Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Döviz Kuru Rejimi Tercihi: Yerel Sorunlara Global Çözümler

Year 2008, Volume: 8 Issue: 8, - , 01.12.2008

Rüstem Yanar

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, son yıllarda sıkça tartışılan döviz kuru rejimlerindeki “iki kutupluluk teorisi”nin gelişmekte olan ülkeler açısından değerlendirmesi yapılacaktır. Bu hipoteze göre, sermaye hareketlerinin serbestleşmesi ile birlikte ülkeler sabit döviz kuru veya dalgalı döviz kuru arasında tercih yapmak durumundadırlar. Ara rejimler ise devam ettirilemez. Bu hipotez gelişmiş ülkeler açısından bakıldığında doğrulanabilir. Günümüzde gelişmiş ülkeler ya parasal birlik ülkeleridir veya dalgalı kur uygulamaktadırlar. Ancak gelişmekte olan ülkeler gizli veya açık ara rejimleri uygulamaya devam etmektedirler. Bu çalışmada gelişmekte olan ülkeler kategorisindeki yirmi beş ülkenin 1973 sonrası döviz kuru tercihleri incelenmiştir. Bu ülkeler finansal entegrasyon ile birlikte döviz kuru rejimlerinde büyük ölçüde dalgalı kuru tercihe yönelmişlerdir. Ancak bu ülkeler gerek ekonomik ve finansal özellikleri gerekse “asli günah” ve “dalgalanma korkusu” nedeniyle, ara rejimleri uygulamaya devam etmektedirler.

Keywords

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