve davetlerine katılmamaya başlamıştır.

Azerbaycan’ın 19 Eylül’de 24 saatlik bir askerî harekât ile Karabağ’daki ayrılıkçı yönetime son vermesi ve Karabağ’ın bütünü üzerinde egemenliğini tesis etmesi, barış anlaşması önündeki en büyük engeli ortadan kaldırmış, ancak üç sorunlu konu: sınırların tespiti ve bunun bir alt başlığı olarak Ermenistan içindeki anklavlar, göç eden nüfusun karşılıklı olarak geri dönmeleri ve Zangezur ulaşım koridoru konusu gündemdeki yerini korumaya devam etmiştir. Ermenistan’ın Kasım ayında geliştirdiği “Barış Kavşakları” projesi ulaşım sorununun da çözülebileceği iyimserliği uyandırmıştır.

Bununla beraber, Ermenistan yetkililerinin iki yüzlü söylemi, bir yandan Azerbaycan’ın Karabağ Ermenilerini göçe zorlayarak “etnik temizlik” yaptıkları ve Azerbaycan’ın “Batı Azerbaycan”a saldırı planları içinde olduğu yolunda sahte suçlamalarla bütün ikili temaslarında ve uluslararası forumlarda Azerbeycan’ı kötülemesi, diğer taraftan barış havarisi kesilerek, barışı isteyen ve hedefleyen tek taraf olduklarını ileri sürerek, kısa zamanda bir barış anlaşmasının imzalanması ümitlerini soldurmuştur.

Bununla beraber, Ermenistan yetkililerinin iki yüzlü söylemi, bir yandan Azerbaycan’ın Karabağ Ermenilerini göçe zorlayarak “etnik temizlik” yaptıkları ve Azerbaycan’ın “Batı Azerbaycan”a saldırı planları içinde olduğu yolunda sahte suçlamalarla bütün ikili temaslarında ve uluslararası forumlarda Azerbeycan’ı kötülemesi, diğer taraftan barış havarisi kesilerek, barışı isteyen ve hedefleyen tek taraf olduklarını ileri sürerek, kısa zamanda bir barış anlaşmasının imzalanması ümitlerini soldurmuştur.

Türkiye ile ilişkiler barış anlaşması sürecindeki gelişmeye bağlı ve paralel olarak olumlu beklenti anlayışını sürdürmüştür.

Keywords

Paşinyan, Mirzoyan, Grigoryan, Asriyan, Putin, Erdoğan, Lavrov, Fidan, Blinken, Michel, Karabağ, Zangezur koridoru, Barış Kavşakları, UAD, KGAÖ

Facts and Comments

Abstract

This article covers the period of June-November 2023 of the internal developments in Armenia, the international standing and relations of Armenia, the progress in concluding the peace agreement following the establishment of full sovereignty of Azerbaijan in Karabakh and the bilateral relations of Türkiye and Armenia in the light of the process of normalization of their relations.

During the period, the main concern and strive of Armenia was focused on the availability of modifying the cease-fire agreement of 9 November 2020 that ended the Second Karabakh War (44-day War), through a peace agreement to its favor to the extent possible. The third party to the cease-fire agreement and supervisor of the implementation of the agreement, Russia’s weakening interest and impact in the region stemming from its war with Ukraine on the one hand and the strategy of the West to distract Russia on a second front as well as its initiative to align Armenia on its side with a view to reducing the influence of Russia in the South Caucasus has received a positive response from Armenia.

Prime Minister Pashinyan, who was elected on a pro-West platform has given the green light to this initiative of the West at the expense of alienating Russia, whereby peace agreement negotiations with Azerbaijan have primarily moved on to Brussels and Washington D.C., leaving Moscow at a secondary status. When this process encouraged by the West started initially in a balanced manner, but inherent in its nature and possibly due to promises made to Armenia, deviated to a biased pro-Armenian course, it has caused Azerbaijan to keep its distance and eventually to refuse to attend the invitations.

The 24-hour military operation of Azerbaijan on 19 September which brought the end of the separatist administration in Karabakh and established its full sovereignty on the whole territory of Karabakh has thus removed the major hurdle before the peace agreement. However, three points of dispute; the demarcation of borders and a sub-item under this heading, the enclaves within Armenia, the return of refugees to their homelands on a reciprocal basis, and the opening of the transport corridor of Zangezur have kept their places in the agenda. The “Crossroads of Peace” Project Armenia announced in November has raised the optimism that a solution to the transport issue could be at hand.

However, the double discourse on part of Armenia, on the one hand alleging that Azerbaijan committed ethnic cleansing by forced migration of Karabakh Armenians and also alleging that Azerbaijan is planning an assault to “Western Azerbaijan”, disparaging Azerbaijan with false accusations at all international forums, yet on the other hand presenting itself as the only party whose singular desire and aim is to establish peace; has dimmed chances for an early conclusion of a peace agreement.

Relations with Türkiye have kept their positive impetus in line and tandem with the development in the peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Keywords

Pashinyan, Mirzoyan, Grigoryan, Asriyan, Putin, Erdogan, Lavrov, Fidan, Blinken, Michel, Karabakh, Zangezur corridor, Crossroads of Peace, ICJ, CSTO

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• “Press Remarks by President Charles Michel Following Trilateral Meeting with President Aliyev of Azerbaijan and Prime Minister Pashinyan of Armenia”. European Council, July 15, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/07/15/press-remarks-by-president-charles- michel-following-trilateral-meeting-with-president-aliyev-of-azerbaijan-and-prime-minister-pashinyan-of-armenia/
• “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and The President of the Republic of Iran Hold Telephone Conversation”. Prime Minister of Armenia, September 9, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/09/09/Nikol-Pashinyan-Telephone-Conversation-3/
• “Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Interview with the Wall Street Journal”. Prime Minister of Armenia, October 25, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/interviews-and-press-conferences/item/2023/10/25/Nikol-Pashinyan-Interview-The-Well-Street-Journal
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Holds Telephone Conversation with President of Iran Ebrahim Raisi”. Prime Minister of Armenia, June 26, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/pressrelease/item/2023/06/26/Nikol-Pashinyan-Telephone-Conversation/.
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Meets with President Khachaturyan”. Prime Minister of Armenia, May 29, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/05/29/Nikol-Pashinyan-met-with-Vahagn-Khachaturyan/
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Presents the “Crossroads of Peace” Project and Its Principles at the Tbilisi International Forum”. Prime Minister of Armenia, October 26, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/statements-and-messages/item/2023/10/26/Nikol-Pashinyan-Speech/
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Received the Special Representative of NATO Secretary General Javier Colomina”. Prime Minister of Armenia, May 23, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/05/23/Nikol-Pashinyan-meeting/
• “Prime Minister Pashinyan Receives the Medal Awarded by Pope Francis”. Prime Minister of Armenia, October 24, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/10/24/Nikol-Pashinyan-meeting/
• “Proposal to Sign an Agreement on Status of EU Mission in Armenia Approved”. First Channel News, August 31, 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/08/31/Proposal-to-sign-an-agreement-on-status-of-EU-mission-in-Armenia-approved/987018
• “Putin Hosts Fresh Talks Between Pashinian, Aliyev”. Azatutyun, May 26, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32428164.html
• “Remarks by President Charles Michel after his Meeting with the Leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan, France and Germany”. European Council, June 1, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/06/01/remarks-by-president-charles-michel-after-his-meeting-with-the-leaders-of-armenia-azerbaijan-france-and-germany/
• “Ruben Rubinyan Receives Political Director for Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia of MFA of Germany”. 1Lurer, July 17, 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/07/17/Ruben-RubinyanReceives-Political-Director-for-Eastern-Europe-Caucasus-and-Central-Asia-of-MFA-of-G/963691
• “Rubinyan Presented the Process of Regulating Armenia-Turkey Relations”. Radar Armenia, July 13, 2023, https://radar.am/en/news/politics-2578510420/
• “Russia Again Blames Pashinian for Karabakh Crisis”. Azatutyun, September 12, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32589437.html
• “Russia Calls Pashinian’s Criticism of Moscow over Situation in Nagorno-Karabakh ‘Unacceptable’”. Radio Free Europe, September 25, 2023, https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-armenia-azerbaijan-pashinian-criticism/32608635.html
• “Russia Cannot ‘Turn Back on’ South Caucasus Region, No Such Plans Envisioned — Kremlin”. TASS, September 5, 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1670081
• “Russia Strongly Urges Azerbaijan to Unblock the Lachin Corridor”. Armenpress, July 15, 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1115533.html
• “Russia Wants Armenia to Explain Ratification of ICC Rome Statute — Diplomat”. TASS, September 5, 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1670155
• “Russian MFA Rejects Accusations against Russian Peacekeepers over Lachin Corridor”. TASS, August 30, 2023, https://tass.com/politics/1667621
• “Secretary of Security Council and Secretary of Supreme National Security Council of Iran had Telephone Conversation”. 1Lurer, November 13, 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/11/13/Secretary-of-Security-Council-and-Secretary-of-Supreme-National-Security-Council-of-Iran-had-teleph/1029269
• “Special Forces of Armenia, Greece and Cyprus Hold Joint Drills”. ArmenPress, November 13, 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1124037.html
• “Speech by RA NA President at Autumn Meeting of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly”. 1Lurer, November 18, 2023, https://www.1lurer.am/en/2023/11/18/Speech-by-RA-NA-President-at-Autumn-Meeting-of-the-OSCE-Parliamentary-Assembly/1032628
• “Statement by Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense”. Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan, September 19, 2023, https://mod.gov.az/en/news/statement-by-azerbaijan-s-ministry-of-defense-49350.html
• “Statement by the Spokesperson of Charles Michel, President of the European Council, Regarding Armenia and Azerbaijan”. European Council, September 1, 2023, https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/press/press-releases/2023/09/01/statement-by-the-spokesperson-of-charles-michel-president-of-the-european-council-regarding-armenia-and-azerbaijan/
• “The Delegation Led by Alen Simonyan Leaves for Paris”. ArmenPress, July 10, 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1115084.html
• “The Karabakh “Parliament” also Issued a Call to the United Nations Member States on July 27, Asking for Its Independence to be Recognized within the Scope of the Principle of the Right to Compensatory Secession”. Hetq, July 27, 2023, https://hetq.am/en/article/158507
• “The Meeting between the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Armenia and the UK Minister for Europe”. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Armenia, November 13 2023, https://www.mfa.am/en/pressreleases/2023/11/13/GB_Mirzoyan/12322
• “The Prime Minister Received the Governor of Kansas and the Commander of the National Guard”. Radar Armenia, June 22, 2023, https://radar.am/en/news/politics-2574825954/
• “The Prime Minister will Leave for Georgia on a Working Visit”. Prime Minister of Armenia, July 7, 2023, https://www.primeminister.am/en/press-release/item/2023/07/07/Nikol-Pashinyan-visit-to-Georgia/
• “U.S. Looks Forward to Rescheduling Postponed Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks in Washington”. Armenpress, June 14, 2023, https://armenpress.am/eng/news/1113208/
• “UN Team Completes Mission to Karabakh”. United Nations Azerbaijan, October 2, 2023, https://azerbaijan.un.org/en/248051-un-team-completes-mission-karabakh
• “US Completes Joint Military Exercise in Armenia”. Aljazeera, September 20, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/20/us-completes-joint-military-exercise-in-armenia
• “US Envoy Again Visits Armenia, Azerbaijan”. Mirror Spectator, June 1, 2023, https://mirrorspectator.com/2023/06/01/us-envoy-again-visits-armenia-azerbaijan/
• “Vladimir Putin Meets with Members of the Valdai Discussion Club. Transcript of the Plenary Session of the 20th Annual Meeting”. Valdai Discussion Club, October 5, 2023, https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/vladimir-putin-meets-with-members-of-the-valdai-club-transcript-2023/
• “Washington Reaffirms Support for Armenia-Azerbaijan Peace Talks”. Azatutyun, November 17, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32688496.html
• Abay, Emre Gürkan. “Russia Summons Armenia’s Ambassador to Protest Yerevan’s ‘Unfriendly’ Steps”. Anadolu Agency, September 8, 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/world/russia-summons-armenias-ambassador-to-protest-yerevans-unfriendly-steps/2986973
• Babayan, Aza and Astghik Bedevian. “Armenia ‘Optimistic’ as Turkey’s Erdogan Insists on Corridor for Azerbaijan”. Azatutyun, November 3, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32669108.html
• Balasanyan, Grisha. “Yerevan Police Arrest Former Education Minister for Money Laundering”. Hetq, June 15, 2023, https://hetq.am/en/article/157170
• Bedevian, Astghik. “Armenian Opposition Signals Protests Against ‘Karabakh’s Surrender’”. Azatutyun, May 22, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32424296.html
• Bulghadarian, Naira. “Armenia’s First Foreign Intelligence Chief Named After ‘Training’”. Azatutyun, October 5, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32624669.html
• Buniatian, Heghine. “EU Foreign Ministers Approve Expansion of Border Monitoring Mission in Armenia”. Azatutyun, November 13, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32683155.html
• Christian, Gina. “Ancient Christian Enclave Faces ‘Genocide by Starvation,’ Says Armenian Catholic Bishop”. CNEWA, September 11, 2023, https://cnewa.org/ca/ancient-christian-enclave-faces-genocide-by-starvation- says-armenian-catholic-bishop/
• DePencier, Fin. “Pashinyan Says Armenians Should Stay in Karabakh”. Eurasianet, September 22, 2023, https://eurasianet.org/pashinyan-says-armenians-should-stay-in-karabakh
• Elena Teslova, “Armenian, Azerbaijani, Russian Foreign Ministers Discuss Karabakh Settlement”. Anadolu Agency, July 25, 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/armenian-azerbaijani-russian-foreign-ministers-discuss-karabakh-settlement/2954256
• Ghazanchyan, Siranush. “Armenian PM, Head of US Department of State’s Sanctions Coordination Office Discuss Regional and İnternational Processes”. Public Radio of Armenia, June 29, 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/06/29/armenian-pm-head-of-us-department-of-states-sanctions-coordination-office-discuss-regional-and-international-processes/
• Ghazanchyan, Siranush. “Azerbaijan Accuses US of Bias, Refuses to Participate in a Meeting with Armenian FM in Washington”. Public Radio of Armenia, November 16, 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/11/16/azerbaijan-accuses-us-of-bias-refuses-to-participate-in-a-meeting-with-armenian-fm/
• Ghazanchyan, Siranush. “Head of US Sanctions Coordination Office, Ambassador James C. O’Brien Visits Armenia”. Public Radio of Armenia, June 29, 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/06/29/head-of-us-sanctions-coordination-office-ambassador-james-c-obrien-visits-armenia/
• Ghazanchyan, Siranush. “New Round of Talks Postponed at the Request of Azerbaijan – Armenia MFA”. Public Radio of Armenia, June 8, 2023, https://en.armradio.am/2023/06/08/new-round-of-talks-postponed-at-the-request-of-azerbaijani-sidd-armenia-mfa/
• Guldogan, Diyar. “Armenian Premier Pashinyan Extends Congratulations on Turkish President Erdogan’s Victory”. Anadolu Ajansı, May 28, 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/armenianpremier-pashinyan-extends-congratulations-on-turkish-president-erdogans-victory/2908381
• Hovsepian, Tigran. “French Aid Convoy Barred From Entering Karabakh”. Azatutyun, August 20, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32571631.html
• Khulian, Artak. “Former Armenian Defense Chief To Remain In Jail”. Azatutyun, August 30, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32571274.html
• Minoyan, Hoory. “French Weapons Arrive in Armenia through Georgia”. The Armenian Weekly, November 13, 2023, https://armenianweekly.com/2023/11/15/french-weapons-arrive-in-armenia-through-georgia/
• Nane Shakiyan, “Armenia Building Checkpoint on Turkish Border”. Azatutyun, July 20, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32512161.html
• Osborn, Andrew. “Armenian PM Says Depending Solely on Russia for Security was ‘Strategic Mistake’”. Reuters, September 3, 2023, https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/armenian-pm-says-depending-solely-russia-security-was-strategic-mistake-2023-09-03/
• Teslova, Elena. “Russia Warns Armenia Against ‘Trying to Sit on Two Chairs’”. Anadolu Ajansı, November 16, 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/russia-warns-armenia-against-trying-to-sit-on-twochairs-/3055192
• Zargarian, Robert. “Armenian Task Force To Explore Nuclear Plant Options”. Azatutyun, June 8, 2023, https://www.azatutyun.am/a/32450621.html
• Zohrabov, Farid. “Meeting Between Azerbaijan, Karabakh Armenians in Yevlakh Underway - First Footage”. Trend News Agency, September 21, 2023, https://en.trend.az/azerbaijan/politics/3800703.html