Uluslararası Göçün Dış Ticaret Üzerine Etkisi: Türkiye İçin Ampirik Bir Analiz

Year 2019, Volume: 28 Issue: 2, 141 - 163, 31.10.2019

Gökhan Demirtaş , Şule Yüksel Çakırca

https://doi.org/10.26650/siyasal.2019.28.2.0055

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’de uluslararası göçün dış ticaret üzerine etkisini incelemektir. Çalışma, 2013-2016 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin göç aldığı 125 ülke ile dış ticareti üzerine odaklanmaktadır. Bu amaçla panel veri yöntemi kullanılarak tahmin edilen modeller, OECD üyesi ülkeler ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler olmak üzere iki gruba ayrılmıştır. Modellerde yer alan değişkenler, genişletilmiş çekim modeline göre belirlenmiştir. Çalışmanın iki temel sonucu bulunmaktadır. İlk olarak hem OECD ülkeleri hem de gelişmekte olan ülkeler için oluşturulan modellerde uluslararası göçün ihracat, ithalat ve dış ticaret üzerine etkisi pozitiftir. İkinci olarak Türkiye’de uluslararası göçün ithalat üzerindeki pozitif etkisi, ihracat üzerindeki etkisinden daha büyüktür. Bu sonuç, Türkiye’de tercih etkisinin ağ etkisinden daha baskın olduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca Türkiye’ye daha nitelikli iş gücüne sahip göçmenlerin gelmesini özendirecek politikalara ihtiyaç vardır. 

Keywords

Uluslararası göç, Dış ticaret, Panel veri analizi, Genişletilmiş çekim modeli

Supporting Institution

Bu makale, Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinatörlüğü tarafından 18.KARİYER.31 numaralı “Dış Ticaretin Belirleyicisi Olarak Uluslararası Göç: Türkiye Üzerine Panel Veri Analizi” başlığı ile Kariyer Destek Projesi olarak desteklenmiştir.

Project Number

18.KARİYER.31 numaralı

The Effect of International Migration on Foreign Trade: An Empirical Analysis for Turkey

Abstract

The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of international migration on foreign trade in Turkey. The study focuses on the trade of Turkey with 125 countries during the period from 2013 to 2016. For this purpose, the models estimated by using panel data method are divided into two groups: OECD member countries and developing countries. The variables in the models are determined by the augmented gravity model. There are two main results of the study. First, the effects of international migration on exports, imports and foreign trade are positive in the models for both OECD countries and developing countries. Second, the positive impact of international migration on imports is greater than the impact on exports in Turkey. This result indicates that the preference effect is more dominant than the network effect in Turkey. There is also a need for policies to encourage more qualified immigrants to come to Turkey. 

Keywords

International migration, Trade, Panel data analysis, Augmented gravity model

Project Number

18.KARİYER.31 numaralı

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