Modeling of wind speed using differential evolution: Istanbul case

Year 2024, Volume: 42 Issue: 3, 642 - 652, 12.06.2024

Emre Koçak , Volkan Soner Özsoy , H. Hasan Örkcü

Abstract

Over the years, increasing energy demands with the growth of the population and the development of technology have caused more fossil fuel consumption. Besides, environmental pollution and climate change, which are vital importance for humanity, are encountered. In order to avoid these dangerous situations, people have started to turn to clean and renewable energy sources such as wind energy. Due to the rapid development of such situations, it is very important to obtain information on the determination of the regions where wind energy facility will be installed and the characteristics of the wind speed. Wind power estimation can be made through various statistical distributions used to explain the characteristics of wind speed data. Rayleigh, Weibull, Nakagami, Gamma, Logistic, Loglogistic, Lognormal and Burr Type XII distributions, which are frequently used in the wind energy literature, are discussed in this study and the performances of the specified distributions are compared through the data sets obtained from the stations in Istanbul from Marmara region. One of the most preferred methods in estimation problems is the maximum likelihood method, and a differential evolution algorithm is proposed for ML estimation of the parameters of the distributions examined in the study. In addition, various model selection criteria are also utilized to determine the distribution that best fits the wind speed data.

Keywords

Differential Evolution, Maximum Likelihood, Wind Energy

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