KIRGIZİSTAN’DA DIŞ TİCARETİN EKONOMİK BÜYÜMEYE ETKİLERİ

Year 2014, Issue: 63, 12 - 18, 01.05.2014

Damira Baygonuşova , Nurlan Atabaev Junus Ganiev

Abstract

This study analyzed the impact of export and import to GDP in Kyrgyzstan by using regression analysis with annual data for the period of 1998-2012 divided in commodity groups. The impact of raw materials’, energy sources’, consumer goods’, capital goods’ and intermediate goods’ foreign trade were analyzed individually. The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between import of intermediate goods, consumer goods and GDP, and a negative correlation between investment goods’ import and GDP. On the other hand, positive, statistically significant relationship was found between export of intermediate goods, raw materials, capital goods and GDP. These results show that current Kyrgyz economy is similar to economy with “Dutch disease”. To get out of this situation we need to define relatively advantageous agricultural and industrial sectors, and to conduct the necessary policies for their development.

Keywords

ihracat, ithalat, gayri safi yurtiçi hasıla, Kırgızistan

IMPACT OF FOREIGN TRADE TO ECONOMIC GROWTH IN KYRGYZSTAN

Abstract

This study analyzed the impact of export and import to GDP in Kyrgyzstan by using regression analysis with annual data for the period of 1998-2012 divided in commodity groups. The impact of raw materials’, energy sources’, consumer goods’, capital goods’ and intermediate goods’ foreign trade were analyzed individually. The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between import of intermediate goods, consumer goods and GDP, and a negative correlation between investment goods’ import and GDP. On the other hand, positive, statistically significant relationship was found between export of intermediate goods, raw materials, capital goods and GDP. These results show that current Kyrgyz economy is similar to economy with “Dutch disease”. To get out of this situation we need to define relatively advantageous agricultural and industrial sectors, and to conduct the necessary policies for their development.

Keywords

export, import, gross domestic product, Kyrgyzstan

ВЛИЯНИЕ ВНЕШНЕЙ ТОРГОВЛИ НА ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКИЙ РОСТ КЫРГЫЗСТАНА

Abstract

В статье приведен анализ влияния экспорта и импорта на ВВП в Кыргызстане. Использован регрессионный анализ с годовыми данными за период 1998-2012. Результаты показали, что существует положительная связь между импортом промежуточных товаров, товаров народного потребления и ВВП, а также отрицательная корреляция между импортом инвестиционных товаров и ВВП. С другой стороны, положительная, статистически значимая связь была обнаружена между экспортом промежуточных товаров, сырья, средств производства и ВВП. Эти результаты показывают, что нынешняя экономика страны поражена «голландской болезнью». Для оздоровления экономики предлагается развивать приоритетные секторы реальной экономики.

Keywords

экспорт, импорт, валовой внутренний продукт, Кыргызстан

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