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Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2016, Volume: 24 Issue: 27, 121 - 138, 22.01.2016

Burcu Berke

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, AB-13’de 1970-2011 döneminde kamu borç stokunun artmasının büyüme oranını ne yönde etkilediği panel veri yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Literatürde “kamu borç stokunun GSYİH’ye oranının %90 eşik değerinin üzerinde iken büyüme oranının düştüğüne” işaret edilmektedir. Bu bulgu, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde mali istikrarsızlık konusuna dikkat çekilmesine yol açmıştır. Çalışmada, büyümeyi etkileyen kamu borç stoku değişkeni dışında diğer kontrol değişkenlerinin etkileri kontrol edildikten sonra AB-13’de kamu borcunun büyümeye etkisinin %90 eşik değerinin üzerinde negatif olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

-

References

  • Adam, C.S. & D.L. Bevan (2005), “Fiscal Deficits and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Public Economics, 89, 571-597.
  • Balassone, F. & M. Francese & A. Pace (2011), Public Debt and Economic Growth in Italy, <http://w3.uniroma1.it/ecspc/Balassone_Francese_Pace_draft_020911.pdf>, 06.11.2011.
  • Baltagi, B. (2004), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, New York: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Barrios, S. & S. Langedijk & L.R. Pench (2010), EU Fiscal Consolidation after the Financial Crisis: Lessons from Post Experiences, <http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node5593>, 12.09.2011.
  • Beck, N. & J.N. Katz (1995), “What to do (and not to do) With Time Series Cross-Section Data”, The American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634-347.
  • Bhattacharya, R. & B. Clements (2004), “Calculating the Benefits of Debt Relief”, Finance and Development, 12, 48-50.
  • Cecchetti, S.G. & M.S. Mohanty & F. Zampolli (2010), “The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications”, BIS Working Paper, 300, 1-22.
  • Checherita, C. & P. Rother (2010), “The Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 1237, 1-40.
  • Clements, B. & R. Bhattacharya & T.Q. Nguyen (2003), “External Debt, Public Investment and Growth in Low-Income Countries”, IMF Working Paper Series, 03/249, 1-24.
  • Chowdhury, A.R. (2001), “External Debt and Growth in Developing Countries, A Sensitivity and Casual Analysis”, WIDER Discussion Paper, 2001/95, 1-22.
  • Cohen, D. (1993), “Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980’s”, The American Economic Review, 83(3), 437-449.
  • Connolly, M. & J. Devereux (1995), “The Natural Real Exchange Rate”, the Fundamental Determinants of the Exchange Rate, Jerome Stein (ed.), Oxford University Press.
  • Cordella, T. & L.A. Ricci & M. Ruiz-Arranz (2005), “Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt Growth Link”, IMF Working Paper Series, 05/223, 1-55.
  • Cunningham, R.T. (1993), “The Effects of Debt Burden on Economic Growth in Heavily Indebted Developing Nations”, Journal of Economic Development, 18(1), 115-126.
  • Daud, S.N.M. & J.M. Podivinsky (2011), “Debt-Growth Nexus: A Spatial Econometrics Approach for Developing Countries”, Transition Studies Review, 1, 1-15.
  • Diamond, P.A. (1965), “National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model”, The American Economic Review, 55, 1126-1150.
  • Easterly, W.R. (2001), “Growth Implosions and Debt Explosions: Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises?”, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 1(1), 1-24.
  • Greenidge, K. & R. Craigwell & C. Thomas & L. Drakes (2012), “Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean”, IMF Working Paper, 12/157, 1-22.
  • Fasu, A.K. (1996), “The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Journal of Economic Development, 21(1), 93-118.
  • Hameed, A. & H. Ashraf & M.A. Chaudhory (2008), “External Debt and Its Impact on Economic and Business Growth in Pakistan”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 20, 132-140.
  • Irons, J. & J. Bivens (2010), “Government Debt and Economic Growth”, EPI Briefing Paper, Economic Policy Institute, July, 1-9.
  • Krueger, A.O. (1987), “Debt, Capital Flows and LDC Growth”, The American Economic Review, 77(2), 159-164.
  • Krugman, P. (1988), “Financing vs. Forgiving a Debt Overhang”, Journal of Development Economics, 29, 253-268.
  • Kumar, M.S. & J. Woo (2010), “Public Debt and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, 174, 1-46.
  • Mbire, B. & M. Atingi (1997), “Growth and Foreign Debt: the Ugandan Experience”, <http://www.aercafrico.org/DOCUMENTS/RPGG.PDF>, 14.02.2012.
  • Pattillo, C. & H. Poirson & L. Ricci (2004), “What are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?”, IMF Working Paper, 04/15, 1-33.
  • Presbitero, A.F. (2005), The Debt-Growth Nexus: An Empirical Analysis, <http://www.unicott.it/convegno/open_ekonomy/Allegati/debt_growth_presbitero.pdf>, 02.08.2011.
  • Presbitero, A.F. (2008), “The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment”, The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2, 1-28.
  • Ramakrishna, G. (2002), “External Debt of Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis of Debt and Growth”, Journal of Business and Public Affairs, 29-35.
  • Reinhart, C.M. & K.S. Rogoff (2010), “Growth in a Time of Debt”, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 100, 573-578.
  • Sachs, J. (1989), “The Debt Overhang of Developing Countries”, in: Debt Stabilization and Development: Essays in Memory of Carlos Diaz Alejandro, ed. by Guillermo Calvo and others (Oxford: Basil Blackwell).
  • Schalarek, A. (2004), Debt and Economic Growth in Developing Industrial Countries, <http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP05_34.pdf>, 30.12.2013.
  • Sen, S. & K.M. Kasibhotlo & D.B. Stewart (2007), “Debt Overhang and Economic Growth-the Asian and the Latin American Experiences”, Economic Systems, 31, 3-11.
  • Sıddıqui, R. & A. Malik (2001), “Debt and Economic Growth in South Asia”, The Pakistan Development Review, 40(4), 677-688.
  • Weng, C.K. & E.Y. Meu & L.K. Hoang & T.K. Ean & T.W. Shun (2011), Debt, Budget Deficit and Economic Growth of Malaysia, <http://eprints.utar.edu.my/282/1/FE-2011-0803715.pdf>, 27.02.2011.

Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2016, Volume: 24 Issue: 27, 121 - 138, 22.01.2016

Burcu Berke

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, AB-13’de 1970-2011 döneminde kamu borç stokunun artmasının büyüme yönde etkilediği panel veri yöntemiyle incelenmektedir. Literatürde “kamu borç stokunun GSYİH’ye oranının %90 eşik değerinin üzerinde iken büyüme oranının düştüğüne” işaret edilmektedir. Bu bulgu, gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde mali istikrarsızlık konusuna dikkat çekilmesine yol açmıştır. Çalışmada, büyümeyi etkileyen kamu borç stoku değişkeni dışında diğer kontrol değişkenlerinin etkileri kontrol edildikten sonra AB-13’de kamu borcunun büyümeye etkisinin %90 eşik değerinin üzerinde negatif olduğu tespit edilmiştir.

Keywords

-

References

  • Adam, C.S. & D.L. Bevan (2005), “Fiscal Deficits and Growth in Developing Countries”, Journal of Public Economics, 89, 571-597.
  • Balassone, F. & M. Francese & A. Pace (2011), Public Debt and Economic Growth in Italy, <http://w3.uniroma1.it/ecspc/Balassone_Francese_Pace_draft_020911.pdf>, 06.11.2011.
  • Baltagi, B. (2004), Econometric Analysis of Panel Data, Third Edition, New York: John Wiley and Sons.
  • Barrios, S. & S. Langedijk & L.R. Pench (2010), EU Fiscal Consolidation after the Financial Crisis: Lessons from Post Experiences, <http://www.voxeu.org/index.php?q=node5593>, 12.09.2011.
  • Beck, N. & J.N. Katz (1995), “What to do (and not to do) With Time Series Cross-Section Data”, The American Political Science Review, 89(3), 634-347.
  • Bhattacharya, R. & B. Clements (2004), “Calculating the Benefits of Debt Relief”, Finance and Development, 12, 48-50.
  • Cecchetti, S.G. & M.S. Mohanty & F. Zampolli (2010), “The Future of Public Debt: Prospects and Implications”, BIS Working Paper, 300, 1-22.
  • Checherita, C. & P. Rother (2010), “The Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area”, European Central Bank Working Paper Series, 1237, 1-40.
  • Clements, B. & R. Bhattacharya & T.Q. Nguyen (2003), “External Debt, Public Investment and Growth in Low-Income Countries”, IMF Working Paper Series, 03/249, 1-24.
  • Chowdhury, A.R. (2001), “External Debt and Growth in Developing Countries, A Sensitivity and Casual Analysis”, WIDER Discussion Paper, 2001/95, 1-22.
  • Cohen, D. (1993), “Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980’s”, The American Economic Review, 83(3), 437-449.
  • Connolly, M. & J. Devereux (1995), “The Natural Real Exchange Rate”, the Fundamental Determinants of the Exchange Rate, Jerome Stein (ed.), Oxford University Press.
  • Cordella, T. & L.A. Ricci & M. Ruiz-Arranz (2005), “Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt Growth Link”, IMF Working Paper Series, 05/223, 1-55.
  • Cunningham, R.T. (1993), “The Effects of Debt Burden on Economic Growth in Heavily Indebted Developing Nations”, Journal of Economic Development, 18(1), 115-126.
  • Daud, S.N.M. & J.M. Podivinsky (2011), “Debt-Growth Nexus: A Spatial Econometrics Approach for Developing Countries”, Transition Studies Review, 1, 1-15.
  • Diamond, P.A. (1965), “National Debt in a Neoclassical Growth Model”, The American Economic Review, 55, 1126-1150.
  • Easterly, W.R. (2001), “Growth Implosions and Debt Explosions: Do Growth Slowdowns Cause Public Debt Crises?”, Contributions to Macroeconomics, 1(1), 1-24.
  • Greenidge, K. & R. Craigwell & C. Thomas & L. Drakes (2012), “Threshold Effects of Sovereign Debt: Evidence from the Caribbean”, IMF Working Paper, 12/157, 1-22.
  • Fasu, A.K. (1996), “The Impact of External Debt on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa”, Journal of Economic Development, 21(1), 93-118.
  • Hameed, A. & H. Ashraf & M.A. Chaudhory (2008), “External Debt and Its Impact on Economic and Business Growth in Pakistan”, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 20, 132-140.
  • Irons, J. & J. Bivens (2010), “Government Debt and Economic Growth”, EPI Briefing Paper, Economic Policy Institute, July, 1-9.
  • Krueger, A.O. (1987), “Debt, Capital Flows and LDC Growth”, The American Economic Review, 77(2), 159-164.
  • Krugman, P. (1988), “Financing vs. Forgiving a Debt Overhang”, Journal of Development Economics, 29, 253-268.
  • Kumar, M.S. & J. Woo (2010), “Public Debt and Growth”, IMF Working Paper, 174, 1-46.
  • Mbire, B. & M. Atingi (1997), “Growth and Foreign Debt: the Ugandan Experience”, <http://www.aercafrico.org/DOCUMENTS/RPGG.PDF>, 14.02.2012.
  • Pattillo, C. & H. Poirson & L. Ricci (2004), “What are the Channels Through Which External Debt Affects Growth?”, IMF Working Paper, 04/15, 1-33.
  • Presbitero, A.F. (2005), The Debt-Growth Nexus: An Empirical Analysis, <http://www.unicott.it/convegno/open_ekonomy/Allegati/debt_growth_presbitero.pdf>, 02.08.2011.
  • Presbitero, A.F. (2008), “The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment”, The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2, 1-28.
  • Ramakrishna, G. (2002), “External Debt of Ethiopia: An Empirical Analysis of Debt and Growth”, Journal of Business and Public Affairs, 29-35.
  • Reinhart, C.M. & K.S. Rogoff (2010), “Growth in a Time of Debt”, American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 100, 573-578.
  • Sachs, J. (1989), “The Debt Overhang of Developing Countries”, in: Debt Stabilization and Development: Essays in Memory of Carlos Diaz Alejandro, ed. by Guillermo Calvo and others (Oxford: Basil Blackwell).
  • Schalarek, A. (2004), Debt and Economic Growth in Developing Industrial Countries, <http://project.nek.lu.se/publications/workpap/Papers/WP05_34.pdf>, 30.12.2013.
  • Sen, S. & K.M. Kasibhotlo & D.B. Stewart (2007), “Debt Overhang and Economic Growth-the Asian and the Latin American Experiences”, Economic Systems, 31, 3-11.
  • Sıddıqui, R. & A. Malik (2001), “Debt and Economic Growth in South Asia”, The Pakistan Development Review, 40(4), 677-688.
  • Weng, C.K. & E.Y. Meu & L.K. Hoang & T.K. Ean & T.W. Shun (2011), Debt, Budget Deficit and Economic Growth of Malaysia, <http://eprints.utar.edu.my/282/1/FE-2011-0803715.pdf>, 27.02.2011.
There are 35 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Burcu Berke

Publication Date January 22, 2016
Submission Date January 10, 2016
Published in Issue Year 2016 Volume: 24 Issue: 27

Cite

APA Berke, B. (2016). Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 24(27), 121-138. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.12580
AMA Berke B. Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. January 2016;24(27):121-138. doi:10.17233/se.12580
Chicago Berke, Burcu. “Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 24, no. 27 (January 2016): 121-38. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.12580.
EndNote Berke B (January 1, 2016) Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi 24 27 121–138.
IEEE B. Berke, “Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 24, no. 27, pp. 121–138, 2016, doi: 10.17233/se.12580.
ISNAD Berke, Burcu. “Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi 24/27 (January 2016), 121-138. https://doi.org/10.17233/se.12580.
JAMA Berke B. Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2016;24:121–138.
MLA Berke, Burcu. “Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 24, no. 27, 2016, pp. 121-38, doi:10.17233/se.12580.
Vancouver Berke B. Avrupa Birliği’nde Kamu Borç Stokunun Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Sosyoekonomi. 2016;24(27):121-38.
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