Investigating the Role of Bias Correction Methods and Climate Models on Water Budget of Büyük Menderes Basin

Year 2023, Volume: 27 Issue: 5, 975 - 986, 18.10.2023

Zülküf İbrahim Erkol , İrem Daloglu Çetinkaya

https://doi.org/10.16984/saufenbilder.1125240

Abstract

Büyük Menderes Basin is one of the largest basins in Turkey, with almost half of the basin area utilized for agricultural purposes. The amount of water allocated to the agricultural areas in the basin corresponds to 80% of water use in the watershed. Hence, the impact of climate change on the water supply in the Büyük Menderes Basin will be significant for the basin. In this study, we model the effects of climate change on the water budget (water supply and demand balance) of the Büyük Menderes Basin using the Water and Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool. Future precipitation, temperature, and evaporation data for the basin are attained from outputs of the HadGEM2-ES global circulation model (GCM), along with CNRM-CM5.1 and GFDL-ESM2M regional circulation models (RCM) for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Subsequently, the study applies different statistical bias correction methods (Linear Scaling (LS), Distribution Mapping (DM), Local Precipitation Scaling (PLIS), and Power Transformation of Precipitation (PTP) for raw outputs of GCMs and RCMs and analyzes the changes in outcomes of projected climate data and the impact of changes on the hydrology of the basin using the WEAP model. For this analysis, calibrated and validated WEAP model for the 12 reservoirs of Büyük Menderes Basin is used to understand the impact of different bias correction methods on reservoir levels.

Keywords

Büyük Menderes Basin, climate models, WEAP, bias correction methods, water budget

Thanks

The authors would like to Onur Cem Yoloğlu and Kamil Çöllü for their support in processing climate data.

References

• S. Hagemann, C. Chen, J. O. Haerter, J. Heinke, D. Gerten, C. Piani, "Impact of a statistical bias correction on the projected hydrological changes obtained from three gcms and two hydrology models," Journal of Hydrometeorology, vol. 12, no. 4, pp. 556–578, 2011.
• H. Chen, C.-Y. Xu, S. Guo, "Comparison and evaluation of multiple GCMS, statistical downscaling and hydrological models in the study of climate change impacts on runoff," Journal of Hydrology, vol. 434-435, pp. 36–45, 2012.
• T. Olsson, M. Kämäräinen, D. Santos, T. Seitola, H. Tuomenvirta, R. Haavisto, W. Lavado-Casimiro, "Downscaling climate projections for the Peruvian coastal Chancay-Huaral Basin to support river discharge modeling with Weap," Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, vol. 13, pp. 26–42, 2017.
• S. Yuan, S. M. Quiring, M. M. Kalcic, A. M. Apostel, G. R. Evenson, H. A. Kujawa, "Optimizing Climate Model Selection for Hydrological Modeling: A case study in the Maumee River basin using the Swat," Journal of Hydrology, vol. 588, pp. 1–14, 2020.
• F. Driouech, K. ElRhaz, W. Moufouma-Okia, K. Arjdal, S. Balhane, "Assessing future changes of climate extreme events in the Cordex-MENA region using regional climate Model Aladin-Climate," Earth Systems and Environment, vol. 4, no. 3, pp. 477–492, 2020.
• M. Rummukainen, "Added value in regional climate modeling," WIREs Climate Change, vol. 7, no. 1, pp. 145–159, 2015.
• B. Rockel, "The Regional Downscaling Approach: A brief history and recent advances," Current Climate Change Reports, vol. 1, no. 1, pp. 22–29, 2015.
• S. Shamshirband, A. Mosavi, Narjes Nabipour, K.-wing Chau, "Application of ERA5 and MENA simulations to predict offshore wind energy potential," arXiv, 2020.
• R. L. Wilby, T. M. Wigley, D. Conway, P. D. Jones, B. C. Hewitson, J. Main, D. S. Wilks, "Statistical downscaling of General Circulation Model Output: A comparison of methods," Water Resources Research, vol. 34, no. 11, pp. 2995–3008, 1998.
• F. Dierickx, "Copernicus Climate Change Programme: User Learning Service content," Bookdown, 28-Apr-2019. [Online]. Available: https://bookdown.org/floriandierickx/bookdown-demo/. [Accessed: 28-May-2022].
• H. J. Fowler, S. Blenkinsop, C. Tebaldi, "Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 27, no. 12, pp. 1547–1578, 2007.
• T. Lee, V. P. Singh, "Statistical downscaling for hydrological and environmental applications," in Statistical downscaling for Hydrological and environmental applications, Boca Raton, FL, US: CRC Press, Taylor & Francis Group, 2019, pp. 39–50.
• S. Agarwal, J. P. Patil, V. C. Goyal, A. Singh, "Assessment of water supply–demand using water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model for Ur River watershed, Madhya Pradesh, India," Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series A, vol. 100, no. 1, pp. 21–32, 2018.
• H. Ayt Ougougdal, M. Yacoubi Khebiza, M. Messouli, A. Lachir, "Assessment of future water demand and supply under IPCC climate change and socio-economic scenarios, using a combination of models in Ourika watershed, High Atlas, Morocco," Water, vol. 12, no. 6, pp. 1–18, 2020.
• B. Höllermann, S. Giertz, B. Diekkrüger, “Benin 2025—balancing future water availability and demand using the WEAP ‘water evaluation and planning’ system,” Water Resources Management, vol. 24, no. 13, pp. 3591–3613, 2010.
• J. Gao, P. Christensen, W. Li, "Application of the WEAP model in Strategic Environmental Assessment: Experiences from a case study in an arid/semi-arid area in China," Journal of Environmental Management, vol. 198, pp. 363–371, 2017.
• DSİ, “Toprak ve Su Kaynakları,” Devlet Su İşleri Genel Müdürlüğü, 2010. [Online]. Available: http://www.dsi.gov.tr/topraksu.htm. [Accessed: 28-May-2022].
• T.C. Çevre ve Şehircilik Bakanlığı Çevre Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü. (2016). Büyük Menderes Havzası Kirlilik Önleme Eylem Planı. Ankara.
• Büke, A., Gültekin, M., Aksoy, M., Dıvrak, A., Göcek, B. B., Berke, Ç, Çeşmeci, H., 2013. Büyük Menderes Havza Atlası.
• TÜBİTAK, “Büyük Menderes Havzası Eylem Plan Raporu,” Tarım ve Orman Bakanlığı Su Yönetimi Genel Müdürlüğü, 2010. [Online]. Available: https://www.tarimorman.gov.tr/SYGM. [Accessed: 28-May-2022].
• Z. İ. Erkol, "Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply and Demand Balance of Büyük Menderes Basin," thesis, 2020.
• D. Yates, J. Sieber, D. Purkey, A. Huber-Lee, "Weap21—a demand-, priority-, and preference-driven water planning model," Water International, vol. 30, no. 4, pp. 487–500, 2005.
• L. Yang, M. Hao, Q. Cao, K. Liu, L. Xiao, L. Pei, X. Wu, "Quantitative impact and research on Water Supply Management and demand in Beijing under the WEAP model," IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, vol. 514, no. 2, 2020.
• J. Sieber, D. Purkey, WEAP-Water Evaluation and Planning System: User Guide for WEAP. Stockholm Environment Institute-US Center, Somerville, 2015
• R. A. Pielke, "Examples of mesoscale models," International Geophysics, pp. 427–500, 2013.
• Z. Xu, Y. Han, Z. Yang, "Dynamical downscaling of regional climate: A review of methods and limitations," Science China Earth Sciences, vol. 62, no. 2, pp. 365–375, 2018.
• S. Trzaska, E. Schnarr, "A Review of Downscaling Methods for Climate Change Projections," Ciesin, 2014. [Online]. Available: http://www.ciesin.org/documents/Downscaling_CLEARED_000.pdf. [Accessed: 28-May-2022].
• M. A. Faiz, D. Liu, Q. Fu, M. Li, F. Baig, A. A. Tahir, M. I. Khan, T. Li, S. Cui, "Performance evaluation of hydrological models using ensemble of general circulation models in the northeastern China," Journal of Hydrology, vol. 565, pp. 599–613, 2018.
• M. Luo, T. Liu, F. Meng, Y. Duan, A. Frankl, A. Bao, P. De Maeyer, "Comparing bias correction methods used in downscaling precipitation and temperature from regional climate models: A case study from the Kaidu River basin in western China," water, vol. 10, no. 8, p. 1046, 2018.
• M. Mendez, B. Maathuis, D. Hein-Griggs, L.-F. Alvarado-Gamboa, "Performance evaluation of bias correction methods for climate change monthly precipitation projections over Costa Rica," water, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 1–34, 2020.
• M. Sharma, P. Coulibaly, Y. Dibike, "Assessing the need for downscaling RCM data for Hydrologic Impact Study," Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, vol. 16, no. 6, pp. 534–539, 2011.
• M. Shrestha, S. C. Acharya, P. K. Shrestha, "Bias correction of climate models for hydrological modelling - are simple methods still useful?," Meteorological Applications, vol. 24, no. 3, pp. 531–539, 2017.
• A. H. Azman, N. N. Tukimat, M. A. Malek, "Analysis of linear scaling method in downscaling precipitation and temperature," Water Resources Management, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 171–179, 2021.
• A. Casanueva, S. Herrera, J. Fernández, J. M. Gutiérrez, “Towards a fair comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling in the framework of the euro-CORDEX initiative,” Climatic Change, vol. 137, no. 3-4, pp. 411–426, 2016.
• R. Mahmood, S. Jia, N. Tripathi, S. Shrestha, "Precipitation extended linear scaling method for correcting GCM precipitation and its evaluation and implication in the transboundary jhelum river basin," Atmosphere, vol. 9, no. 5, pp. 1–15, 2018.
• M. Nasseri, G. Schoups, M. Taheri, "A spatiotemporal framework to calibrate high‐resolution global monthly precipitation products: An application to the Urmia Lake Watershed in Iran," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 42, no. 4, pp. 2169–2194, 2021.
• G. H. Fang, J. Yang, Y. N. Chen, C. Zammit, "Comparing bias correction methods in downscaling meteorological variables for a hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 19, no. 6, pp. 2547–2559, 2015.
• AgriMetsoft, “AgriMetSoft ,” Agricultural and meteorological software. [Online]. Available: https://agrimetsoft.com/Default. [Accessed: 28-May-2022].
• H. Rathjens , K. Bieger , R. Srinivasan, I. Chaubey, J. G. Arnold, "CMhyd User Manual," Soil & Water Assessment Tool, 2016. [Online]. Available: https://swat.tamu.edu/media/115265/bias_cor_man.pdf. [Accessed: 28-May-2022].
• Fang, G. H., Yang, J., Chen, Y. N., & Zammit, C.. Comparing bias correction methods in Downscaling meteorological variables for a hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19(6), 2547-2559, 2015.
• R. Leander, T. A. Buishand, "Resampling of regional climate model output for the simulation of Extreme River flows," Journal of Hydrology, vol. 332, no. 3-4, pp. 487–496, 2007.
• W. Terink, R. T. Hurkmans, P. J. Torfs, R. Uijlenhoet, "Evaluation of a bias correction method applied to downscaled precipitation and temperature reanalysis data for the Rhine Basin," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 14, no. 4, pp. 687–703, 2010.
• J. Schmidli, C. Frei, P. L. Vidale, "Downscaling from GCM precipitation: A benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods," International Journal of Climatology, vol. 26, no. 5, pp. 679–689, 2006.
• X. Yuan, "An experimental seasonal hydrological forecasting system over the Yellow River basin – part 2: The added value from climate forecast models," Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, vol. 20, no. 6, pp. 2453–2466, 2016.
• T. Zhao, J. C. Bennett, Q. J. Wang, A. Schepen, A. W. Wood, D. E. Robertson, M.-H. Ramos, "How suitable is quantile mapping for postprocessing GCM precipitation forecasts?," Journal of Climate, vol. 30, no. 9, pp. 3185–3196, 2017.