Küresel Finansal Stresin Türk Devletlerinin Ekonomileri Üzerindeki Etkisi

Year 2024, Volume: 27 Issue: 1, 18 - 30, 30.04.2024

Ali Özer , Serkan Unal , İstemi Çömlekçi

https://doi.org/10.29249/selcuksbmyd.1319691

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Türk Devletleri Teşkilatı üyesi olan Türkiye, Kazakistan, Azerbaycan, Özbekistan ve Kırgızistan devletlerinde küresel finansal stresin ekonomik etkileri araştırılmıştır. Bu araştırma ile öncelikle Türki cumhuriyetlerin global ekonomiye ne ölçüde entegre olduklarını ve global mali strese ne derece duyarlı oldukları analiz edilmiştir. İkinci olarak Türki cumhuriyetlerin kendi arasında da ekonomik direnç farklılıkları analiz edilebilmiştir. Üçüncü olarak hem ekonomik büyüklük hem dış ticaret verileri bağımlı değişken olarak kullanılmış ve bu sayede farklı boyutlarıyla finansal stresin etkisini tayin etmek mümkün olmuştur. Küresel finansal stresin göstergesi olarak St. Louis Finansal Stres Endeksi kullanılmış; ekonomik göstergeler olarak ise gayri safi yurt içi hasıladaki değişim, ithalattaki değişim ve ihracattaki değişim kullanılmıştır. Çalışma dönemi olarak St. Louis Finansal Stres Endeksi’nin hesaplanma başlangıç tarihi olan 1993 ile 2022 yıllar arası belirlenmiştir. Araştırmada EKK, GMM ve ARDL yöntemleriyle oluşturulmuş modellerden faydalanılmıştır. Çalışma döneminde GSYİH ve ihracatta en fazla yüzdesel artış Azerbaycan’da gerçekleşirken ithalatta en yüksek artış Kırgızistan’da gerçekleşmiştir. Araştırmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre küresel finansal stresin Türk cumhuriyetlerinin temel ekonomik performansında negatif etkiye sahip olduğu görülmektedir. Araştırma sonuçları finansal stresin özellikle GSYİH üzerinde negatif etkisi olduğunu, ithalat ve ihracat üzerindeki etkisinin ise sınırlı olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Küresel finansal stres, Turki Cumhuriyetler, Gsyih, İhracat, İthalat

The Effect of Global Financial Stress on The Economies of Turkish States

Abstract

In this study, the economic effects of global financial stress in the states of Turkey, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan, and Kyrgyzstan, which are members of the Organization of Turkic States, were investigated. With this research, firstly, the extent to which the Turkic Republics are integrated into the global economy and how sensitive they are to global financial stress has been analyzed. Secondly, the differences in the economic resistance of the Turkic republics among themselves could be analyzed. Thirdly, both economic size and foreign trade data were used as dependent variables, thus it was possible to determine the effect of financial stress with its different dimensions. As an indicator of global financial stress, St. Louis financial stress index was used, and the change in gross domestic product, change in imports, and change in exports were used as economic indicators. As a research period, St. Louis financial stress index was calculated between 1993 and 2022. The research used models created by Least Squares, GMM, and ARDL methods. During the study period, the highest proportional increase in GDP and exports occurred in Azerbaijan, while the highest increase in imports occurred in Kyrgyzstan. According to the findings obtained from the study, it is seen that global financial stress has a negative effect on the economic performance of the Turkic Republics. Research results show that financial stress has a negative impact, especially on GDP, and its effect on imports and exports is limited.

Keywords

Global financial stress, Turkic Republics, GDP, Exports, Imports

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