Türkiye’de İnşaat Sektörü, İstihdam ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin İncelenmesi: GMM Yaklaşımı

Year 2023, Volume: 26 Issue: 2, 491 - 503, 30.11.2023

Ayşe Özge Artekin

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.1382436

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın temel amacı Türkiye için 2005-2023 yılları arasında çeyreklik veriler temel alınarak inşaat sektörü, istihdam ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiyi Zivot-Andrews (ZA) birim kök, Phillips-Perron (PP) birim kök, ve GMM testleri uygulanarak ele almaktır. Ayrıca Granger nedensellik testi kullanılarak değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin gücü ve yönü hesaplanmıştır. Zivot-Andrews (ZA) birim kök ve Phillips-Perron (PP) birim kök testleri sonuçlarına göre I(1) düzeyinde tüm seriler durağan olarak tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, GMM analizi sonuçları, Türkiye için 2005'ten 2023'e kadar istihdamın ekonomik büyümeyi etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır. Granger nedensellik testi sonuçlarına göre ise gecikme uzunluğu 2 iken hem inşaat sektörü ekonomik büyümenin hem de ekonomik büyüme inşaat sektörünün Granger nedenidir. Başka bir ifadeyle değişkenler arası kısa vadeli bir ilişkinin yanı sıra aralarında çift yönlü bir ilişki de vardır. Aynı şekilde istidam ile ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişkiye bakıldığında hem kısa vadeli ilişki hem de birbirleri arasında çift yönlü bir ilişki mevcuttur. İnşaat sektörü ile istihdam arasındaki ilişki gözlemlendiğinde ise hem birbirleri arasında kısa vadeli ilişkinin varlığından söz edilebilir hem de aralarında çift yönlü bir ilişki vardır. Sonuç olarak, Türkiye’de iyi planlanmış kamu harcamaları ve kamu inşaat işlerine uygulanan vergilerle ilgili uygulanan akılcı maliye politikaları istihdamı teşvik edecek ve inşaat faaliyetlerini istikrara kavuşturacaktır. Türkiye’de hükümet ve politika yapıcıların uygulayacağı bu adımlar sayesinde daha kalıcı hale getirilen inşaat faaliyetlerinin oluşturacağı istihdam alanları beraberinde istikrarlı bir ekonomik büyümeyi de destekleyecektir.

Keywords

İnşaat Sektörü, İstihdam, Ekonomik Büyüme, Granger Nedensellik Testi, GMM Testi

Examining the Relationship Between the Construction Sector, Employment and Economic Growth in Türkiye: GMM Approach

Abstract

The main purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between the construction sector, employment and economic growth for Türkiye, based on quarterly data between 2005 and 2023, by applying Zivot-Andrews (ZA) unit root, Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root and GMM tests. Additionally, the strength and direction of the relationship between the variables are calculated by employing the Granger causality test. In addition, the strength and direction of the relationship between the variables are calculated by using the Granger causality test. According to the results of both Zivot-Andrews (ZA) unit root and Phillips-Perron (PP) unit root tests, all series are determined as stationary at the I(1) level. Additionally, GMM analysis results reveal that employment affects economic growth for Türkiye from 2005 to 2023. According to the Granger causality test results, when the lag length is 2, both the construction sector is the Granger cause of economic growth and the economic growth is the construction industry's Granger cause. In other words, there is both a short-term relationship between the variables and a two-way relationship between them. Likewise, when looking at the relationship between employment and economic growth, there is both a short-term relationship and a bidirectional relationship between each other. Finally, when the relationship between the construction industry and employment is observed, it can be said that there is a short-term relationship between them and there is a two-way relationship between them. According to these empirical findings, well-planned public expenditures in Türkiye and rational fiscal policies regarding taxes applied to public construction works will promote employment and stabilize construction activities. Thus, the employment areas created by construction activities which have become more permanent through these steps to be implemented by the government and policy makers in Türkiye will also support a stable economic growth.

Keywords

Construction Sector, Employment, Economic Growth, Granger Causality Test, GMM Test

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