Enflasyon-Faiz Oranı Takası: Fisher Hipotezi Bağlamında Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Dinamik En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi

Year 2016, Volume: 24 Issue: 27, 33 - 56, 22.01.2016

Merter Akıncı , Ömer Yılmaz

https://doi.org/10.17233/se.81444

Cited By: 18

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, enflasyonun faiz oranı üzerindeki etkilerini doğrudan ve altı kontrol değişkeni yardımıyla dolaylı olarak Türkiye ekonomisinde 1980-2012 dönemi için test edebilmek amacıyla Dinamik En Küçük Kareler (DOLS) analizi kullanılmıştır. İlk olarak, ilgili değişkenlere uygulanan Johansen-Juselius eşbütünleşme testi sonucunda, uzun dönemli ilişkiler elde edilmiştir. Değişkenler arasında nedensellik ilişkilerini belirleyebilmek için Granger nedensellik testi uygulanmış ve beklentilerle uyumlu olan nedensellik ilişkilerinin varlığı kanıtlanmıştır. DOLS analizi tahmin sonuçları; enflasyon, cari denge, dış borç servisi, para arzı, döviz kuru ve ekonomik büyüme sürecinin faiz oranı üzerinde istatistiki bakımdan anlamlı etkiler yarattığını ortaya koymuştur.

Keywords

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