OECD ÜLKELERİNDE PETROL FİYATLARININ EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: PANEL NEDENSELLİK ÇALIŞMASI

Year 2018, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 28 - 43, 05.07.2018

Hilal Gündoğan , Dilek Tok

Abstract

Petrol, ithalatçı ülkeler için ciddi bir
maliyet unsuru iken petrol ihracatçısı ülkeler için önemli bir gelir
kaynağıdır. Bu amaçla petrol ihraç eden 22 OECD[1]
ülkesinde 1995-2016 yılları arası yıllık veriler kullanılarak ham petrol varil
ihracat fiyatının ekonomik büyüme göstergesi olarak alınan GSMH ile
aralarındaki uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmiştir. Uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı
Pedroni (1999), Kao (1999) ve Johansen Fisher eşbütünleşme analizi yardımıyla test
edilmiş ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif ilişki olduğu görülmüştür.
Daha sonra ekonomik büyüme ve ham petrol varil ihracat fiyatı arasındaki uzun
dönemli ilişkiyle ilgili çıkarımda bulunabilmek için FMOLS ve DOLS yönetimi
uygulanmış ve katsayı her iki yöntemde sırasıyla 0.32 ve 0.30 olarak tahmin
edilmiştir.

Keywords

Ekonomik Büyüme, Panel Eşbütünleşme, OECD, Petrol İhracat Fiyatı, Panel Eşbütünleşme

The Impact of Oil Prices on Economic Growth in OECD Countries: Panel Cointegration Application

Abstract

While oil is a serious
cost factor for oil importing countries, it is an important source of income
for oil exporting countries. For this purpose, the long-term relationship
between the GNP and the crude oil prices, which were taken as the indicators of
economic growth, were analyzed using the annual data of 22 OECD countries in 22
exporting petroleum. For this purpose, the long-term relationship between the
crude oil barrel export price and the GDP, which is considered as an indicator
of economic growth, was analyzed using the annual data in the 22 OECD
countries. The presence of long-term relationship was tested by Pedroni (1999),
Kao (1999) and Johanser Fisher by cointegration analysis and a statistically
significant and positive correlation was found. Then, FMOLS and DOLS management
were applied in order to infer the long-term relationship between economic
growth and crude oil barrel export price and the coefficient was estimated to
be 0.32 and 0.30, respectively, in both methods.

Keywords

OECD, Price of oil import, Economic Growth, Panel Cointegration

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