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Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli

Year 2019, Volume: 27 Issue: 39, 245 - 256, 31.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.14

Abstract

Bu çalışmada mali alan ölçüm yöntemlerinden birisi olan Ostry vd. yaklaşımının kuramsal temelinin incelenmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda yaklaşımın dayandırıldığı varsayımlar başta olmak üzere “mali yorgunluk” ve “borç limiti” kavramları anlatılmaya çalışılmış ve yaklaşımın, ülkelerin mali alanının doğru ölçülebilmesi için gerekli olan bütünsel temele sahip olup olmadığı incelenmiştir. Sonuç olarak yaklaşımın görece sağlam kuramsal temeller üzerine kurulduğu söylenebilir. Ancak yaklaşımın bu sağlam temellere paralel olarak geçerliliğini ve güncelliğini koruması, literatürdeki yeni teorik gelişmelere ve ülkelerin edindikleri özgün ekonomik tecrübelere ayak uydurabilmesi sonucu mümkün olabilecektir.

References

  • Bastos, F. & Pineda, E. (2013), “Fiscal Space of Brazilian States”, Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper, IDB-DP-310, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.
  • Blanchard, O. (1990), “Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 79, 1-34.
  • Bohn, H. (1998), “The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 949-963.
  • Bohn, H. (2008), “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States”, CESifo Working Paper Series, 1446, 15-49.
  • Celasun, O., Debrun, X. & Ostry, J. (2007), “Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A “Fan-Chart” Approach”, IMF Staff Papers, 53(3), 401-425.
  • Cimadomo, J., Claeys, P. & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2014), “How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?”, European Economic Review, 1-38.
  • Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Mendoza, E., Ostry, J. & Qureshi, M. (2011), “Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies”, NBER Working Paper Series, 16782, 1-49.
  • Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Mendoza, E., Ostry, J. & Qureshi, M. (2013), “Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies”, The Economic Journal, 123, F4-F30.
  • Ghosh, A., Ostry, J. & Qureshi, M. (2013), “Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, 131-163.
  • Hajnovič, F. & Zeman, J. (2013), “Fiscal Space in the Euro Zone”, Narodna Banka Slovenska, 21(2), 9-14.
  • Mendoza, E. & Oviedo, P. (2004), “Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer”, Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.
  • Ostry, J., Ghosh, A., Kim, J. & Qureshi, M. (2010), “Fiscal Space”, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/11, 1-24.
  • Şen, H., Sağbaş, İ. & Keskin, A. (2007), Bütçe Açıkları Ve Açık Finansman Politikası – Teori Ve Türkiye Uygulaması, Ankara: Orion Kitabevi.
  • Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) (2003), “Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is it Too High?”, World Economic Outlook, 113-152.
  • Zandi, M., Cheng, X. & Packard, T. (2011), “Fiscal Space”, Moodys Analytics Special Report, Moody’s Analytics, New York.

Estimating Fiscal Space: The Theoretical Framework of Ostry et al. Approach

Year 2019, Volume: 27 Issue: 39, 245 - 256, 31.01.2019
https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.14

Abstract

In this paper, it is aimed to examine the theoretical framework of Ostry et al. approach which is one of the methods to estimate fiscal space. In this direction, “fiscal fatigue” and “debt limit” concepts as well as assumptions are tried to explain. In addition, it is examined whether the approach has holistic basis to estimate properly fiscal space of countries. Consequently, it can be said that the approach is based on relatively sound theoretical frameworks. However, whether the approach keeps pace with the new theoretical developments in the literature and countries’ unique economic experiences will test the validity and topicality of the approach.

References

  • Bastos, F. & Pineda, E. (2013), “Fiscal Space of Brazilian States”, Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper, IDB-DP-310, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.
  • Blanchard, O. (1990), “Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators”, OECD Economics Department Working Papers, 79, 1-34.
  • Bohn, H. (1998), “The Behavior of U.S. Public Debt and Deficits”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 949-963.
  • Bohn, H. (2008), “The Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the United States”, CESifo Working Paper Series, 1446, 15-49.
  • Celasun, O., Debrun, X. & Ostry, J. (2007), “Primary Surplus Behavior and Risks to Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Market Countries: A “Fan-Chart” Approach”, IMF Staff Papers, 53(3), 401-425.
  • Cimadomo, J., Claeys, P. & Poplawski-Ribeiro, M. (2014), “How do Experts Forecast Sovereign Spreads?”, European Economic Review, 1-38.
  • Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Mendoza, E., Ostry, J. & Qureshi, M. (2011), “Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies”, NBER Working Paper Series, 16782, 1-49.
  • Ghosh, A., Kim, J., Mendoza, E., Ostry, J. & Qureshi, M. (2013), “Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies”, The Economic Journal, 123, F4-F30.
  • Ghosh, A., Ostry, J. & Qureshi, M. (2013), “Fiscal Space and Sovereign Risk Pricing in a Currency Union”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 34, 131-163.
  • Hajnovič, F. & Zeman, J. (2013), “Fiscal Space in the Euro Zone”, Narodna Banka Slovenska, 21(2), 9-14.
  • Mendoza, E. & Oviedo, P. (2004), “Fiscal Solvency and Macroeconomic Uncertainty in Emerging Markets: The Tale of the Tormented Insurer”, Inter-American Development Bank Discussion Paper, Inter-American Development Bank, Washington, D.C.
  • Ostry, J., Ghosh, A., Kim, J. & Qureshi, M. (2010), “Fiscal Space”, IMF Staff Position Note, SPN/10/11, 1-24.
  • Şen, H., Sağbaş, İ. & Keskin, A. (2007), Bütçe Açıkları Ve Açık Finansman Politikası – Teori Ve Türkiye Uygulaması, Ankara: Orion Kitabevi.
  • Uluslararası Para Fonu (IMF) (2003), “Public Debt in Emerging Markets: Is it Too High?”, World Economic Outlook, 113-152.
  • Zandi, M., Cheng, X. & Packard, T. (2011), “Fiscal Space”, Moodys Analytics Special Report, Moody’s Analytics, New York.
There are 15 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Fatih Akbayır 0000-0003-2831-619X

Ahmet Burçin Yereli 0000-0002-8746-6756

Publication Date January 31, 2019
Submission Date May 22, 2018
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 27 Issue: 39

Cite

APA Akbayır, F., & Yereli, A. B. (2019). Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli. Sosyoekonomi, 27(39), 245-256. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.14
AMA Akbayır F, Yereli AB. Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli. Sosyoekonomi. January 2019;27(39):245-256. doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.14
Chicago Akbayır, Fatih, and Ahmet Burçin Yereli. “Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry Vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli”. Sosyoekonomi 27, no. 39 (January 2019): 245-56. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.14.
EndNote Akbayır F, Yereli AB (January 1, 2019) Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli. Sosyoekonomi 27 39 245–256.
IEEE F. Akbayır and A. B. Yereli, “Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli”, Sosyoekonomi, vol. 27, no. 39, pp. 245–256, 2019, doi: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.14.
ISNAD Akbayır, Fatih - Yereli, Ahmet Burçin. “Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry Vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli”. Sosyoekonomi 27/39 (January 2019), 245-256. https://doi.org/10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.14.
JAMA Akbayır F, Yereli AB. Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli. Sosyoekonomi. 2019;27:245–256.
MLA Akbayır, Fatih and Ahmet Burçin Yereli. “Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry Vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli”. Sosyoekonomi, vol. 27, no. 39, 2019, pp. 245-56, doi:10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2019.01.14.
Vancouver Akbayır F, Yereli AB. Mali Alan Ölçümünde Ostry vd. Yaklaşımı’nın Kuramsal Temeli. Sosyoekonomi. 2019;27(39):245-56.